tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post2508323752075227225..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: Most valuable infielders - 2007 Reds minor leaguesjinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-42046735268116915802008-03-22T20:59:00.000-04:002008-03-22T20:59:00.000-04:00ya hes a really good coach.ya hes a really good coach.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-20421514948286191732008-03-22T00:20:00.000-04:002008-03-22T00:20:00.000-04:00Adam--cool!! -jAdam--cool!! -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-4070324000313035442008-03-21T22:45:00.000-04:002008-03-21T22:45:00.000-04:00to bad jerimiah piepkorn retired.he was good but i...to bad jerimiah piepkorn retired.he was good but i benifited from it! he is my new highschool baseball coach!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-54039303060290567452008-02-08T17:05:00.000-05:002008-02-08T17:05:00.000-05:00Hi Dave,AFAIK, the +/- numbers are fielding relati...Hi Dave,<BR/><BR/>AFAIK, the +/- numbers are fielding relative to others in their specific leagues. That's why I'm a bit worried about the numbers from rookie ball--we probably need an adjustment for league quality, as I'm guessing the bar for defense in rookie-ball is not as high as it is in AAA, especially at premier positions. Wouldn't be hard to calculate that estimate--I just don't have time to do it right now.<BR/><BR/>As for Eddie, remember, that's just one month's time, so your error bars are pretty large. Still, -1.4 runs x 6 months = ~-8 runs or so per season. That matches up pretty darn well to my estimate of -8 runs based on composite fielding estimates. So there's consistency. Players can always improve, but ~-1 win a year on defense might be where Eddie stays.<BR/><BR/>Overall (offense + defense), I had Eddie as a +17 run above replacement player last season. If he can improve his offense like a lot of us think he can, he might be a +25 RAR (+2.5 WAR) player next season, which is about average for a starter. That might be about the best we can reasonably hope for from the guy moving forward. .... not great, but far from worthless. -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-35924521790441339612008-02-08T15:05:00.000-05:002008-02-08T15:05:00.000-05:00Are these minor leaguers being compared to other m...Are these minor leaguers being compared to other minor leaguers? Just wondering. Also it was nice to see another fielding measurement system showing that EdE can't field. Sweet. If you go over to Redszone and just read their posts you would come away with the impression that Encarnacion is the second coming of Brooks Robinson or Mike Schmidt. Reality - what a concept. A negative 1.4 FRAA in only one month's work when (possibly) being compared to other minor leaguers. What would that work out to over a full season? Way to bring that leather, EdE. He better OPS at least .850, because his defense has shown to be woefully inadequate to this point in his career.texasdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17215541522980498371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-64502361315580187632008-02-06T01:15:00.000-05:002008-02-06T01:15:00.000-05:00I think we should take Doug's warnings with all du...I think we should take Doug's warnings with all due seriousness. But yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic about him. It'll be fun to see how he does in Dayton next year, both on offense and defense. -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-46974935865143750782008-02-06T00:57:00.000-05:002008-02-06T00:57:00.000-05:00brandon waring... wow. i had no idea that he had a...brandon waring... wow. i had no idea that he had any kind of defense to offer, and im really excited by it. he is easily my favorite unknown minor leaguer in the reds' system. there's probably a reason he wasn't drafted until the seventh round, but he absolutely rakes -- No. 2 in the NCAA in home runs last year. i know he's supposed to have a healthy-sized hole in his swing, but this seems like a guy you can dream about.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-40097601013582106252008-02-03T21:42:00.000-05:002008-02-03T21:42:00.000-05:00One other point about Waring--those 16 errors are ...One other point about Waring--those 16 errors are accounted for in his runs estimate. Therefore, he apparently made enough other plays to make up for screw-ups. <BR/><BR/>Whether his plus fielding rating in a half season last year predicts future plus performances is another question...'course, we could say the same thing about his hitting. :) -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-39572927576942457202008-02-03T15:25:00.000-05:002008-02-03T15:25:00.000-05:00Hi Doug,A few quick comments:1. I'm sure that leve...Hi Doug,<BR/><BR/>A few quick comments:<BR/><BR/>1. I'm sure that level of competition is a factor that should probably be adjusted, and that could definitely be factoring into Waring, Frazier, and Tordi's showings. AFAIK, these +/- numbers are relative to league in question, not all of the minors.<BR/><BR/>2. Also keep in mind that this is just a half-season of data for those players. Fielding probably isn't as variable as hitting, but our ability to assess fielding has much bigger error bars around it than our ability to assess hitting. So thinking of these as +-5 to 10 runs per 140 games is not unreasonable.<BR/><BR/>3. It's also possible that Frazier's decent enough now, but will likely decline as he fills out over the coming few years. That's purely conjecture on my part, of course--I've certainly never seen the guy play.<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-60330667427654863002008-02-03T13:35:00.000-05:002008-02-03T13:35:00.000-05:00I am not so sure how I feel about this. Maybe its ...I am not so sure how I feel about this. Maybe its because they were playing in rookie ball or something, but Todd Frazier isn't a shortstop according to anything I have seen. <BR/><BR/>Waring at third base is also something I have heard some mixed reviews on, and in just half a season he did have 16 errors. Over the course of a 162 game schedule that puts him on pace for about 35 errors. <BR/><BR/>Those were the ones that immediately jumped out at me.Doug Grayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06429070071208586169noreply@blogger.com