tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post5379842803688493145..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: Reds come back!jinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-18287874359129545522008-04-22T17:05:00.000-04:002008-04-22T17:05:00.000-04:00I view WPA as primarily a historical statistic. S...I view WPA as primarily a historical statistic. So, if you want to know the most important plays in a game, WPA directly quantifies that by reporting how much each player influenced a team's chances of winning. That's why I tend to focus on it when talking about games.<BR/><BR/>I do "believe" in clutch, based on the study in The Book, among others. However, indications are that it's a very minor skill, accounting for no more than a few "points" of OBP or wOBA difference among players in clutch situations. Therefore, I don't view WPA as particularly predictive of future performance, which I think is what you're getting at. <BR/><BR/>It's very hard to predict clutch performance based on past history--that's what the Great Clutch Project is all about. And thus far the "unclutch" best hitters are beating the pants off of the clutch group--especially in terms of influence on games: 1.87 WPA vs. -0.53 WPA. <BR/><BR/>A less context-dependent statistic is WPA/LI, which is also reported at fangraphs on their player pages and leader boards. It should be much more predictive than WPA in terms of future performance (and I think it is, though I can't remember the particular study).<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-45131054183082676782008-04-22T15:09:00.000-04:002008-04-22T15:09:00.000-04:00Where do you stand on clutch hitting? Do you belie...Where do you stand on clutch hitting? Do you believe in it or not? Why would a home run in the first inning be worth more than a game-winning home run in the 10th? I understand all about leveraged situations, but still in all,<BR/>WPA smacks of clutch to me. Just interested in your view on this.texasdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17215541522980498371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-88016683934775392972008-04-21T13:26:00.000-04:002008-04-21T13:26:00.000-04:00Right, whoops. I think I just have a Pavlovian so...Right, whoops. I think I just have a Pavlovian sort of response at this point--I see E5, my brain registers throwing error. :)<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-74683304227102962972008-04-21T09:58:00.000-04:002008-04-21T09:58:00.000-04:00Technically, it wasn't a throwing error this time....Technically, it wasn't a throwing error this time.Chris at Redleg Nationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03474147423587094139noreply@blogger.com