tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post6620751310256744990..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: Reds trade Hamilton for Volquez & Herrera -- Initial Impressionsjinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-25405954871740346202007-12-31T02:07:00.000-05:002007-12-31T02:07:00.000-05:00Dave, they are not final standings projections. R...Dave, they are not final standings projections. Read the fine print. :) After rosters are more finalized and all teams have their ZIPS projections out I will run a similiar sim with a much larger sample size. A ten game head to head sample size will give you a few flukey results. Last year the final pre-season sim had the Red Sox winning the W.S. over the Cubs.<BR/>vr, XeiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-5774716547594468172007-12-31T00:57:00.000-05:002007-12-31T00:57:00.000-05:00Those projections are ridiculous...there is no way...Those projections are ridiculous...there is no way the Cubs finish in the basement of the league. No wayDave from Louisvillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699384821389899745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-63151254962936846962007-12-30T21:25:00.000-05:002007-12-30T21:25:00.000-05:00The Reds came out on top of the Dodger Sims NL Cen...The Reds came out on top of the <A HREF="http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">Dodger Sims</A> NL Central Winter Rankings. The simulator was used using 2008 ZIPS projections as input data.<BR/>vr, XeiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-61724956576843344692007-12-28T16:51:00.000-05:002007-12-28T16:51:00.000-05:00Hi Dave,Thanks, glad you liked it. As far as cont...Hi Dave,<BR/><BR/>Thanks, glad you liked it. <BR/><BR/>As far as continuing it...we'll see. VORP really isn't the best tool, as it ignores fielding, but it's a start. Without going through and estimating my own linear weights on everyone, win shares is probably the best approach...but I'm not crazy about win shares either. WARP's another alternative, but it's probably even worse.<BR/><BR/>The other problem with that study is the lack of context. Several commenters mentioned--and I agree--that most GM's probably have a positive balance. So we'd need to see just how high a typical GM's balance tends to be per unit time period to get a good idea of how well they did. <BR/><BR/>But anyway, it's an idea for the future. :)<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-68612768133810923182007-12-27T21:31:00.000-05:002007-12-27T21:31:00.000-05:00Justin,I was surfing through your archives and fou...Justin,<BR/><BR/>I was surfing through your archives and found an article from May 22nd evaluating Krivsky. Great article, have you considered doing this on a regular basis?? VORP looks like a great objective evaluation tool of GMs.Dave from Louisvillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699384821389899745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-80049434914439462042007-12-23T08:38:00.000-05:002007-12-23T08:38:00.000-05:00Scott,If the Reds can't develop pitching, quite fr...Scott,<BR/><BR/>If the Reds can't develop pitching, quite frankly they're never going to win anyway. So they might as well go for it and assume they can get Volquez to work out. I'm choosing to feel confident in the Reds' scouting and player development at this point--they do have one of the strongest minor systems in baseball, and it just got stronger witht his deal.<BR/>-Justinjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-57442664083251793662007-12-23T01:59:00.000-05:002007-12-23T01:59:00.000-05:00Dave, I would normally agree with you if the Reds ...Dave, <BR/><BR/>I would normally agree with you if the Reds have ever shown the ability to develop pitching. Unfortunately, they never have.sledridgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13645390623931588204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-160497658892562422007-12-22T21:57:00.000-05:002007-12-22T21:57:00.000-05:00I really like this move, but one thing is for sure...I really like this move, but one thing is for sure..... This move takes huge balls on both sides. You have to love it when teams swap guys with the upside of these two. I'll take a MLB ready pitcher with a high ceiling over 5-tool OF anyday.Dave from Louisvillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699384821389899745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-8775585485600362582007-12-22T16:23:00.000-05:002007-12-22T16:23:00.000-05:00It obviously takes 2 to tango. I really would have...It obviously takes 2 to tango. I really would have hoped they would have traded Votto and Hattie instead. Then Dunn could move to 1st. That would have made room in the OF. I was really excited to see what Hamilton was going to do this year; and he seemed to be happy in Cincy. I'll change my tune if Bruce hits .290 and 25 HRs, and Volquez throws 3.50 and 225 Ks.sledridgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13645390623931588204noreply@blogger.com