tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post8170962623952009522..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: Where should they be playing?jinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-2706043497010467592007-11-20T12:07:00.000-05:002007-11-20T12:07:00.000-05:00If that $12M can be pushed toward future team payr...If that $12M can be pushed toward future team payrolls, yes. But it seems to me that most of the time those savings are just pocketed as profit. ... And then there's again the issue of whether you can trade Dunn prior to next July because of his no trade clause.<BR/><BR/>Besides, I'm not sure that the Reds won't be contenders. The division isn't strong. If Harang continues his dominance, Arroyo comes back with a solid 4ish ERA, Belisle performs like his '07 peripherals say he can, Bailey breaks out like he potentially could, the Reds might suddenly have the best rotation in the division. And if Votto and/or Bruce can break through on offense, all the sudden the Reds are looking pretty competitive.<BR/><BR/>Lots of ifs, and I'm not saying it's going to happen. But I'm an advocate of trying to win every year as long as you're not severely hurting your potential for long-term success.<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-32330378112441412952007-11-20T06:38:00.000-05:002007-11-20T06:38:00.000-05:00To follow up on TD's comment, hypothetically (just...To follow up on TD's comment, hypothetically (just accepting the notion that the difference would only be 7.7 runs though that's clearly debatable), if the Reds aren't a realistic contender in '08, wouldn't the smart move be to trade those 7.7 runs for $12M?jojohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17045559868869042344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-30215150523659855822007-11-16T14:51:00.000-05:002007-11-16T14:51:00.000-05:00Hi Dave,We've talked about this before, but I'm sk...Hi Dave,<BR/><BR/>We've talked about this before, but I'm skeptical that Hopper can produce at that clip for another season. His peripherals indicate that he was a bit lucky (though his bunting ability is a wild card...). Dunn, on the other hand, has been consistently able to perform at that level over the past several years ('06 excluded). So it's not quite as straightforward as that. Furthermore, there's the issue of whether one can rationally spend $12 million on the pitching that is currently available in the free agent market. ... and trades aren't a whole lot easier except for guys like Matt Morris.<BR/><BR/>That all said, I see your point. :)<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-38183260848556829012007-11-16T11:05:00.000-05:002007-11-16T11:05:00.000-05:00If you left Hatteberg and Freel out of the equatio...If you left Hatteberg and Freel out of the equation and simply switched Hopper and Dunn you would pick up 27.4 runs defensively and lose 35.1 runs offensively. That is, if I am reading the numbers correctly. This would be a net loss of 7.7 runs (or about 1 win). Of course you will be paying Adam Dunn 13 million in 08, while at the same time Norris Hopper will be making about .5 million. And you could turn around and use that 12.5 million dollar savings on improving your pitching. And I would imagine that by using that 12.5 million on pitching you should be able to pick up more than one win.texasdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17215541522980498371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-14200368678932296902007-11-16T10:44:00.000-05:002007-11-16T10:44:00.000-05:00@Vegas - thanks, glad you liked it. The approach ...@Vegas - thanks, glad you liked it. The approach is not mine though--Tango Tiger used the same approach to categorize players by position in the thread where he reported his weights (linked above). I just follow the leaders... :) Though I probably should have been more obvious in how I cited him.<BR/><BR/>@Joel,<BR/><BR/>All I can say is that the summed responses of 22, 37, and 23 ballots by "hard core" baseball fans (the ones who take the time to rate players) over the past three years rate Dunn's Hands as 10, 5, and 26, respectively. Might "hands" in the outfield be different from "hands" in the infield? Maybe. But I'm guessing they're correlated. ;)<BR/><BR/>In fairness, the Fans'-based estimates of fielding vs. average in left field and at first base for Dunn are more or less equivalent. But it might not be the case that he'd be particularly better at first... <BR/><BR/>As I said, there are a Bazillion holes in this little study, but it's fun to think about.<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-4674346593518420282007-11-16T07:25:00.000-05:002007-11-16T07:25:00.000-05:00Freel, Hopper, and Castro in the lineup? That is ...Freel, Hopper, and Castro in the lineup? That is some run prevention right there, on defense and offense. :)<BR/><BR/>I'm not convinced that Dunn can't play first base. I may have selective memory (completely likely), but it seemed to me that his hands were fine except when he was around the wall or diving. I don't think he will be gold glove at first, but I think he'd be better than he's credited for, though probably still slightly below average.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-14885308153872767292007-11-16T02:26:00.000-05:002007-11-16T02:26:00.000-05:00Despite the flaws, this was a really cool post- I'...Despite the flaws, this was a really cool post- I've never seen anyone do this kind of analysis. Great read.Vegas Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com