tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post9128554215408798580..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: 2006 Reds Hitting Reviewjinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-49328275405842537212007-02-23T16:57:00.000-05:002007-02-23T16:57:00.000-05:00Absolutely, J. This is fantastic and incredibly f...Absolutely, J. This is fantastic and incredibly fun to read.<BR/><BR/>Keep up the good work!Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12190339169526356134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-51346972777928948932007-02-23T01:38:00.000-05:002007-02-23T01:38:00.000-05:00Thanks folks. I was pretty excited to publish thi...Thanks folks. I was pretty excited to publish this, and it's great to receive such an enthusiastic response. I'm working on the pitching review right now, though it might take a few more nights to put together. -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-91902592447225758602007-02-22T21:49:00.000-05:002007-02-22T21:49:00.000-05:00I know many have said it already, but it deserves ...I know many have said it already, but it deserves it many times over: awesome work. Awesome awesome awesome. I can't wait for the pitching review.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-19247773902380106532007-02-22T19:44:00.000-05:002007-02-22T19:44:00.000-05:00Wow. Great stuff. A picture really is worth a th...Wow. Great stuff. A picture really is worth a thousand words.BubbaFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12416316223741178799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-55537993859797883002007-02-22T12:21:00.000-05:002007-02-22T12:21:00.000-05:00You may be right J (about PrOPS), though I still t...You may be right J (about PrOPS), though I still think .930 is a more realistic number for his OPS, it's not too far off of the .950 that you suggest.<BR/><BR/>I need to correct something in my post. I said he would need a BABIP around .500 to bat .293, but that was a silly mistake on my part. I forgot to take out the HR as hits in my BABIP calc and it's really more like .380, not .500. I think .260 is about the best we can expect from Dunn for a batting average if his strike outs stay at the level they've been at the last 3 seasons. Personally I don't mind if he's still OPSing at a .900+ rate. I think he'll get back there in 2007.Joelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08493717107262478265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-55424880431339435692007-02-22T11:59:00.000-05:002007-02-22T11:59:00.000-05:00Just an additional small comment--I was thinking a...Just an additional small comment--I was thinking about this in bed last night, and I think the WPA vs. VORP comparison is probably inappropriate. The reason is that VORP adjusts for player position, whereas WPA does not. While that's normally a wonderful feature for VORP, it makes for some invalid comparisons.<BR/><BR/>I'll try to re-do that part of the analysis with Runs Created or Win Shares tonight, as those aren't position-adjusted. It should make some guys, especially Phillips, look much better--his VORP is much higher than his relative RC because he's at a low-offense position. -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-69165385194037175842007-02-22T11:55:00.000-05:002007-02-22T11:55:00.000-05:00Hi Joel,It is true that Dunn consistently has unde...Hi Joel,<BR/><BR/>It is true that Dunn consistently has underperformed PrOPS in his career, but not to the degree that he underperformed last year. Here's the difference between OPS and PrOPS for him the last three seasons:<BR/>2004 -0.035<BR/>2005 -0.054<BR/>2006 -0.145<BR/><BR/>It may very well be that an extreme flyball/strikeout hitter like Dunn might not be well-predicted by PrOPS, but the difference is probably more on the order of 0.05 OPS points, not three times that--which is what we saw from this last past season. While he might not have hit 1.000, I think that, with "normal" luck, he could certainly have hit 0.950.<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-82459357972496915672007-02-22T09:30:00.000-05:002007-02-22T09:30:00.000-05:00First of all, excellent post. There are times whe...First of all, excellent post. There are times when I think about getting back into the game and then you come along with stuff like this and show me that I am unnecessary. Great work!<BR/><BR/>I'm not as sold on PrOPS, especially for someone like Dunn. If you look at <A HREF="http://hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=props&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=props&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&season_filter%5B%5D=2005&season_filter%5B%5D=2004&league_filter%5B%5D=2&team_filter%5B%5D=CIN&pos_filter%5B%5D=7&Submit=Submit" REL="nofollow">his numbers</A>, he consistently underperforms his PrOPS every year. The thing that sticks out for me is is PrAVE and it makes me think that PrOPS breaks for someone with such a high percentage of strikeouts. Honestly, I can't imagine a world where Dunn would bat .293 in a season. His BABIP would have to be around .500 to accomplish that.<BR/><BR/>All that being said, I think Dunn was unlucky last year. I did a diary at Red Reporter back in January on <A HREF="http://www.redreporter.com/story/2007/1/7/155118/3700" REL="nofollow">Dunn's batted balls</A> and I found that Dunn had about 10 more singles on line drives than expected and about 14 fewer extra base hits than expected based on his previous levels. The big thing that caught my eye, and that I think you've mentioned before, was that Dunn was terrible at getting hits on ground balls. It seemed like teams were playing the shift against him much more last season, and even though he hit considerably fewer GB than previous seasons, he still managed to have about 8 hits fewer than his previous rates on GB.<BR/><BR/>So, much like PrOPS predicts, it's entirely possible that Dunn could put up a very good season by doing nothing different except getting hits to sneak through more frequently (though he will need to up his HR per line drive rate as well). I doubt he'll ever put up a 1.000+ OPS with all of those strikeouts, but I don't think .930 is out of the question. Hopefully he can manage it, because like you said, he's probably the key to the 2007 offense.Joelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08493717107262478265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-80330206357822815642007-02-22T00:52:00.000-05:002007-02-22T00:52:00.000-05:00Effing good stuff, J. The Phillips thing has been...Effing good stuff, J. <BR/><BR/>The Phillips thing has been bugging me for a few weeks. I used to think he had a bad second half, but it's something else - up and down from month to month. Maybe that's typical of a guy whose production is so batting-average-dependent, but it worries the heck out of me.Chris at Redleg Nationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03474147423587094139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-58213191018615224932007-02-21T23:57:00.000-05:002007-02-21T23:57:00.000-05:00Thanks! -jThanks! -jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-45678524725182846502007-02-21T23:31:00.000-05:002007-02-21T23:31:00.000-05:00Great work.Great work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com