tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post114378494157526940..comments2023-07-09T11:23:36.355-04:00Comments on On Baseball & The Reds: Great American Ballpark is Not a Hitter's Paradisejinazhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144257021433073092006-04-05T13:10:00.000-04:002006-04-05T13:10:00.000-04:00Ahh, I thought I still had an hour before the game...Ahh, I thought I still had an hour before the game started! ::fumbles for cbs gamecenter::jinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144256549235195782006-04-05T13:02:00.000-04:002006-04-05T13:02:00.000-04:00Gotcha. I'll have to temper my optimism for Arroy...Gotcha. I'll have to temper my optimism for Arroyo accordingly, though the two spot he just gave up to the Cubs also did that.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13441809988487585009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144184643110850232006-04-04T17:04:00.000-04:002006-04-04T17:04:00.000-04:00Hi Ken,I think you may have it backwards: GABP has...Hi Ken,<BR/><BR/>I think you may have it backwards: GABP has a high park factor when it comes to balls hit to the outfield, meaning that those balls tend to convert into runs more often than at an average park. HR's are also positively effected by the park.<BR/><BR/>In contrast, ground balls tend to result in fewer runs and more outs than at an average park. This means that it is absolutely in the Reds' best interest to seek out ground-ball pitchers. Fly ball guys like Milton and Williams are probably always going to struggle in our park...though as you point out, other factors contributed to Milton's awful year last year--he was just as bad on the road, and you can't blame GABP for that:<BR/>http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2006/03/on-eric-milton.html).<BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144182535497975902006-04-04T16:28:00.000-04:002006-04-04T16:28:00.000-04:00I'm still having a hard time believing that GABP i...I'm still having a hard time believing that GABP is easier on GBs versus FBs, though you certainly seem to have the stats to prove it. Does this mean we should seek FB pitchers over GB guys? If so, are there FB pitchers that give up relatively few HRs? <BR/><BR/>If FB pitchers are the way to go, then Williams and Arroyo were good pick ups. And maybe Milton will rebound. Milton, as bad as he was last year, actually gave up fewer HRs than the previous year in Philly, where he pitched respectably (201 IPs, 4.75 ERA). His BABIP was really high, indicating that maybe bad luck and defense played larger roles in his 2005 floggings than most thought.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13441809988487585009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144035732202962422006-04-02T23:42:00.000-04:002006-04-02T23:42:00.000-04:00Hi Lars. It shouldn't be that sensitive to defens...Hi Lars. It shouldn't be that sensitive to defense, unless the defense has happened to play differently at home and away. These park factors are calculated by evaluating both how many runs the Reds score at home vs. away as well as how visiting teams play at GABP vs. elsewhere. Therefore, unless there's a big difference (by chance) in how defense has happened to perform at home vs. away, the Reds' defense shouldn't affect the park estimations. That's part of the reason they use multiple years to calculate these park factors. It reduces the effect of chance events.<BR/><BR/>Although, as it happens, the Reds defense (both infield and outfield) has been below average for several years now. Aside from Encarnacion, all (I think) Reds infielders who have played a substantial number of games in the infield defense over the past several years have been had below average range ('05 team runs saved = -0.32 --> http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php). <BR/>-jjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1144023220939345082006-04-02T20:13:00.000-04:002006-04-02T20:13:00.000-04:00I have the same question. If it is death to groun...I have the same question. If it is death to groundballs, is it the park? Could it be the IF defense? Have the Reds IF's been that good? Have the same players been there for a few years? Or is it really the grounds crew?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1143827701072687712006-03-31T12:55:00.000-05:002006-03-31T12:55:00.000-05:00Very good question, and I really don't know the an...Very good question, and I really don't know the answer to this. It could be as simple as the habits of the groundscrew in terms of the height/density/type of grass used, the slope of the infield, etc. I can see the weather having some sort of effect as well...humidity x grass interactions or something. But I don't really know.<BR/><BR/>What I can report is that a) those groundball effects were based on 4-years (or, in GABP's case, 3 years) of data. Furthermore, the authors reported reasonably strong (though not overwhelming) year to year correlations for those numbers. So whatever the effect is, it's unlikely to be due to chance alone. Unfortunately, I don't have the data in front of me or I'd report the actual correlation (I'm at work). -JinAZjinazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-1143821177842572862006-03-31T11:06:00.000-05:002006-03-31T11:06:00.000-05:00That's really interesting. But I have one sort of...That's really interesting. But I have one sort of speculative question. What exactly makes one ballpark worse than another when it comes to groundball-based offense? And specifically, what do you think it is about GABP that has this affect. With HRs, it's easy to point to outfield dimensions, wind conditions and altitude (in one case) to explain why some parks get more HRs than others. It's not so clear with groundballs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com