Bergolla, Kata, and Shackelford sent down

As Marc reported, Brian Shackelford, Matt Kata, and William Bergolla were optioned to Louisville today. Kata and Bergolla are not a surprise, and frankly neither is Shackelford despite comments I've seen from fans. Here are his stats/projections:

Year/Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/A+	27.3	6.6	2.6	0.33	0.205	1.98	3.09	5.47	4.4	---
2003/AA	20.0	8.6	6.3	1.35	0.359	6.30	5.35	9.00	-8.2	---
2003/AAA	15.7	5.7	4.0	0.00	0.288	2.29	3.26	4.20	3.3	---
2004/AAA	73.0	7.8	5.2	0.74	0.263	3.58	4.27	5.35	10.0	--
2005/AAA	32.7	5.8	2.8	0.28	0.333	5.23	3.23	4.18	0.1	57%
2005/CIN	29.7	5.2	2.7	0.61	0.224	2.43	4.45	4.40	9.1	45%
PECOTA75	42.0	5.6	4.1	1.07	0.283	4.16	4.87	4.79	4.8	47%
PECOTA	36.0	5.5	4.3	1.25	0.299	5.06	5.20	5.55	0.5	48%
PECOTA25	32.3	5.3	4.5	1.67	0.324	6.64	5.92	6.94	-5.9	49%
ZIPS	62.0	6.4	4.6	0.87	0.283	4.94	4.59	---	---	---

Luck was a strange beast for Shackelford last year: in AAA he was extremely unlucky, as is evidenced by his 0.333 BABIP, which largely drove his very high ERA there (compare that to his FIP/PERA, which are both based on peripherals). With the Reds, however, he was extremely lucky. He had a 0.224 BABIP (amazingly low, almost always due to luck), and his FIP and PERA were in the mid-4 range. I think he's likely to be a bit better than his projections indicate, and he'll be at the top of the list should we need a pitcher (particularly a left hander) up in Cinci. He is starting to get up there in age (29), but the guy's only been pitching full time since '01 when he converted from a 1B (though he did both pitch and hit at the University of Oklahoma). I'm sure we'll see him again this year.
-j