Friday, September 29, 2006

And so begins the end (of the regular season)

Last series of the year starts tonight. Here are the possible final records for the team, based on what happens in this series with the Bucs:

Sweep the Pirates: 82-80 (0.506)
Win 2 of 3: 81-81 (0.500)
Win 1 of 3: 80-82 (0.494)
Swept by Pirates: 79-83 (0.488)

Ok, now I'm trying to figure this out, so correct me if I'm wrong (update: I've modified the following AGAIN based on the comments -- thanks folks, you people rock!). For the Reds to make the playoffs, I believe that following must occur:
  • The Cardinals must either:
    • lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. The Reds would have a better record than the Cards in that case.
    • or, lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brew Crew, and the Reds win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates. This will force the Cardinals to make up the previously postponed September 17th game vs. the Giants. If they lose that game, the Reds would force a single-game playoff with the Cards to determine the division champion.
    • or, lose 2 of 3 of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. Again, this would force the make-up game, which the Cards must lose to net the Reds a single-game playoff.
  • AND The Astros must either:
    • Lose all of their remaining games, in which case the Reds must win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates to tie them and force a one-game playoff.
    • Lose all of their remaining games, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. This would put the Reds ahead of the 'Stros.
    • or, Lose 2 of their 3 remaining games, in which case the Reds must sweep the Pirates to force a tie.
So, in sum, the Reds must win this final series to have any shot at the playoffs. If they sweep, they have a better chance at avoiding a single-game playoff vs. either the Astros or Cards and just winning the division outright. In any case, both the Astros and Cards have to lose their final series for the Reds to advance.

Could the Reds still be a playoff team? Sure, why not? The Reds do have the advantage of playing against the weakest team of the bunch. So go Reds, Braves, and Brewers, and boo on the Pirates, Cards, and Astros! :)

I gotta say, it sure is exciting to still have the playoffs remain a legitimate (though rather remote - BP puts the odds between 0.67% and 0.88%, though that seems rather low to me...) possibility entering the final three-game series of the year.

8 comments:

  1. What I want to know is this: If the Reds sweep Pittsburgh and the Cards win one of the remaining three from Milwaukee, then the Cards would be 82-79 and the Reds would be 82-80. Would the Cards have to play that makeup game then? If I understand it right, they would have to play that 162nd game IF they are 1/2 game BEHIND the Reds or 'Stros, but I'm not sure.

    That we're even discussing tiebreaker scenarios with the Reds at this point in the season is pretty fun, so if things don't pan out now, at least we had playoff hopes through Game 159!

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  2. Answered my own question -- from mlb.com:

    If: The separation between St. Louis and its pursuers remains a half-game, either way, after the weekend, the Cardinals would host the Giants on Monday in the makeup of a Sept. 17 rainout.

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  3. Thanks folks! I wasn't sure how that make-up game worked at this point in the season. But I'm delighted to hear that this is the case, as it makes it slightly more likely that the Reds could make the playoffs. slightly being the word to stress...and we're already dealing with unlikely scenarios...but yeah, it sure is fun to still be able to dream at this point. -j

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  4. I was concerned that St. Louis would put us out with one win in their four-game set with Milwaukee. But, if St. Louis wins one of its last three, then they'll be 82-79. So, the sky isn't falling if the Cards win one of the three -- there'd still be hope. None of this matters if the Reds lose any one of the three remaining, but stranger things have happened, right?

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  5. Well if the Reds lose 1 of 3, and the Cards and Stros get swept, seems to me that we still force the Cards to play Monday and have a chance.

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  6. Yeah, that's correct. I will update the original post -- I was unaware of the rules regarding the Cardinals make-up game (see posts above :) ).
    -j

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  7. In the third scenario with St. Louis, if the Cards lose two out of their remaining three to Milwaukee, then the Reds would have to sweep. If the Reds took two of three and the Cards took two of three, then the Cards would be 82-79 and the Reds would be 81-81. Even with the makeup game, the Cards couldn't finish lower than us.

    Sorry to be a pest! :-) I just love the tiebreaker stuff.

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  8. Right, whoops! :) Fixed.

    Unfortunately, those damn Cards just beat the Brewers 10-5. That puts a serious dent in the Reds playoff plans. Still not impossible, but things are harder now. -j

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