John Erardi has another nice article about Adam Dunn in today's Cincinnati Enquirer, which touches on both his status as the Reds' best offensive ballplayer as well as his status as a lightning rod for controversy. Among the features associated with this article are some quotes by both myself and Greg Gagus. Oh, and Steve Phillips, whoever he is. :]
There's also a great article about the power that the Brennamen(tm) have over fan opinion. I think it's really important to highlight how influential these guys can be...hopefully they will start to think a little bit about just how negative they are about this ballclub. Negativity like that is not fun to listen to, and is one of the reasons why I've often enjoyed listening to the road games more than home games this year--XM Radio only carries home announcers, so I get to listen to all the away announcers on road trips. At first I was disappointed this, but it's often been more of a blessing, as it gives me a chance to feel good about our team for a while.
Thanks again to John Erardi for continuing to involve us in the occasional Reds article. It's really fun to be able to contribute to these things, and the results are always things that I'm proud to be associated with!
Good stuff. Too bad they didn't actually quantify the value of Dunn's HRs, K's, BBs, and fielding. I guess that's too much to hope for.
ReplyDeleteOh, and I never realized how important it is not to kill a fan rally. Thanks, Steve.
We did some of that the last time Erardi was doing an article with me and the other guys on the panel, but this one was a bit more low-key.
ReplyDeleteI did send him total value estimates (vorp + fielding) for several Reds players, including Dunn. John and his editor wanted to wait on using that stuff, however, for a subsequent article on retooling the Reds.
-j
It's probably a good thing they kept those numbers out of the paper. A whole bunch of folks are gonna be mighty disappointed in AD's numbers if they post them. According to Baseball Prospectus, in 6 1/2 years Dunn is a +189 batting runs above average. In the same time frame he is -70 fielding runs above average. That would make him a net 119 runs above average. If you divide that by his 6.5 seasons it averages out to about 18.3 runs per season. That is a solid number, but nothing even close to approaching superstar status. It is nothing close to justifying a 13 million dollar contract. His past two seasons show him averaging a not-so-very-impressive +9 runs above average. Now maybe the numbers that Baseball Prospectus is showing are completely off-target. I do not pretend to be stat-savvy enough to know for sure. But BP seems like a respectable enterprise, so I am guessing they are, at the very least, in the ballpark. I can't wait to see the numbers Erardi tries to run by this time. It should prove interesting.
ReplyDeleteI'm not particularly keen on BPro's defensive numbers, but there's no question that Dunn's defense costs his overall value. My estimates have been that they all but negated his offense last season in what was a bad year for him offensively (or, at least, a bad last two months). This year, he's a good 25-30 runs over replacement.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, I can pretty much guarantee that any numbers that Erardi "tries to run by this time" will come from either myself, Joel, or Greg...and they will probably be a combination of all of our efforts. So don't blame the messenger--Erardi's doing a great thing by trying to get some objective, quantitative analysis into the Sunday paper. Heck of a lot better than the baseless opinions we usually see. -j
A note on BP's numbers. You've quoted the Above Average numbers, which are what they are, but I don't think they are as good as above replacement level in terms of information (though you can question whether BP properly defines replacement level). Dunn is a net 300 runs over replacement level in his career (according to BP). That seems a little high for me, especially since BP's FRAR seems low, but I think it is a more precise picture of what it would take to replace Dunn. Obviously, the question is muddier because there is Jay Bruce in AAA, but I was kind of hoping he would replace Griffey, not Dunn.
ReplyDeleteAs for Dunn's "value", BP has an estimator for that as well called MORP. Based on his production this past season, it estimates that Dunn is worth $12,607,228.63, so pretty much in line with what he'll make next year. THT's Net Win Shares Calculator puts his value at $13,228,759. Of course, you can question whether that "value" means the same to the Reds as any other team.