Well, perhaps not. Tom Tango posted this about an article on the San Diego Padres' Kevin Towers by Tom Verducci at SI.com:
Looks like Kevin Towers and the Padres know what they are doing. Free-agent relievers are incredibly overpaid. You can pick out the teams that have no idea that the replacement level for pitchers as relievers is so high. Orioles last year, and Phillies this year. I’m always shocked when starters are released, and not given a try as a reliever. If they were fighting for a job as the 5th starter (and basically, the 7th best pitcher on the team), doesn’t it make sense that they could fight for the #3 or #4 guy in the bullpen?I'll have more on valuation of relievers and starters in my next article on player value (sorry for the delay--been distracted with parents visiting, etc). But this argument here is not new. Think about all the ex-starters (and often failed starters) who have found their niche as relievers. Just naming those who have been associated with the Reds in recent years, we have David Weathers, Kent Mercker, Mike Remlinger, Chris Hammond, Josh Hancock, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Franklin... The list of those successfully going the other way is much more limited (Derek Lowe, .... uhhh... wait, I'm sure there's more...Danny Graves? No, that didn't work... hmm...).
Relieving is easier than starting. There are a variety of potential reasons for this, and I'm not sure that we really know the underlying causes. But there have been a good number of studies verifying that the little anecdote-based argument about this actually does correspond to the real differences in value.
Therefore, mining the failed starter ranks--especially those from the superior American League--might be a more efficient way to build up the Reds' bullpen than shelling out 3-4 million dollars at a time on established relievers. Might not get you a Cordero-esque closer, but it seems to be a good way to get some quality middle relief on the cheap.
I like a lot of what Towers says in that article. It seems like building a bullpen is a good place to be creative since most bullpen help is fairly cheap. I like the idea of mining failed starters from other organizations. I also like the idea of pulling some of the guys up from the minors who have had success. For the life of me, I can't understand why Carlos Guevara has spent 2 years in Chattanooga. I know he's a "trick pitch" pitcher (screwball), but then so was John Franco. He's struck out over 11 batters per 9 IP the last two years combined. Clearly he does something right.
ReplyDeleteI'd also like to see Ramon Ramirez, Josh Roenicke, and Pedro Viola get a look. I'm not saying fill the whole bullpen with inexperienced rookies, but I'd rather have cheap, replaceable players fail than pay a couple million to another "established reliever" like Stanton or Cormier and watch him suck it up.
I happened to hear Wayne Krivsky on XM's Baseball This Morning today, and he did not mention the relief situation. However he did say that the Reds would be looking to add a starter, either through free agency, trade, or from within the Reds system. (Cueto, maybe?)
ReplyDelete@Joel, completely agree. When a reliever is that dominant in the minor leagues, I don't have a problem with sending him into the majors and plugging him right into a middle relief role. We're seeing several of the upper-tier teams get aggressive about promoting young relievers, and with good results. And Jared Burton showed something about how quickly youngish arms can make the adjustment to the big leagues last season.
ReplyDeleteI'm a bit more conservative with starter development. But with relievers you can pick and choose the spots you use them, and can more quickly remove them on days they don't "have it."
@Bluzer, I'm bummed that I missed that interview--that show is on too darn early out here in AZ! :(
-j
Bluzer, that sounds like typical Krivsky, using a lot of words to say nothing. If you look at his statement, he basically said that the Reds aren't going with a 3- or 4-man rotation next year. Of course they're going to add a starter. Who else would be a possible lock to rotation outside of Harang, Arroyo, and possibly Bailey and Belisle? They need to add a starter - thru free agency, trade, or from the minors (is there any other way?) - because they don't have enough to fill a rotation yet.
ReplyDeleteThanks Krivsky for clearing that one up for us.