As I type this, Opening Day is just over 12 hours away. And with it has come Dusty Baker's first official lineup as a Reds manager, courtsey of John Fay:Corey Patterson CFAmong the most common (and convincing) critiques of Dusty's managerial tendencies is his selection of leadoff hitters. Statheads "know" that OBP rules all in the leadoff slot, right? Patterson and his PECOTA-projected 0.313 OBP is therefore an awful choice. Right?
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
I'm pretty sure it is. But I'm not positive, and I'd like to know how big of a deal it is. Fortunately, there's an excellent tool that can answer just this kind of question: John Beamer's Markov model from the Hardball Times 2008 Annual. Because it uses Markov Chains (described here), Beamer's model is a much better approach to understanding the dynamic nature of lineup interactions than simple regression equations (like in David Pinto's oft-cited lineup tool).
So, I'd like to set up a Lineup Showdown! To that end, I'm requesting that each of you reply to this post with two lineups:
1. Your "best" lineup using only Dusty Baker's Opening Day Starting Eight.
2. Your "best" lineup with your pick of players from the Reds' organization.
If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week.
Markov will tell us, for each lineup:
1. Its estimate for how many runs it should produce per game.
2. How many times each batting slot should lead off an inning.
3. Complete run expectancy frequency matrices for every out base & out state.
Should be fun!
I think Patterson feels like Womack to me....
ReplyDeleteBruce should be up...
I'll be there in the rain for this debauchery
If you'd rather have Bruce, give me a lineup with Bruce. :) -j
ReplyDeleteDusty's guys:
ReplyDelete1. Scott Hatteberg
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey Jr
4. Adam Dunn
5. Edwin Encarcion
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Corey Patterson
8. Javier Valentin
9. Aaron Harang
My guys: Righty on the hill
1. Joey Votto - 1B
2. Jeff Keppinger - SS
3. Adam Dunn - LF
4. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
5. Jay Bruce - CF
6. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
7. Brandon Phillips - 2B
8. Catcher
9. Pitcher
My guys: Lefty on the hill
1. Jeff Keppinger - 1B
2. Adam Dunn - LF
3. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
4. Brandon Phillips - 2B
5. Jay Bruce - CF
6. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
7. David Ross (if healthy)
8. Alex Gonzalez (switch with catcher if Ross isn't healthy)
9. Pitcher
Dusty's guys:
ReplyDelete1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Ken Griffey Jr
4. Adam Dunn
5. Edwin Encarcion
6. Scott Hatteberg
7. Javier Valentin
8. Corey Patterson
9. Pitcher
My guys:
1. Jeff Keppinger - SS
2. Brandon Phillips - 2B
3. Adam Dunn - LF
4. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
5. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
6. Jay Bruce - CF
7. Joey Votto - 1B
8. Catcher
9. Pitcher
Today's Players:
ReplyDelete1. Keppinger
2. Hatteberg
3. Phillips
4. Dunn
5. Griffey
6. Encarnacion
7. Patterson
8. Valentin
9. Harang
What Could Have Been*
1. Hopper LF
2. Keppinger SS
3. Dunn 1B
4. Phillips 2B
5. Griffey RF
6. Encarnacion 3B
7. Valentin C
8. Harang P
9. Freel CF
* if we'd got LaRussa instead of Baker
My lineup today:
ReplyDelete1. Jay Bruce
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey Jr
4. Adam Dunn
5. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Aaron Harang
Dusty's guys (vs RHP)
ReplyDelete1. Kepp
2. Votto
3. EE
4. Dunn
5. JR
6. Phillips
7. Javy
8. Patterson
9. P
Dusty vs. LHP
1. Kepp
2. Votto
3. EE
4. Dunn
5. JR
6. Phillips
7. Javy
8. P
9. Hopper (ain't I clever)
Organization vs. RHP:
1. Kepp
2. Dunn
3. JR
4. Bruce
5. Votto
6. EE
7. Phillips
8. Javy
9. P
vs. LHP
1. Bruce
2. Kepp
3. EE
4. Dunn
5. Andy Phillips
6. JR
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ryan Hanigan
9. P
Note: I acknowledge that mMy lineups are incredibly cheaty, since I don't have to pay attention to ego issues, or the L-R-L gospel. I assume the Markov model won't account for either. This lineup doesn't actually happen outside a Strat-O-Matic board - but hey, I'm trying to win a prize here.
Sorry - Switch JR and EE in my Dusty RHP lineup. Jr should bat #3; EE #5.
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the lineups folks! This is great fun.
One clarification: for Dusty's Guys, please go with his starting eight. This means Hatteberg, not Votto. :}
The reason for this is that I want to see how much of an effect strictly shuffling the lineup, rather than substituting players, has on the outcome of the model.
And Chris, yes, you're right that you can "cheat" by not worrying about lefty/righty issues. I have three lineups that I'm putting into the mix: one realistic Dusty's Eight, one realistic My Eight, and one in which I try to exploit the model by relying on what I learned in The Book. We'll see what works best. :)
-j
Dusty's:
ReplyDelete1) Keppinger
2) Votto
3) Dunn
4) Phillips
5) Griffey
6) Encarnacion
7) Patterson
8) Valentin
9) Harangatang
All-org:
1) Hopper/Freel
2) Keppinger
3) Dunn
4) Phillips
5) Griffey Jr.
6) Encarnacion
7) Votto
8) Ross/Valentin
9) Harangatang
w/ Bruce moving into the lineup on June 1st, replacing Freel/Hopper, Keppinger moves to #1, Votto to #2, and Bruce into #7
So "Dusty's Guys" means Patterson, and not "anyone else."
ReplyDeleteRevised:
Dusty's guys (vs RHP)
1. Kepp
2. Hatte
3. EE
4. Dunn
5. JR
6. Javy
7. BP
8. CPatterson
9. P
Dusty vs. LHP
1. Kepp
2. EE
3. Dunn
4. BP
5. JR
6. Hatte
7. Patterson
8. Javy
9. P
Organization vs. RHP:
1. Kepp
2. Dunn
3. JR
4. Bruce
5. Votto
6. EE
7. Phillips
8. Javy
9. P
vs. LHP
1. Bruce
2. Kepp
3. EE
4. Dunn
5. Andy Phillips
6. JR
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ryan Hanigan
9. P
Dusty's Guys:
ReplyDelete1. Hatteberg
2. Dunn
3. Encarnacion
4. Junior
5. Keppinger
6. Phillips
7. Patterson
8. Valentin
9. Harang
Rick's Guys vR:
1. Votto
2. Dunn
3. Encarnacion
4. Griffey
5. Keppinger
6. Bruce
7. Phillips
8. Ross
9. Harang
Rick's Guys vL:
1. Keppinger
2. Phillips
3. Dunn
4. Encarnacion
5. Griffey
6. Ross
7. Votto
8. Harang
9. Hopper
Wow, did I start this with my Dusty rant? I guess I better not screw this up then.
ReplyDeleteDusty's guys:
vs RHP
Kepp
Hatte
Griff
Dunn
EE
BP
Patterson
Javi
P
vs LHP
Hatte
Dunn
EE
Griff
BP
Kepp
Patterson
Javi
P
My guys:
vs RHP
Kepp
Votto
Bruce
Dunn
Griff
EE
BP
Javi
P
vs LHP
Votto
Dunn
EE
Griff
Bruce
BP
Kepp
Javi
P
Justin, does this spreadsheet come with the THT annual, or did you have access to it through other means? I'd like to look at it, and if it's not too much work code it up.
Continued thanks for all the lineups!
ReplyDelete@Brad,
Heh, you didn't really start it, as I've been intermittantly working up a lineup post using this Markov tool for at least a month now. But I think your rant plus others gave me the idea of having a "think you can beat Dusty" showdown. :)
As for the Markov spreadsheet, its download came as part of the purchase for the THT 08 Annual. So I don't feel as though it would be appropriate for me to send over the spreadsheet itself--though if you buy the annual, you can, of course, download the spreadsheet from THT.
However, once you get it, if you want to replicate my results, I made a few small changes (with John Beamer's help) to make the lineup tool work a bit better (particularly in terms of correctly inputting the % times leading off an inning into the model for any given set of players). I'd be happy to send those modifications along, as well as my input data.
-j
@Chris: I'm interested in why you have BP batting 7th vs. lefties. I think you and I share a similar opinion about BP, but I also think that he's hit lefties fairly well over the last couple of years. Just wondering what your thinking is there.
ReplyDeleteMy lineups:
Dusty's guys:
vs. RHP
1. Scott Hatteberg
2. Adam Dunn
3. Edwin Encarnacion
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Corey Patterson
7. Javier Valentin
8. Pitcher
9. Jeff Keppinger
vs. LHP
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Adam Dunn
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Ken Griffey Jr.
6. Corey Patterson
7. David Ross
8. Pitcher
9. Scott Hatteberg
Organization
vs. RHP
1. Joey Votto
2. Adam Dunn
3. Edwin Encarnacion
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Jay Bruce
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Javier Valentin
8. Pitcher
9. Jeff Keppinger
vs. LHP
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Adam Dunn
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce
5. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Ken Griffey
7. David Ross
8. Pitcher
9. Alex Gonzalez
Thanks Justin. I'm not looking for handouts, I was just wondering where you obtained it. Looks like I'm probably buy the THT annual now.
ReplyDeleteDusty's:
ReplyDelete1. Scott Hatteberg
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Javier Valentin
8. Corey Patterson
9. Pitcher
Organization:
1. Joey Votto
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Ken Griffey Jr.
4. Adam Dunn
5. Jay Bruce
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Alex Gonzalez
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher
Joel,
ReplyDeleteI just think BP's SLG-heavy/OBP-lite contributions fit best in the 7 hole. I may have made a mistake in putting him behind Jr vs. LHP - I can't recall what I was thinking, honestly. Maybe that Votto and Jr, behind relatively high OBPs, would put runners on base for BP.