Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 20 April

This is my weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in the player value series. But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	12	6	0.667	0.0	109	6.04	83	4.64	11	0.542	108
STL	12	7	0.632	0.5	89	4.67	69	3.65	12	0.545	102
MIL	11	7	0.611	1.0	86	4.79	73	4.07	10	0.549	99
CIN	8	11	0.421	4.5	77	4.06	86	4.53	9	0.573	68
PIT	7	11	0.389	5.0	82	4.55	119	6.62	6	0.576	63
HOU	7	12	0.368	5.5	73	3.84	88	4.63	8	0.580	60

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Tough week for the Reds, who went 2-4.....their extrapolated win total is currently 68--not good, especially with three teams on pace for 99+ wins...plenty of time to turn it around, of course.....The Reds' offense clawed its way out of the bottom of the division (they're now fifth), but the defense dropped to third place--at least they're not the Pirates (6.6 runs allowed/game)!.....The Cubs surged to the top of the division, and Pittsburgh fell a notch....

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Keppinger	Jeff S	84	7%	5%	19%	0.324	0.329	0.373	0.500	0.171	0.873	0.819	12.7	6.31	5.8
Encarnacion	Edwin	74	16%	14%	8%	0.250	0.258	0.378	0.484	0.226	0.862	0.891	11.0	6.28	5.0
Bako	Paul	54	11%	19%	26%	0.378	0.313	0.389	0.479	0.166	0.868	0.804	8.7	6.88	4.3
Dunn	Adam	75	28%	20%	15%	0.216	0.189	0.413	0.340	0.151	0.753	0.977	9.7	5.80	3.9
Votto	Joey D	47	0%	19%	29%	0.314	0.298	0.298	0.553	0.255	0.851	0.888	6.8	5.40	2.5
Griffey Jr.	Ken	79	10%	11%	14%	0.259	0.261	0.342	0.435	0.174	0.777	0.822	9.0	4.55	2.2
Phillips	Brandon	78	8%	22%	27%	0.333	0.264	0.321	0.389	0.125	0.710	0.731	8.6	4.27	1.7
Patterson	Corey	67	9%	6%	15%	0.135	0.186	0.258	0.475	0.289	0.733	0.938	8.2	4.29	1.6
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.1
Valentin	Javier	25	8%	20%	11%	0.278	0.217	0.280	0.261	0.044	0.541	0.559	1.7	2.41	-0.7
Hatteberg	Scott	33	21%	9%	22%	0.174	0.160	0.333	0.200	0.040	0.533	0.833	2.1	2.50	-0.8
Freel	Ryan	32	3%	13%	25%	0.296	0.267	0.281	0.300	0.033	0.581	0.659	1.9	2.22	-1.1
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' linear weights total is now 82 runs, which tops the actual runs scored (77) by five runs.....Keppinger takes the lead with continued fine hitting.....Patterson's extreme slump this past week took him from 4.5 RAR to just 1.6 RAR...PrOPS still thinks Patterson has been hitting well, fwiw.....Encarnacion's surge this week pulled him all the way to second place on the team in offensive value.....Votto showed similar improvement, but has he really still not walked yet this year? (edit: I see that he finally drew a walk tonight!).....Phillips had a rough week at the plate.....Dunn might be starting to show signs of life, with a nice uptick in his LD% and the highest PrOPS on the team...


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Bako	Paul	C	4.3	2.3	0.9	7.5
Votto	Joey D	1B	2.5	5.3	-0.6	7.2
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	5.8	0.1	0.5	6.4
Dunn	Adam	LF	3.9	0.5	-0.6	3.8
Patterson	Corey	CF	1.6	1.1	0.3	3.1
Phillips	Brandon	2B	1.7	0.1	0.1	1.9
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	5.0	-3.5	0.1	1.6
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	3.1	0.1	1.2
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	2.2	-0.6	-0.6	1.0
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-0.8	1.0	-0.3	-0.1
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Freel	Ryan	LF	-1.1	0.5	0.0	-0.6
Valentin	Javier	C	-0.7	-1.1	0.3	-1.5

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Fielding totals have the Reds as a team ~9 runs above average, which corroborates with a few other metrics I've seen--surprising.....Paul Bako continues to lead a charmed life, with great performances behind the plate and in the field...and to think that I've not yet given him a proper profile.....I still think Votto's fielding rating has to be a bit high, but RZR is loving him so far thanks to his 8 OOZ plays.....Encarnacion's value continues to be badly hindered by his fielding, as it always is.....Valentin has been brutal thus far.....Griffey has to hit to have any value, and thus far he really hasn't.....Believe it or not, the fielding metrics indicate that Castro did enough good in his short amount of playing time to provide value above replacement player, despite going 0/10 prior to being DFA'd today....


Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Harang	Aaron	35.0	7.5	1.8	1.3	13%	37%	0.216	2.83	3.69	0.637	12.7	3.27	10.3	6.6
Cueto	Johnny	26.3	9.9	1.0	1.7	17%	39%	0.180	3.42	3.44	0.587	8.5	2.90	8.8	5.7
Volquez	Edinson	15.3	9.4	5.3	0.0	0%	51%	0.308	1.17	2.71	0.573	4.2	2.49	5.8	4.5
Cordero	Francisco	8.0	10.1	6.8	0.0	0%	29%	0.176	1.13	3.04	0.418	1.1	1.26	4.8	1.7
Lincoln	Mike	8.7	7.2	1.0	0.0	0%	54%	0.259	3.12	1.78	0.487	1.7	1.73	3.1	2.6
Mercker	Kent	5.7	4.7	3.2	1.6	19%	38%	0.133	3.18	5.13	0.606	1.9	3.00	1.2	-0.4
Affeldt	Jeremy	6.7	13.4	4.0	1.3	32%	71%	0.286	2.70	3.18	0.661	2.7	3.68	0.9	0.9
Burton	Jared	10.7	15.1	2.5	1.7	19%	56%	0.348	4.22	2.75	0.702	5.2	4.35	0.7	2.0
Coffey	Todd	12.3	3.7	2.2	2.2	28%	55%	0.279	5.84	5.87	0.864	7.9	5.79	-1.2	-2.0
Weathers	David	7.3	1.2	9.9	0.0	0%	29%	0.300	4.91	6.05	0.817	5.9	7.23	-1.9	-1.3
Arroyo	Bronson	21.3	7.6	3.4	2.5	25%	39%	0.313	5.48	5.84	0.954	17.1	7.20	-3.0	-1.1
Fogg	Josh	11.0	7.4	4.1	3.3	25%	39%	0.324	13.09	7.10	1.116	11.8	9.69	-4.6	-2.1

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Overall, the Reds pitchers' base runs total is 81, five shy of their actual total--so by linear weights (82 runs scored) and base runs (81 runs allowed), they're a 0.500 team.....Not much change at the top--Harang, Cueto, Volquez, and Cordero continue to be the standouts.....Jared Burton's FIP is light years better than his ERA--check out the strikeout rate & GB%.....One has to think that the absurdly-high home run rates of Affeldt, Coffey, and especially Arroyo will stabilize at some point...but then again, Coffey did that all last year.....Weathers finally got himself a strikeout, but one has to wonder how he'll be when he returns from the DL.....Fogg justifiably pitched his way out of the rotation, but he might be adequate as a long man...

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.