Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 15 June

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	45	25	0.643	0.0	376	5.37	271	3.87	46	0.489	104
STL	42	29	0.592	3.5	341	4.80	316	4.46	38	0.527	96
MIL	36	33	0.522	8.5	305	4.42	318	4.61	33	0.581	85
PIT	34	36	0.486	11.0	346	4.95	370	5.28	33	0.609	79
HOU	33	37	0.471	12.0	311	4.44	345	4.93	32	0.620	76
CIN	33	38	0.465	12.5	311	4.38	349	4.91	32	0.626	75

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since I last checked in, the Reds went 5-7 (0.417), but it feels like things went even worse...they have regained the title of worst offense in the division, though thanks to slippage by Houston's pitching staff, their defense now ranks (a distant) 4th.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have the best record in baseball, top the division in both offense and defense, and remain on pace to break the 100-win plateau...the Cardinals continue to surprise, though Pythagoras thinks they have four wins more than they should.....Milwaukee's resurgence seems to have stalled.....Houston had a very bad week and a half, going 2-9 to drop from 3rd to 5th place.....

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Dunn	Adam	273	21%	25%	16%	0.238	0.229	0.396	0.524	0.295	0.920	1.059	44.6	7.09	22.6
Votto	Joey D	248	10%	18%	24%	0.299	0.275	0.347	0.486	0.211	0.833	0.894	35.5	5.75	13.9
Phillips	Brandon	296	7%	16%	17%	0.274	0.265	0.314	0.493	0.228	0.807	0.816	40.1	5.18	13.0
Hairston	Jerry	142	6%	14%	31%	0.390	0.336	0.382	0.480	0.144	0.862	0.751	24.4	7.11	12.4
Encarnacion	Edwin	269	10%	17%	13%	0.260	0.244	0.327	0.450	0.206	0.777	0.798	34.4	4.99	10.3
Bruce	Jay A	88	13%	16%	27%	0.379	0.342	0.432	0.566	0.224	0.998	0.997	16.4	8.60	9.7
Keppinger	Jeff S	163	7%	5%	19%	0.326	0.324	0.373	0.446	0.122	0.819	0.789	22.0	5.62	8.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	283	15%	14%	17%	0.266	0.245	0.357	0.392	0.147	0.749	0.813	31.8	4.59	7.6
Bako	Paul	180	10%	26%	21%	0.299	0.238	0.315	0.406	0.168	0.721	0.782	19.6	4.16	3.1
Freel	Ryan	143	6%	13%	20%	0.342	0.298	0.340	0.359	0.061	0.699	0.666	15.1	4.18	2.5
Cabrera	Jolbert	7	14%	14%	40%	0.600	0.500	0.571	0.500	0.000	1.071	N/A	1.5	13.35	1.1
Ross	Dave	81	16%	20%	20%	0.286	0.227	0.354	0.318	0.091	0.672	0.757	8.1	4.03	1.1
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.2
Phillips	Andy A	21	10%	14%	19%	0.188	0.158	0.238	0.211	0.053	0.449	0.660	0.9	1.43	-1.3
Valentin	Javier	55	5%	16%	9%	0.279	0.235	0.273	0.294	0.059	0.567	0.546	3.9	2.58	-1.4
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0
Hatteberg	Scott	61	11%	11%	19%	0.191	0.173	0.262	0.231	0.058	0.493	0.701	2.9	1.72	-3.1
Janish	Paul	57	7%	25%	24%	0.263	0.192	0.263	0.212	0.020	0.475	0.643	2.4	1.49	-3.2
Patterson	Corey	172	5%	11%	13%	0.188	0.193	0.229	0.348	0.155	0.577	0.712	13.9	2.73	-3.9

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' team linear weights total 320 runs, which is 9 more than they've actually scored (both numbers park adjusted).....Dunn continues to be the Reds' most valuable hitter by a considerable margin.....Votto overtook a slumping Phillips for the second spot....Jerry Hairston's rate of production has actually been equal to Dunn's this season, based on linear weights...Dunn does it with walks and homers, while Hairston does it with singles and doubles...when the latter equal the former in total number of bases, they're more valuable...PrOPS thinks he's overachieved though, so look for Hairston to return to earth when he returns.....It apparently is possible to get Jay Bruce out now and then, but he's still having a heck of a first month in the big leagues.....Encarnacion has been hot these last two weeks, but unless he goes on an extended tear, his first half is going to be very disappointing.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Phillips	Brandon	2B	13.0	5.3	0.4	18.8
Dunn	Adam	LF	22.6	-2.5	-2.3	17.8
Votto	Joey D	1B	13.9	6.7	-3.2	17.4
Bruce	Jay A	CF	9.7	1.1	0.0	10.9
Hairston	Jerry	SS	12.4	-2.4	0.7	10.6
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	10.3	-3.8	0.4	6.9
Bako	Paul	C	3.1	0.9	2.8	6.9
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	8.3	-3.2	1.2	6.3
Cabrera	Jolbert	SS	1.1	0.5	0.0	1.7
Freel	Ryan	CF	2.5	-1.4	0.2	1.2
Patterson	Corey	CF	-3.9	3.5	0.9	0.5
Ross	Dave	C	1.1	-2.3	1.2	-0.1
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.1
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	7.6	-5.6	-2.2	-0.3
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	1.5	0.1	-0.4
Phillips	Andy A	3B	-1.3	0.4	0.0	-0.8
Valentin	Javier	C	-1.4	-1.2	0.3	-2.3
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-3.1	0.4	-0.5	-3.2
Janish	Paul	SS	-3.2	-0.7	0.5	-3.4

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Overall, the Reds' fielding sums to -3 runs vs. average, which is an uptick of 4 runs in the past week and a half...THT's team plus/minus fielding stat agrees, which might make one think that this might be real...most of it comes from a bump to Phillips's numbers, and a huge swing in Patterson's numbers in CF...The former I"ll believe, but the latter is probably more of an indication how shaky these fielding numbers can be, especially in the outfield.....Anyway, thanks to a nice bump in his fielding numbers, Phillips overtook Dunn as the Reds most valuable position player.....a league average starter should have 8.8 RAR by now, so the Reds can only boast 5 guys who have clearly been above average players.....Hey, it's mid-June, and Griffey is still rated as a replacement player.

Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	88.0	10.7	4.5	0.3	5%	52%	0.268	1.64	2.71	0.557	25.7	2.63	31.4	26.9
Harang	Aaron	101.0	7.9	1.8	1.2	11%	33%	0.315	4.10	3.47	0.772	51.8	4.61	13.7	22.3
Cordero	Francisco	30.7	10.0	5.3	0.9	11%	40%	0.208	2.64	3.89	0.582	10.4	3.06	10.4	2.9
Burton	Jared	36.3	9.9	2.7	0.7	9%	52%	0.307	2.48	2.76	0.647	14.7	3.63	5.0	7.0
Bray	Bill P	21.3	8.9	4.6	0.4	5%	37%	0.300	2.53	3.13	0.669	9.2	3.88	2.4	3.3
Cueto	Johnny	79.7	8.1	3.5	2.0	19%	37%	0.281	5.42	5.12	0.833	49.3	5.57	2.3	3.1
Lincoln	Mike	32.0	7.6	2.3	2.0	30%	60%	0.244	5.06	4.75	0.753	16.0	4.50	1.3	-0.9
Mercker	Kent	13.7	3.9	5.3	0.7	7%	40%	0.279	3.29	4.73	0.750	6.6	4.35	0.8	-0.4
Affeldt	Jeremy	32.7	9.9	3.6	1.7	26%	56%	0.311	4.68	4.17	0.765	17.8	4.91	-0.1	1.2
Herrera	Daniel R.	3.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	94%	56%	0.375	9.00	5.30	0.972	2.5	7.63	-0.9	-0.3
Majewski	Gary W	5.0	5.4	3.6	1.8	16%	47%	0.312	3.60	5.97	0.917	3.7	6.57	-0.9	-0.8
Arroyo	Bronson	79.7	8.5	3.5	1.5	16%	37%	0.343	5.31	4.29	0.853	53.3	6.02	-1.6	10.3
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	6.05	0.879	10.4	6.14	-2.1	-2.6
Belisle	Matt	29.7	4.2	1.8	1.2	14%	51%	0.364	7.28	4.26	0.914	23.5	7.13	-4.3	4.0
Weathers	David	25.3	6.0	5.0	1.8	20%	41%	0.296	4.26	5.78	0.883	18.6	6.60	-4.8	-3.6
Bailey	Homer	12.3	2.2	7.3	4.4	30%	37%	0.227	8.76	10.76	1.138	13.9	10.17	-5.9	-7.2
Fogg	Josh	28.3	5.4	3.2	2.2	17%	38%	0.317	9.85	6.01	0.964	24.1	7.67	-8.8	-4.7

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Let's see, good 2008 Reds pitching performances: Volquez, Harang, Cordero, Burton... and umm... Bray? If you believe his peripherals (and I do), Arroyo has been ok.....Cueto's K/BB rates continue to be pretty good, but his Milton-esque proclivity for long flies is killing him.....There's recently been calls for his dismissal, but I have to say that Lincoln's GB% and other peripherals are encouraging, despite that scary HR/F%.....Finally, it's hard to imagine a worse return than Homer Bailey's...his velocity is down, he hasn't been striking people out, and he's still walking a ton...I know they say he's not injured, but he hid an injury last year...I just can't get over the feeling that there must be something wrong with him...how many 22-year olds lose 2-3 mph of velocity for no apparent reason? ... I would not think many, though apparently something similar is happening with both Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, so maybe I'm wrong.

Overall, the Reds' base runs total 352 runs, which is 3 more than they've actually allowed. Combining this number with the lwts-estimated 320 runs scored and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.453 (32-39), which means the Reds are unfortunately about a win better than expected. Getting trounced 9-0 will do that to your run differential, though. Figures that the one game I get a chance to see since April turns out to be such a stinker....

I have to admit, unless the Reds score some nice returns from the guys on the trading block, it's not shaping up to be a very interesting rest of the season.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.