So, today Adam Dunn was traded for three players. I'm a bit under the weather tonight, so I'll be brief.
We only know the identities of one of them, RHP Dallas Buck. He apparently was a decent prospect some time ago, but had Tommy John surgery in 2006 and thus is behind a bit. He'll be 24 next year, and hopefully in AA.
The other players are unknowns, and will make this either a good or bad deal. I've supported the idea of not signing Dunn to an extension in the past. Given that, the decision about whether or not to trade him comes down to whether the haul in the trade is more valuable than the expected value of the compensation picks. The Reds obviously believe that they're coming out ahead here, but I'll have to see who they get to feel comfortable with this deal.
Morale-wise, it's hard to feel very happy about this. The already-weak offense is going to be a disaster for the rest of the season, and this team clearly isn't going to be much fun to watch. And Adam Dunn was always such a fun, charismatic guy--I'm going to miss him a lot. Add all of this to my already-frustrated state, and you don't have a recipe for a lot of interest on my part through the rest of the season.
Justin,
ReplyDeleteI share your frustration with the Reds. However, I can't quit them. I was 15 when the '75 Reds won it all, and I am hooked for life. They have given me three World Championships in my lifetime, and I hope to see a couple more.
Let's wait to see what else happens. Who will be the other players we get for Dunn?
As to Ross, I think that there may be a trade in the offing. I think he got picked to be 'released' because there is interest, and he and what is left of his $2.5 million salary clered waivers. The Reds have ten days from yesterday to complete the trade. We shall see.
I am willing to give Walt J. some time. For me, the true test will be what the team looks like next spring. Can he rebuild them? I hope so.
To me, the real question is do they have the guts to let Dusty Baker go? He has made many bad decisions, and he is not a good 'rebuilding' manager.
Hang in there Justin! I love your web site....we Reds fans need more intelligence in our fan base, not less. We can't afford to lose you to the Pirates....
As a die-hard Reds fan I have to agree with some of your points and disagree with some of them as well. I will agree that they are frustrating. They always have more talent than they so but can never get over .500. In my eyes that is a problem with the attitude. Jockety is moving the team in the right direction. Look at the Cards before he became the GM. They stunk. Griffey needed to go, he did nothing in Cincy. Ross needed to go...however he is the best catcher we have right now. Dunn needed to be out three years ago. He is horrible. Can't hit, except 40 home runs a year, other than that...strike out. One move for Jockety left to do to rebuild the Reds. Show Baker the door. That man may be the worst manager in baseball. You could give me a three year old and he would hit better than Patterson. Bako behind the plate is a joke but not as big of a joke as Dusty. Get him out of here and see were the Reds go from there.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about the picks gained if Dunn walks is they cost money. If Buck + PTBNLs are equivalent in talent to the lost picks, then at least we can say that we saved whatever the signing bonuses ($1m+?) would be.
ReplyDeleteIf the rumors are true and we get Owings, then Walt did a freaking awesome job.
ReplyDeleteThis gives Walt the ability to captilize on the current market that over values prospects, and trade one or two of Bailey/Maloney/Thompson. Matt Holiday anyone???????
By the way I am a HUGE fan of pitchers that can hit. If he can pitch well enough to be a functional 5th starter, then this will be huge for next year's roster.
Justin- Just when you thought the Reds were boring, they go and aquire a player that will likely be the most difficult player in baseball to quantify objectively. How do you calculate the RAR offensively for a pitcher??????????????? Especially if he is good enough to PH.
Well, until we see that Micah Owings is, in fact, coming to the Reds, I'm not going to get too excited. There were several other options who aren't as exciting. I also don't think he's necessarily worth rejoicing over if we do get him. His FIP and xFIP are pretty much dead-on where they were last year, so while he hasn't improved, he isn't any worse either. He'll be 26 in a month, so he's not going to get a lot better either... Throws right at 90 mph... My guess is that he maxes out as a mid-4's ERA pitcher, with upper-4's being more likely. Granted, that plus the Buck wild card is starting to sound like a good return for a 2-month rental of Dunn. But it won't make me thrilled about the Reds' prospects for 2008 either.
ReplyDeleteRe: pitcher hitting - we were just talking about that in another thread. I think it's pretty simple. Assuming pitchers are promoted without respect to their hitting ability -- and that seems close to a certainty, right? -- then a replacement-level pitcher is probably about an average hitting pitcher. Therefore, you'd put the baseline as whatever the average hitting pitcher will tend to hit (in 2008 it's 0.139/0.177/0.177). So, figure his hitting RAR based on that, and add it to (or, as the case may be, subtract it from) the pitcher's RAR, and you've got a total value measure.
I'm skeptical that pitchers get enough PA's for it to make a huge difference in their value, but Micah might be extreme enough for it to matter--especially last year when he was flashing his power.
As far as pinch hitting...Dusty tends to stick to archetypes (e.g. fast centerfielder = leadoff, strikeouts + power = 5th hole, etc), so I'm not sure if he'd think outside the box enough to use him in anything but extra innings games when he's out of pinch hitters. I think Dusty's a pretty conservative guy when it comes to managing--do what you were taught to do by your mentors, and you won't get in trouble.
-j