A look at Griffey's career

Griffey's era with the Reds came to an anticlimactic end last week in a trade to the White Sox for a couple of scrubs. And while his career can't be said to be over yet--he's given no indications that he's retiring thus far--I wanted to take a quick look back at his impressive career.

George Kenneth Griffey, Jr., was the first overall selection in the 1987 amateur draft out of Moeller High School in Cincinnati. Other notables taken in the first round include Jack McDowell (5th), Kevin Appier (9th), Delino DeShields (11th), Mike Remlinger (16th), Jack Armstrong (18th), Craig Biggio (22nd), Pete Harnisch (27th), and Travis Fryman (30th). Pretty impressive class...but Griffey was clearly the best of the bunch.

Griffey skyrocketed through the minors, beating the tarnation out of A-ball teams before a short stint at AA to end his year-18 season. He skipped AAA altogether, starting instead in center field for Seattle in the 1989 season as a 19-year old. Thus began what has to be considered among the most dominant first 12 years in baseball history, and, of course, a shoe-in Hall of Fame career. He was a 13-time all-star, 10-time gold glover, 7-time silver slugger, and the 1997 MVP (five times in the top-5).

Hitting

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	R/G	RAA	RAA/PA	RAR
1989	19	SEA	506	16%	9%	0.288	0.264	0.329	0.420	0.156	0.749	4.7	7.3	0.015	21.8
1990	20	SEA	666	12%	9%	0.315	0.300	0.366	0.481	0.181	0.847	6.0	27.6	0.042	46.1
1991	21	SEA	633	13%	11%	0.344	0.327	0.399	0.527	0.200	0.926	7.3	43.5	0.069	60.4
1992	22	SEA	617	11%	7%	0.310	0.308	0.361	0.535	0.227	0.896	6.6	37.0	0.060	53.7
1993	23	SEA	691	13%	14%	0.298	0.309	0.408	0.617	0.308	1.025	8.5	60.7	0.088	80.0
1994	24	SEA	493	15%	11%	0.311	0.323	0.402	0.674	0.351	1.076	9.2	48.1	0.098	63.1
1995	25	SEA	314	17%	17%	0.260	0.258	0.379	0.481	0.223	0.860	6.4	11.2	0.036	21.0
1996	26	SEA	638	16%	12%	0.290	0.303	0.392	0.628	0.325	1.020	8.6	52.3	0.082	72.4
1997	27	SEA	704	17%	11%	0.291	0.304	0.382	0.646	0.342	1.028	8.3	58.1	0.082	79.4
1998	28	SEA	720	17%	11%	0.270	0.284	0.365	0.611	0.327	0.976	7.7	50.1	0.070	72.6
1999	29	SEA	706	15%	13%	0.277	0.285	0.384	0.576	0.291	0.960	7.6	42.0	0.059	64.7
2000	30	CIN	631	19%	15%	0.272	0.271	0.387	0.556	0.285	0.943	7.3	31.6	0.050	52.1
2001	31	CIN	417	17%	11%	0.298	0.286	0.365	0.533	0.247	0.898	6.6	18.8	0.045	31.8
2002	32	CIN	232	17%	12%	0.286	0.264	0.358	0.426	0.162	0.784	5.0	2.0	0.009	9.1
2003	33	CIN	201	22%	13%	0.252	0.247	0.370	0.566	0.319	0.936	7.0	11.2	0.056	17.4
2004	34	CIN	348	19%	13%	0.260	0.253	0.351	0.513	0.260	0.864	6.1	10.7	0.031	21.9
2005	35	CIN	555	17%	10%	0.305	0.301	0.369	0.576	0.275	0.945	7.3	36.2	0.065	52.7
2006	36	CIN	472	17%	8%	0.248	0.252	0.316	0.486	0.234	0.802	5.0	1.3	0.003	17.5
2007	37	CIN	623	16%	14%	0.284	0.277	0.372	0.496	0.219	0.868	6.2	20.9	0.034	40.2
2008	38	TOT	439	15%	14%	0.263	0.247	0.355	0.427	0.180	0.782	5.2	4.2	0.010	18.1
Career			10606	16%	12%	0.290	0.288	0.373	0.548	0.260	0.921	7.0	575.0	0.054	896

The Griffey that we'll remember was a guy who had decent strikeout rates, decent to good walk rates, and amazing power. He had five seasons with a 0.300+ isolated power. His best offensive season may well have been his MVP year, when he hit 0.304/56/147 (triple crown stats) and produced 79 runs above replacement to lead the AL West champion '97 Mariners to the postseason. At least as good, however, was his 1993 performance (80 RAR), and he was on pace for his greatest season ever in 1994 before it was cut short by the strike (9.2 R/G, 0.10 RAA/PA, 63 RAR & 40 HR in 111 games). His peak lasted roughly 7 seasons, though the strike and a wrist injury limited his playing time in '94 and '95.

During Griffey's career, the average MLB team has gone from scoring 4.14 runs per game in 1989 to 5.14 runs per game in 2000, and back down to the current level around 4.8 runs per game. He has always clocked in as an above-average hitter. He's played his entire career in hitters' parks (the Kingdome, Cinergy Field, and Great American Ballparks), but even after adjusting for his home parks his offense has accounted for 896 runs above replacement and counting.

Fielding & Total Value

Year	PA	RAA	RAR	ZR-Runs	PosAdj	TtlVal-RAA	TtlVal-RAR
1989	506	9	24	-3	3	9	24
1990	666	30	48	3	4	36	55
1991	633	45	61	-5	4	43	60
1992	617	37	54	-6	3	34	51
1993	691	61	80	-2	3	62	81
1994	493	48	63	-5	2	46	60
1995	314	11	21	-9	2	4	14
1996	638	52	72	-5	3	51	71
1997	704	58	79	-6	4	56	77
1998	720	50	73	-3	4	51	73
1999	706	44	67	-8	4	40	63
2000	631	32	52	14	3	49	70
2001	417	19	32	0	2	21	34
2002	232	2	9	-1	1	2	9
2003	201	11	17	-1	1	11	17
2004	348	11	22	-13	2	0	11
2005	555	36	52	-21	3	18	34
2006	472	2	18	-11	2	-7	9
2007	623	22	41	-3	-5	14	33
2008	433	5	19	2	-3	4	17
Career	10600	584	905	-83	42	543	864

I'm a little hamstrung here, because for this table I'm only using zone rating from ESPN. I strongly prefer to use at least two fielding metrics whenever possible, but prior to 2003 or thereabouts I just don't have the data to do this. In recent years, ZR has been much more favorable toward Griffey's performances in the field than other metrics (e.g. RZR, UZR, PMR).

But surprisingly, even given that, Griffey doesn't come off as an overwhelmingly good fielder. In fact, compared to other center fielders, Griffey typically came out a tad below average over most of his career. The one real exception was in his first year with the Reds, 2000, when he was rated 14 runs above average. I have to wonder if there are some park effects that aren't accounted for at the Kingdome. As bad as the gold glove voters can be, I have a hard time believing that Griffey would win 10 straight gold gloves at a premier defensive position if he was a below-average fielder. While the only other fielding resource I have on hand from that era, Clay Davenport's fielding translations, show Griffey in a somewhat more positive light, he still does not come across as an exceptional defender by the numbers.

Even if we accept these data, though, it wasn't until the 2004 season--following three seasons shortened by leg injuries--that he became a genuine liability in the field. In 2005, his first year back from an experimental hamstring surgery, his defense cut his value by 35%--and those are some of the more generous numbers you'll find. The move to right field in 2007 certainly helped, but other metrics indicate that he's still a dreadful fielder in right.

Even though the fielding numbers don't help his cause, Griffey's overall numbers are still hard to match: 846 runs above replacement on his career (~85 wins), and counting. It's been a very impressive career. And the best part is, even though he's fading, he's not done yet. Add my voice to the chorus of Reds fans who hope that he not only makes it to the post-season, but gets the chance to play for his first ring.

Update: At Sky's suggestion, I checked out Sean Smith's TotalZone ratings for Griffey. Here they are (runs vs. average; year).

-12	1989
-4	1990
-2	1991
-7	1992
-12	1993
-9	1994
2	1995
5	1996
6	1997
6	1998
8	2000
-10	2001
-11	2002
-5	2003
-9	2004
-23	2005
-17	2006
0	2007

Again, the data don't support the idea that Griffey was a spectacular outfielder at any point in his career. Nevertheless, especially when you keep in mind that he was playing center field during this time, Griffey was clearly a defensive asset throughout most of his offensive peak (~'93-'99). It wasn't until 2004 or 2005 that he became a real liability out there. Again, 2005 was the season following his experimental hamstring surgery, which is when I think most of us noticed his drastically reduced speed.

These ratings would also indicate that his best season was clearly his MVP year, when he was 79 runs above replacement via offense, 6 runs above average as a center fielder, and receives a +4 run bonus for playing a premium position. That's 89 runs above a replacement player, which is a spectacular season.