I've had an interest over the past few years in what MLB is doing in the Dominican Republic, good and bad. This article seems to highlight a bit of both, and tells the story of how a kid named Sadid Frias was recently signed by the Pirates. Here's one passage:The initial sign of change came in May 2007, when owner Bob Nutting reacted to learning about the state of the program with a visit to the Dominican and, ultimately, ordered the building of a new $5 million academy that should open in May of next year. Four months after the trip, Nutting fired Littlefield -- partly because of the Latin American failures -- and replaced him with a new team president, Frank Coonelly, and general manager, Neal Huntington, who have nearly tripled Gayo's signing budget, from $700,000 to $2 million.One of the most striking changes to the Reds' recent efforts to get better, which seems to mirror the Pirates', is the massive increase in the money they are spending in the Dominican. It sounds like a lot of money, but if even one of those guys pans out as just an average major league player, the initial investment shelled out this year will bring a net return.
This offseason, the going rate for wins above replacement on the free agent market should be close to $5 million. The average big leaguer is worth 2 wins above replacement, or $10 million. The first three years a team controls a player in the big leagues, they pay him close to minimum salary. So, that's roughly $30 million in production that a team does not have to pay for on the free agent market, from one average player, in just the first three years they are under team control.
It seems like alot of teams are figuring this out. International free agents are the next "market inefficiency" described in Moneyball. I think, for the most part, most teams appear to have a similiar approach to the draft since the Moneyball revolution. Evidence of this being, that drafts are not ridiculously unpredictable in the first several rounds.....where the big market teams kill you is getting the "unsignable" players in later rounds with $$$$.
ReplyDeleteAnyways I see the next generation of scouting as not statistics, but as reach into the international talent pool, and technological evaluations such as pitch f/x. The next technological thing maybe a computer model that evaluates a players swing in order to find potential breakout guys like Ryan Ludwick, a camera sharp enough to measure rotations/ft on a curveball , or a metric that determines the difference between speed and reflexes. I believe speed is lost in during a ballplayers career, but reflexes stay but much longer.
Maybe I just like getting on a soapbox and thinking aloud about this crap because I'm an R&D guy.
Justin - Love the blog, the Redsblogosphere hopes you come out of hibernation for the Rule V and Winter Meetings.
Yeah, I recently saw a Manny Acta interview where he talked about pitchf/x as a big part of the next frontier. The smart big league clubs know this. Not sure if the Reds are among those, however. I'd like to think so, but I'm doubtful.
ReplyDeleteAs for my activity, we'll see. I think I'll always be around on some level, but I never expected to drop out as dramatically as I have this season. Having too much fun at work, I guess.
-j
Well I remember the Reds had a job posting for a Pitch F/X technician/producer or something. I sent the link to Doug but am not sure if he applied or not.
ReplyDeleteI remember the stringer job, but that was for MLBAM and not the Reds.
ReplyDeleteIf it really was a front office position, that's exciting. I hope to hear more about that stuff happening in the Reds' front office.
-Justin