5 Questions - Cincinnati Reds

As is appropriate for this time of year, I've posted my most optimistic take on the Reds yet over at the Hardball Times.

What I tried to do in this piece is to do a comprehensive projection of the Reds ballclub and use that as a basis of looking forward at this coming season. This is kind of an extension to my recent pieces on 2009 catchers and 2009 opening day outfielders, but extended to the entire team. It addresses many of the very reasonable and problematic concerns that folks had about the outfield study in a manner that I think is pretty reasonable.

The results were surprising, to say the least, especially on offense:

Overall, after working through the projections and forcing the plate appearances to match last years' Reds, my estimate for 2009 Reds offense was.... 25 runs above average. If the NL average is 734 runs scored per team, as it was last year, that would put the Reds at 759 runs scored. That would have ranked sixth in the league in 2008. And this is from a team that scored just 704 runs last year with a partial season of Adam Dunn. Granted, if you adjust for park effects, you should cull 15 or so runs off of this total. But even so, most of us think of the Reds as a below-average hitting team these days. These data indicate that this isn't the case.

All rate stats are built upon CHONE, but I assigned playing time via a process that is part objective and part intuition. The article has a description of these methods at its end. The total projected plate appearances are matched to last year's team PA's, while the innings pitched are matched to last year's IP.

In the interest of showing my work, here are projected statistics for all players on this imaginary Reds team of mine:

Hitters	PT-Coef	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	lwts	RAR	FLD	PosAdj	WAR
Brandon Phillips	100%	594	550	149	27	4	22	38	95	6	20	6	0.271	0.325	0.455	0.338	7.5	25.5	6.4	2.0	3.6
Joey Votto	100%	576	512	146	31	2	24	62	115	2	11	5	0.285	0.365	0.494	0.373	21.8	39.3	2.7	-9.7	3.4
Jay Bruce	100%	536	493	136	26	4	27	40	139	3	10	5	0.276	0.334	0.509	0.361	15.5	31.8	1.7	-5.4	3.0
Edwin Encarnacion	100%	561	499	140	31	1	23	54	94	8	5	1	0.281	0.360	0.485	0.368	19.6	36.7	-12.1	1.9	2.8
Ramon Hernandez	100%	467	425	113	22	1	16	37	63	5	1	0	0.266	0.332	0.435	0.336	4.1	18.3	-3.7	7.8	2.4
Alex Gonzalez	100%	432	400	103	23	1	12	28	74	4	2	1	0.258	0.313	0.410	0.317	-3.3	9.8	0.0	4.4	1.5
Willy Taveras	100%	543	502	137	22	3	2	35	82	6	39	9	0.273	0.328	0.341	0.303	-7.9	8.6	2.5	1.8	1.4
Jonny Gomes	74%	327	282	72	15	1	18	40	86	5	7	3	0.255	0.357	0.507	0.373	12.7	22.6	-7.1	-3.3	1.3
Chris Dickerson	75%	375	329	78	15	4	12	43	120	2	13	4	0.238	0.330	0.419	0.330	1.5	12.9	1.7	-3.8	1.2
Jeff Keppinger	57%	294	271	80	16	1	4	22	18	1	2	1	0.297	0.353	0.408	0.339	2.7	11.6	-2.3	1.0	1.1
Ryan Hanigan	43%	163	145	38	7	0	2	17	23	2	0	0	0.262	0.345	0.362	0.321	-1.0	4.0	0.0	2.7	0.7
Jerry Hairston Jr.	74%	248	226	60	13	1	4	19	34	3	7	2	0.265	0.328	0.395	0.321	-0.9	6.6	1.5	-2.5	0.6
Danny Richar	29%	153	140	37	8	1	4	12	26	1	3	1	0.261	0.321	0.418	0.324	-0.2	4.4	0.0	0.5	0.5
Norris Hopper	37%	140	130	38	6	1	1	9	14	1	4	1	0.290	0.339	0.364	0.316	-1.2	3.0	1.9	-1.4	0.4
Adam Rosales	29%	143	131	33	8	1	4	10	31	2	2	1	0.254	0.313	0.426	0.322	-0.3	4.0	-1.5	0.5	0.3
Paul Janish	29%	140	127	30	7	1	2	12	26	1	1	0	0.233	0.305	0.350	0.294	-3.7	0.5	0.2	1.4	0.2
Wilkin Castillo	21%	93	89	22	5	0	1	4	14	1	2	1	0.249	0.288	0.354	0.284	-3.3	-0.4	0.0	1.6	0.1
Pitchers	6%	326	313	39	7	0	1	12	108	0	1	1	0.124	0.159	0.157	0.146	-39.0	-29.1	0.0	0.0	-3.1
Totals		6110	5564	1450	288	30	179	493	1163	53	131	42	0.261	0.327	0.420	0.328	25	210	-8	0	21

PT-Coef is a playing time coefficient that I used to adjust time for each player. lwts is relative to average, and RAR is a conversion of that number to replacement level (using 2.0 wins/season as replacement in the NL). FLD is Rally's fielding projection, PosAdj are Tom Tango's position adjustment numbers based the designated CHONE position (I did change Hairston to an OF). WAR is the sum of RAR, FLD, and PosAdj.

None of the offensive numbers are park adjusted (i.e. they are given as expected to be seen playing half of one's games in GABP)--this is because I wanted to directly compare them to 2008 raw numbers. But that means that the WAR values, in particular, are overestimates of value if you wanted to take them and convert them to
You'll note that the smallest number of PA's went to Castillo with 93. Most "real" teams have a lot of players in the 10-30 range by the end of the season, and they don't tend to be good performances. I sort of think of Castillo's and maybe Janish's line as essentially taking all of those performances and lumping them together. So I don't think that's a huge problem here, though I could be wrong..

Now the pitchers:

Pitchers	G	GS	IP	ERA	ER	R	H	HR	BB	SO	HB	RAR
Edinson Volquez	30	30	166	3.58	66	71	138	16	78	170	9	34
Aaron Harang	29	29	193	4.01	86	93	192	26	50	162	5	31
Bronson Arroyo	30	30	188	4.40	92	99	196	24	62	143	7	21
Johnny Cueto	27	27	146	4.19	68	74	138	21	54	130	9	19
Micah Owings	20	20	111	4.29	53	57	109	14	39	86	10	13
Homer Bailey	20	20	103	4.61	53	57	104	13	48	77	3	9
Francisco Cordero	65	0	64	3.38	24	26	54	5	28	69	2	7
Bill Bray	62	0	62	3.48	24	26	54	6	25	65	2	5
Jared Burton	60	0	68	3.97	30	32	63	7	30	60	3	2
Mike Lincoln	42	0	45	4.00	20	22	44	5	16	36	2	2
Nick Masset	49	0	57	3.95	25	27	56	5	22	47	2	2
Matthew Maloney	2	2	12	4.34	6	6	11	2	4	10	1	2
Ramon A Ramirez	2	2	10	4.38	5	5	9	1	5	8	0	1
Arthur Rhodes	44	0	31	3.77	13	14	28	2	15	31	1	1
Daniel Herrera	42	0	49	4.41	24	26	50	7	17	37	2	1
Daryl Thompson	2	2	10	4.73	5	6	11	2	4	7	0	1
Pedro Viola	13	0	15	4.91	8	9	15	2	8	13	1	-1
Dave Weathers	60	0	62	4.35	30	32	63	6	26	40	3	-1
Josh Roenicke	51	0	50	4.50	25	27	49	7	24	47	2	-1

RAR in this case is straight from Rally's tables (prorated for innings), and so it should be park-neutral. He also (somehow) adjusts for fielding, and given how close the Reds' forecasted team is to average in the field (it should be just a bit below average), I see no real payoff to trying to do any further adjustments. This rotation, if it lives up to these numbers, would be freaking fantastic. Let's hope it at least comes close!

Anyway, that at least should help you see where these data are coming from.s.

You'll note that the smallest number of PA's went to Castillo with 93. Most "real" teams have a lot of players in the 10-30 range by the end of the season, and they don't tend to be good performances. I sort of think of Castillo's and maybe Janish's line as essentially taking all of those performances and lumping them together. So I don't think that's a huge problem here, though I could be wrong..

Now the pitchers:

Pitchers	G	GS	IP	ERA	ER	R	H	HR	BB	SO	HB	RAR
Edinson Volquez	30	30	166	3.58	66	71	138	16	78	170	9	34
Aaron Harang	29	29	193	4.01	86	93	192	26	50	162	5	31
Bronson Arroyo	30	30	188	4.40	92	99	196	24	62	143	7	21
Johnny Cueto	27	27	146	4.19	68	74	138	21	54	130	9	19
Micah Owings	20	20	111	4.29	53	57	109	14	39	86	10	13
Homer Bailey	20	20	103	4.61	53	57	104	13	48	77	3	9
Francisco Cordero	65	0	64	3.38	24	26	54	5	28	69	2	7
Bill Bray	62	0	62	3.48	24	26	54	6	25	65	2	5
Jared Burton	60	0	68	3.97	30	32	63	7	30	60	3	2
Mike Lincoln	42	0	45	4.00	20	22	44	5	16	36	2	2
Nick Masset	49	0	57	3.95	25	27	56	5	22	47	2	2
Matthew Maloney	2	2	12	4.34	6	6	11	2	4	10	1	2
Ramon A Ramirez	2	2	10	4.38	5	5	9	1	5	8	0	1
Arthur Rhodes	44	0	31	3.77	13	14	28	2	15	31	1	1
Daniel Herrera	42	0	49	4.41	24	26	50	7	17	37	2	1
Daryl Thompson	2	2	10	4.73	5	6	11	2	4	7	0	1
Pedro Viola	13	0	15	4.91	8	9	15	2	8	13	1	-1
Dave Weathers	60	0	62	4.35	30	32	63	6	26	40	3	-1
Josh Roenicke	51	0	50	4.50	25	27	49	7	24	47	2	-1

RAR in this case is straight from Rally's tables (prorated for innings), and so it should be park-neutral. He also (somehow) adjusts for fielding, and given how close the Reds' forecasted team is to average in the field (it should be just a bit below average), I see no real payoff to trying to do any further adjustments. This rotation, if it lives up to these numbers, would be freaking fantastic. Let's hope it at least comes close!

Anyway, that at least should help you see where these data are coming from.

Update: More discussion at RedsZone, RedReporter, and RedLegNation.