American League Update - Through 5/16/09

Tonight, I'm going to take a look at the junior circuit.

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TOR	25	14	0.641	0	219	5.6	167	4.3	24	104	87	0.528
BOS	22	15	0.595	2	198	5.4	180	4.9	20	96	85	0.544
NYA	19	17	0.528	4.5	195	5.4	210	5.8	17	86	82	0.563
TB	18	20	0.474	6.5	203	5.3	189	5.0	20	77	80	0.581
BAL	16	21	0.432	8	186	5.0	216	5.8	16	70	79	0.592

As much as hate to admit it, this is probably the most interesting division in baseball right now. The Red Sox and Yankees should have very good teams, and the Rays--despite their record--have played every bit as tough as the rich teams. But the Blue Jays have been the class of the division thus far, sporting both the best offensive and the best defensive (pitching + fielding) performances. You have to expect some of Toronto's hitter's to fall back to earth--none of Barajas (0.820), Hill (0.927), and Scutaro (0.869) have OPS'd over 0.800 before this season. And they've gotten unreal pitching performances from Romero and Cecil. It will be interesting to see how long they can hold off their division rivals.

Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
DET	19	16	0.543	0	190	5.4	163	4.7	20	88	83	0.559
KC	19	18	0.514	1	166	4.5	151	4.1	20	83	82	0.568
MIN	18	19	0.486	2	181	4.9	197	5.3	17	79	81	0.576
CHA	15	20	0.429	4	135	3.8	162	4.6	15	69	79	0.591
CLE	14	24	0.368	6.5	198	5.2	218	5.7	17	60	76	0.613

Another rather evenly matched division, though perhaps without the quality of the east. The Tigers have had the best offense, but the Royals have had the best defense--thanks in no small part to the spectacular first month and a half for Zach Greinke. Nice also to see Brian Bannister having a nice bit of success in the early goings. The Tigers have their own surprise--Brandon Inge is OPSing 0.954--but they have a lot of guys who aren't really hitting yet (Granderson, Guillen, Ordonez) and thus might actually improve even as Inge cools.

West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TEX	22	14	0.611	0	200	5.6	174	4.8	20	99	85	0.540
LAA	18	17	0.514	3.5	177	5.1	179	5.1	17	83	82	0.567
SEA	17	20	0.459	5.5	152	4.1	179	4.8	16	74	80	0.584
OAK	13	20	0.394	7.5	145	4.4	162	4.9	15	64	78	0.597

The Angels have had as much bad luck and tragedy as any team I can remember, but still are right at 0.500 thanks their great depth. The Rangers, though, have taken advantage of the weak division, riding hot starts by Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Kevin Millwood to a nice little division lead. Not as impressive is the offense of Ken Griffey Jr.'s Seattle Mariners. Thank goodness they at least have Russell Branyon.

Team performance breakdown

Below is a kind of power ranking of teams based on their component statistics. I estimate team runs scored using linear weights (actually, FanGraphs does, though I park-adjust it), pitching performance based on FIP (I do park-adjust the HR's), and fielding based on UZR. I use those numbers to estimate team runs scored and runs allowed, and then use PythagenPat to estimate expected winning percentage. It's not perfect, but this should give us another look at team performance that gets beyond actual wins, losses, and runs scored or allowed.

			Offense				Pitching						Fielding			Overall
Rank	Prev	Team	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	wRC*	ERA	FIP*	K/9	BB/9	HR*/9	FIPRuns*	bUZR	THT+/-	DER	ExptW%
1	-	Blue Jays	0.359	0.460	0.356	225	3.97	4.23	6.8	3.1	0.9	181	6.2	24.8	0.720	0.619
2	-	Rays	0.346	0.452	0.357	214	4.83	4.83	6.5	3.8	1.2	191	16.3	0	0.689	0.595
3	-	Royals	0.335	0.421	0.334	174	3.63	3.76	7.5	3.4	0.7	149	-3.8	-4.8	0.685	0.560
4	-	Rangers	0.335	0.496	0.357	201	4.66	5.02	5.3	3.4	1.2	192	15.2	19.2	0.712	0.560
5	-	Tigers	0.340	0.426	0.337	170	4.31	4.29	7.3	3.6	1.0	160	4.7	8.8	0.704	0.544
6	-	Red Sox	0.364	0.451	0.351	204	4.82	4.67	7.4	4.0	1.1	185	-12	-7.2	0.677	0.517
7	-	Yankees	0.350	0.467	0.358	211	5.41	5.28	7.2	4.2	1.4	203	-4.1	4	0.691	0.509
8	-	Indians	0.355	0.420	0.345	204	5.62	5.03	6.6	4.0	1.3	199	-2.8	-12.8	0.673	0.505
9	-	Angels	0.344	0.414	0.339	174	4.70	4.61	6.0	3.4	1.0	171	-4.1	-10.4	0.690	0.497
10	-	Twins	0.347	0.417	0.338	183	5.20	4.91	6.2	3.0	1.4	192	-0.1	-0.8	0.696	0.476
11	-	Orioles	0.342	0.437	0.340	182	5.51	5.11	6.6	3.3	1.5	196	-9	-20	0.666	0.444
12	-	Mariners	0.305	0.378	0.305	138	4.25	4.46	6.8	3.7	1.0	178	10.6	-4.8	0.689	0.411
13	-	White Sox	0.317	0.385	0.306	132	4.71	4.05	7.0	3.8	0.7	150	-14.4	-19.2	0.667	0.398
14	-	Athletics	0.309	0.338	0.294	116	4.12	4.57	6.2	3.6	1.0	167	-0.2	-11.2	0.689	0.333

The only major disparity I see is with the Indians, who have apparently hit and pitched well enough to expect a 0.500 record, and yet are somehow 10 games below 0.500. Their true pythagorean record is 17 wins, but indications here are that they've given up quite a few more runs than expected. Are they just unlucky, or are the methods missing in this case? Part of the answer might be with the fielding estimates: bUZR rates them as only slightly below average, but THT's batted-ball based plus/minus stat (as well as straight-up DER) pegs them at second-worst in the league. Perhaps bUZR is overrating their defense?

What's up with the Athletics offense? They add Giambi, Holliday, and Nomah, and yet have a wOBA under 0.300? Beane must be blowing a gasket.

• Top hitting teams (wOBA*): Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox (holy AL East!)
  
• Top pitching teams (FIP*):Royals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners
  
• Top fielding teams (bUZR): Rays, Rangers, Mariners (maybe), Blue Jays, Tigers
• "Expected" leaders: Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers
• "Expected" Wild card: Rays

Blue Jays rank in top five in hitting, pitching, and fielding. What will they have to do to keep their lead the rest of the way?