Friday, July 31, 2009

Reds Acquire Scott Rolen

Update: More on this trade here.

I'm leaving town for the weekend in 20 minutes, so only a little time.

Rolen's long been an outstanding talent, with a great bat and brilliant glove. He's also been someone who has a hard time staying healthy, which hurts his value. He's had a WAR of 2.5, 3, and by this season's end 3.5 to 4. I think it's safe to call him a 2.5-3 WAR player next year. That's worth somewhere around $11-15 million next year. He's paid $11M next yea, so it's fair value, possibly with a small surplus up to $4 M depending on the market.

Eddie has been a 1.5-2 WAR player, but might be lucky to post 1.5 WAR this year. I'll call him 1.5 WAR for next year. Hitting-wise, he's valuable. But the fielding kills his value, and I've long since given up hope he'll get much better. Eddie makes 4.75 M next year in his final arbitration year, while his value should be in the $5.5-6.5 range (again, depending on market).

So, if it was a 1:1 trade, it'd favor the Reds slightly, I think--we take more salary, but upgrade talent and (probably) get a larger surplus.

The question now is who the minor leaguer is. Alonso is a top-25 hitter, I think, which puts his value at ~$25 M. (if just top-50, $23 M). That would swing the deal in a HUGE way to Toronto. Latest reports are that he's not included.

Zach Stewart I don't know how to rate. If he's a top-100 pitcher, he's ~$10 M. Grade B, he's $7 M. Either way, favors Toronto, though not as bad as initial reactions...only by a few million or so. Roenicke is maybe another 1 WAR, which is ~$4.5 WAR.

So yeah, I think Toronto wins by $6M in value or so. Not a disaster, but not good. I don't like this deal. Rolen's old, still a good player, but he's not going to make this team a contender next year. And how much longer will he play? Will he be healthy?

Have to run. :(

2 comments:

  1. Rolen may be a fair value on the open market, but he's definitely not for the Reds. The marginal wins he provides over EE are worthless to us since they aren't going to put us in the playoffs. We're just flushing money down the toilet.

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  2. That pretty much mirrors my opinion of the deal. Except that I think the Reds did overpay, at least by a small amount. -j

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