Tony Cingrani to the bullpen

Tony Cingrani could be a weapon for the Reds out of
the bullpen this season.  But does it matter if the game
is already out of hand?
Photo credit: Patrick Reddick

There was big news out of Goodyear today when Bryan Price, for the first time since last season, indicated that Tony Cingrani is destined for the pen.  Some quotes from Doug Miller's article:

"It means that we're going to get Iglesias stretched out, and as of right now, we're looking at Tony as more of a relief option than as a starting option," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "We have to find a way to get out of the gates strong, and at this point in time, the feeling was that organizationally, Tony's better suited for us at the moment as a relief pitcher."
....
"We want to keep him strong and healthy, and we've had a hard time doing that the last two years. … So one of the things that we hope is that pitching out of the bullpen will allow him to be strong and remain strong, and then evaluate if we think it's a good idea to look at him as a starter in the future."

As I wrote last season, Cingrani has seen some fairly dramatic fluctuations in his fastball velocity in his short big-league career.  When throwing out of the pen in 2013, he showed about a 2 mph jump in velocity.  And last year, just before he went on the DL, he showed a severe loss in velocity, and struggled with arm problems the rest of the season.

In a lot of ways, moving Cingrani to the bullpen makes a lot of sense.  First, he's left-handed.  With Chapman the closer and Marshall perpetually injured, the only lefty the Reds have in the bullpen available in the late innings is Manny Parra.  Second, he is exactly the kind of guy that you'd expect to do really well in the pen: he has a fairly limited repertoire highlighted by an explosive fastball that he has already demonstrated that he can throw harder in shorter stints.  Third, as Price indicated, perhaps a move to the pen will be easier on his arm, allowing him to stay healthy and have a longer, more productive career.

That said, as Doug pointed out, he's had good success as a MLB starter despite his apparent limitations.  In 157 career MLB innings as a starter, he has a 3.78 xFIP and has struck out more than a batter per inning.  Steamer projects him for a 3.66 ERA, while ZiPS projects him for a 3.98 ERA.  I sort of expected the Reds to let him pitch his way out of the role, but that's not in the cards.

Still, given that the Reds have DeScalfani and Iglesias as viable options for #4 and #5 starters, and can fill in for Homer Bailey with one of the veteran replacement player cogs in camp, I can be on board with them shifting Cingrani to the pen to start the season.

But then Price said this:

"The thing is, when we have veteran guys like Marquis and Maholm, you're not going to use them for one start," Price said. "If they're going to be on our team, the hope is that they're on our team for an entire season, if not longer. And that's how we have to look at that. … You can back-and-forth a young guy. You can start a game or two and then go down to the Minor Leagues or go to the bullpen and help us as a long guy. So Marquis and Maholm are looking more like long-term, start-to-finish options for us."

...honestly, I'm speechless.  What?

Update: I'm still speechless, but fortunately Dave Cameron is not.  And he's right.

Prospecting Reds Pitchers with Steamer (2015)

Continuing my look at 2015 Reds prospects, here are Steamer projections for Reds top pitching prospects.  Here is the 2015 hitter prospects post, and here is my 2014 post on Reds pitching prospects.

The Reds are pitcher-heavy in their prospects, with a good number of both top-tier and mid-range prospects who could be ready for promotion in the next 12 to 18 months.

Age-25 Pitchers

Raisel Iglesias was signed last year after defecting from Cuba.  He has always been a relief pitcher, but the Reds think his four pitches can make him an effective starting pitcher.  He pitched as a starter in the Arizona Fall League, which, aside from this year's Spring Training, has been his only professional work in the United States.  Ideally, he will work out as a starter.  But at the same time, he's already 25, his stuff may be MLB ready in a relief role, and if he throws all season as a starter he will likely have a low inning limit.  Therefore, there's a lot of talk that he might pitch out of the Reds' bullpen most of the year.  I'm still hoping that they get him some starting experience later this season, but I'm ok with him being a reliever for some of the year.

Update 45 minutes after posting: news from the Reds today has Iglesias getting the nod as a starter over Tony Cingrani.  I'm surprised, but it is nice to see Iglesias being taken seriously as a potential starting pitcher.  Whether he'll be starting in Cincinnati or Louisville remains to be seen.

Age-24 Pitchers

Anthony DeScalfani was acquired in the Mat Latos trade, and seems very likely to break camp in the Reds' rotation.  While he might not have Tony Cingrani's ceiling, I'm pretty comfortable with DeSclafani as the Reds' #5 pitcher this year, and hope he gets that chance.

Age-23 Pitchers

This is an interesting group.  David Holmberg seemed to take a step back last year, at least early in the season, when he reportedly showed up to spring training out of shape and overweight.  He made a late-season appearance for the Reds, however, and held his own nicely.  He's down the pecking order a bit in terms of rotation jobs, but as a lefty there is always a chance that he might be asked to throw out of the bullpen this year.  Nevertheless, he's young enough, given his accomplishments, that he might still find his way into the rotation.

A few years ago, Daniel Corcino was among the most heralded of the Reds pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, regressed badly since then, and seems to be moving toward a career in the bullpen.  As a strong arm out of the pen, he does still have a shot at being a quality middle reliever, but I don't hold out a lot of hope that he'll ever provide a lot of value in the rotation.

Daniel Wright was a 2013 draftee out of Arkansas State University, and last year was his first season in as a full-time starter in professional baseball, and had a really nice 6.6 k/bb ratio (8.2 k/9, 1.2 bb/9).  He's a bit behind the others in terms of level, but should be in Pensacola at least some time this season.

Age-22 Pitchers

This is a big group, and represents a big chunk of the core of the Reds' pitching talent in the minors.  Jon Moscot is the polished, low ceiling, high-floor guy, who easily could find himself in the big leagues this year.

Michael Lorenzen has been skyrocketing up the depth charts since he converted to a starting pitcher just two years ago, and reports out of spring training have been ridiculous (sitting 97-98 mph in relief, and wowing Bryan Price).  He, also, is being talked about as a potential reliever for the Reds this season.  Unlike Iglesias, Lorenzen has age on his side, and I personally see little reason to start his service time clock early.  If I was confident that the Reds have the organizational will to move a pitcher back into the rotation after having strong success in the bullpen, I might think differently.  But I just don't trust them to do it.

Amir Garrett, a former two-sport player, has quit basketball and is now focusing on baseball full-time.  He's making strides as a result.  Nick Howard and recently-acquired Jonathon Crawford are both 1st-round draft picks with good performances behind them so far.  And for some reason, Steamer didn't make a projection for Wyatt Strahan, but he, along with passed-through-waivers Ismael Guillon, is distantly behind the other guys in this group.

Age-21 Pitchers

Robert Stephenson struggled for the first time last season, showing a big spike in his walk rate as he apparently tried to harness his command and pitch selection.  Most talent evaluators didn't seem particularly worried, however, given the quality of his stuff and his reputation as a smart, hard-working guy.  For what it's worth, neither does Steamer: despite just now entering his age-21 season, and only reaching AA, Stephenson got the best ERA projection among all Reds prospects.  The #2 guy, DeSclafani, is slated to be in the Reds rotation to start the year.  Here's hoping he rebounds well this year and is pitching in Cincinnati by the fall.

Age-20 Pitchers

Here are two pitchers who made huge strides last year.  Nick Travieso was the Reds' 1st-round selection in 2012 out of high school, but it wasn't until last year, when he repeated with Dayton, that he really put together numbers that would justify that selection.  He's still not posting outstanding strikeout numbers, but the scouting reports seem very strong, and I'm seeing reports that his velocity is inching back up.

Sal Romano, who was also in the Dayton rotation last year, took a similar step forward, with even better peripherals than Travieso.  As a result, he shot up the prospect rankings, and is now seen as something of a sleeper.  Both are still very young, and provide some much-needed depth in the lower minors for Reds pitching.

Age-19 Pitchers

Tyler Mahle has appeared at the bottom of this post two years running now.  He's not getting a lot of attention, but he posted great peripherals out of Billings' rotation last year (4.7 k/bb, 8.3 k/9), and might be throwing in the midwest league next year as a 19-year old (like Travieso and Romano did last year).  He'll be one to watch.

Redleg Nation asks: Should the NL adopt the DH?

Would Reds fans get to see more of Joey Votto
during his career if they had a DH?  Yeah, maybe.
Photo credit: Keith Allison

Today, Redleg Nation ran a post asking its various contributors to weigh in on the question of whether the National League should adopt the Designated Hitter.  This isn't something imminent, but I think everyone realizes that with offense down, this could well become one of the strategies that baseball adopts to increase its run environment.

There are a lot of arguments against the DH.  One set of them is based on ideals.  "It's tradition." "Every player should have to field and bat." "This is how baseball is meant to be."  Those arguments don't do much for me.  Then there are other arguments for it based on strategy, which work better for me.  Having a pitcher spot in the lineup introduces interesting strategic elements into the game.  Here are at least some of them:

• When a pitcher is due up in the next inning, managers may be less likely to remove them mid-inning to set up a more favorable match-up.  This is an interesting decision, and might help prevent mid-inning pitching changes (which, in turn, might speed up games).
• When a pitcher is throwing well but a team needs offense, there is an equally-interesting decision to be made about whether to pinch hit for him.
• Double-switches are a fun, and have the consequence of removing a regular from a game in favor of a bench player.  
• The necessity of having at least a few pinch hitter appearances in most games guarantees bench players will get into games more often.

These arguments held sway over me for a long time.  But over the past year, I've come to like the DH.  Some reasons:

• Like it or not, pitchers are just not good at hitting.  In fact, one can use pitcher offense as a measure of league quality.  They aren't trained to do it, and it's not fun to watch them hit.
• It doesn't happen often, but sometimes pitchers get hurt hitting or running the bases.  To cut down on injury risk, they are not even encouraged to run with maximum effort.  Again, not fun to watch.
• The DH means fewer sacrifice bunts.
• The DH allows for some small amount of specialization to improve the quality of play: offensive lineups get better because bad-fielding hitters can still play, and defense gets better because bad-fielding hitters don't have to field.
• The DH allows hitters to get rest without actually taking a full game off.  Similarly, it sometimes allows players with a minor injuries to still play.  This should mean that fans get to see their favorite players in games more often.  Would Joey Votto have been able to play more last year if the Reds could use the DH?  I'm not sure, but maybe.
• Fewer pitchers should be needed per game because managers are not forced to pinch hit for a pitcher.  This should help keep bullpens more rested, and makes it easier for managers to get the match-ups they want in late innings.  
• It means that player performances decide games, not the machinations of managers.  That's what this game is all about.

So, there you have it.  Bring on the DH.  I'm finally converted.

Prospecting Reds Hitters with Steamer

As I did last year, tonight I'm reporting on preseason projections for the Reds' Top Prospects.  I find this to be a useful way to follow the progress of Reds prospects, since I do not track most of them closely from season to season.  Since Oliver doesn't seem to be readily available, I've switched to using Steamer this year.  While it does not provide baserunning or fielding projections, it provides deep projections throughout the minor leagues and seems appropriately conservative with prospects.  Reds Prospect rankings are based on this.

Caveat: No matter what the system, projection systems are NOT the ideal method to evaluate minor league players.  Scouting-based approaches work better, period.  But I can't scout.  And blending projections with top prospect lists was something that I took to doing when I was into fantasy baseball a few years ago.  If nothing else, it's place to start when trying learn players.  Keep in mind that all numbers below are projections for what the player would do in the major leagues.  In most cases, that's not relevant to what they'll do in the minors this season.  But it gives you an idea of how well they have developed to this point.

Age-24 Players

Graduating from this cohort last year was Billy Hamilton, and Tucker Barnhart seems just about ready to assume his career as a backup major league catcher.  He will probably never be much of a hitter, but he'll field well enough to be a valuable bench player.

Seth Mejias-Brean had another nice first half in Bakersfield last season, but struggled a bit when promoted to Pensacola.  If he can make the adjustment this year, he could be in Louisville by mid-summer.  I don't know if he will be a starter, but he could be an intriguing utility bat that provides nice on-base skills as early as next season.

Age-23 Players

Kyle Waldrop was the Reds' minor league hitter of the year in 2014, building upon what was already an impressive minor league resume.  He has shown good doubles power, some home run power already, makes contact well enough, and is on pace to reach AAA this year.  If only he were a bit more patient.

Chad Wallach was recently acquired in the Mat Latos trade, and has shown outstanding plate discipline skills so far.  I understand that his defense is well behind his offense, but I would like to see the Reds be fairly aggressive in promoting him this season given the state of his bat.

Age-22 Players

Yorman Rodriguez finally reached the big leagues last year as a 22-year old.  The astonishing thing about him is that since arriving in AA in 2013, he seemingly has learned to take a walk (9.4% BB last season).  His strikeouts were also down a bit (23%).  If he can keep his patience while improving his contact rates even more, or while showing a bit more power, he still can take a legitimate step forward.

2013's first-round draft pick Phil Ervin had a miserable season last year.  Injuries might have played a role, and it's worthwhile to remember how high we were on him this time last season.  I'm sure he'll repeat Dayton; let's all hope he has a big season.  Wouldn't it be strange for the one Reds' first round bust in recent years to be a college position player?

Alex Blandino is interesting to me, because it seems like Reds fan-prospect guys are more down on him than the national prospect guys.  That rarely happens, especially with an offense-oriented middle infielder.  Yeah, he probably won't stick at shortstop.  Nevertheless, he is showing decent power, which was the big concern on him when he was drafted out of Stanford.  I like him a little bit.  And quit it with the Chris Valaika comps, people.

Age-21 Players

Not surprisingly given his performance, level, and age, Jesse Winker has the best hitting projection of any Reds prospect.  That said, Steamer also still seems to think that he could use some more development time in the minor leagues.  I'm hearing that he is likely to start the season in AA, though I think we'd all be surprised if he's not at least in AAA by midseason.  If the Reds tank and they flip Marlon Byrd at the trade deadline, would you bring up Winker if he's mashing?  Or do you try to hide him until May 2016 to keep him longer?

Aristides Aquino is rose quickly in the prospect rankings this year on the back of his strong showing in Billings, but he still has yet to play over rookie ball.  I'm finding myself intrigued by Carlton Daal as the only middle-infielder not named Alex Blandino in the Reds system to make a top-prospect list, although Kiley McDaniel, at least, doesn't seem very impressed by his defense.

Jose Ortiz is a guy I keyed in on last year as being an interesting hitter out on the fringe.  For some reason, however, he didn't get a lot of playing time in 2014.  I haven't seen any reports of injury.  When he played, he didn't hit very well, but he didn't play a lot.

Age-20 Players

Drafted in the fourth round last year out of Carl Albert High School in Midwest City, Oklahoma, Gavin LaValley had a nice year for Goodyear before a short stint in Billings.  He'll be just 20 years old this year, but his performance was enough to vault him onto all but one top-xx Reds prospect list in my sample.

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Prospect Rankings

Taking a page from Chris St. John (and as I've done in the past), here are consensus rankings for 2015 Cincinnati Reds top prospects.  The methods, in brief: I collected top prospect lists from five sources that I respect and gave points to players based on their position on the rankings.  Being listed first earned a player 28 points, being listed second earned 27 points, and so on.  If a player was not ranked on a list, he did not earn points from that list.  The consensus rankings were then determined by simply totaling up the points for a player.

The lists:

• Baseball America
• Baseball Prospectus
• FanGraphs / Kiley McDaniel*
• Minor League Ball / John Sickels
• Reds Minor Leagues / Doug Gray**

* Kiley's list was published last November, and so did not include any of the newly acquired Reds.  Based on this comment and the average rank of a projected 45 FV prospect on the Reds' list, I gave DiSclafani an equivalent ranking to Kyle Waldrop.  I don't have any information on Kiley's opinions of Jonathon Crawford or Chad Wallach, so I just left them blank.  This likely underrates Crawford, at least.

** Doug's list has been updated to include these new arrivals, which pushed three previously-ranked players off his list.  I kept them, giving them ranks 26, 27, and 28.

Here is the list!

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Top Prospect List

Rank	Player	Total Pts	# Lists	Avg Rnk	Change
1	Robert Stephenson	139	5	1.2	+0
2	Jesse Winker	134	5	2.2	+2
3	Michael Lorenzen	129	5	3.2	+5
4	Nick Howard	114	5	6.2	1st Rnd
5	Nick Travieso	108	5	7.4	+4
6	Raisel Iglesias	97	4	4.8	Intl. FA
7	Yorman Rodriguez	88	4	7.0	-2
T-8	Anthony DeSclafani	84	4	8.0	Trade
T-8	Alex Blandino	84	4	8.0	1st Rnd
10	Amir Garrett	83	4	8.3	+7
T-11	Phillip Ervin	74	4	10.5	-8
T-11	Aristides Aquino	74	4	10.5	+12
13	Kyle Waldrop	50	3	12.3	+14
14	Sal Romano	49	3	12.7	+27
15	Gavin LaValley	43	4	18.3	4th Rnd
16	Seth Mejias-Brean	33	3	18.0	+2
17	Jonathon Crawford	29	2	14.5	Trade
18	Taylor Sparks	26	3	20.3	2nd Rnd
19	Tucker Barnhart	25	2	16.5	-6
T-20	Jon Moscot	22	2	18.0	-8
T-20	Junior Arias	22	2	18.0	+4
22	Tyler Mahle	17	2	20.5	+13
23	Wyatt Strahan	16	2	21.0	3rd Rnd
24	Daniel Corcino	16	1	13.0	-13
25	Chad Wallach	15	2	21.5	Trade
26	Ismael Guillon	10	2	24.0	-12
27	David Holmberg	10	1	19.0	-21
28	Carlton Daal	8	1	21.0	---
29	Jose Ortiz	7	1	22.0	-15
30	Jeremy Kivel	5	1	24.0	-11
T-31	Jackson Stephens	3	1	26.0	-10
T-31	Daniel Wright	3	1	26.0	---
33	Sebastian Elizalde	1	1	28.0	Intl. FA

Big risers include Michael Lorenzen, Nick Travieso (who were already ranked well), Aristides Aquino, Kyle Waldrop, and Sal Romano.

Big fallers include Phillip Ervin, Jon Moscot (due to pessimism on ceiling rather than performance), Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Jose Ortiz.

Among the top-10, the guy this methodology may be missing low on is Rasiel Iglesias.  He didn't make Baseball Prospectus's top-10 list, but otherwise was ranked aggressively on the other lists (average of 5th).  Reports out of spring training have been very positive on him, though Michael Lorenzen seems to be stealing the show.

2014 4th round pick Gavin LaValley also caught my eye.  He didn't make Baseball America's top-10 list, but appeared everywhere...including Baseball Prospectus's top-10.  Former football player-turned-thinner baseball player with good power potential.

Reactions?  Thoughts?

Cistulli on the importance of the first-round pick

Carson Cistulli is working through an excellent series looking at the demographics of a "good" player, which he defined as any player who posted at least 3 WAR in any one season from 2010-2014.  Yesterday's edition focused on players who had been drafted, which, based on his prior article, account for about 75% of all good players during that stretch (the others being international or undrafted free agents).  He broke them down by draft round.  Here's what he found for high school draftees:

College players broke down in much the same manner.  There was an interesting difference for junior college draftees, but nevertheless the result is really clear: about half of all players who put up a well above-average season are taken in the first round.  Half!

A lot of fans and people in the media tend to discount importance of draft status in baseball, sometimes equating it to a crapshoot.  We see first-round busts all the time, and we see players who were drafted much later in the draft who put up big numbers.  Nevertheless, every time there's a study done, we see that first round players are far better bets to be productive, and (from other studies) produce far more wins for their teams than later-round selections.

Another small point: the draft is almost entirely the domain of the scout.  Developing baseball players is prone to enormous uncertainty.  Nevertheless, scouts still do a really good job of identifying the best players to take in the early rounds of the draft.

2015 Reds Team Projections

Here's a look at the team projections from BPro and FanGraphs.  We'll go alphabetically:

Baseball Prospectus NL Central Projections

Well, that's ducky.  Baseball Prospectus sees the Cardinals as the clear favorite in the division (a 5-game lead is quite a bit in a team projection), with the Cubs playing second-fiddle, and the rest of the teams more or less equivalent to one another.  The Reds are projected to have the worst offense in the division, by a significant margin, but a fine defense that leads to good run prevention.

Here are PECOTA-projected run scored and runs allowed, after park adjustments, for all NL teams:

In this graph, the best teams are in the bottom-right.  The top-left is a bad place to be, and it's inhabited by four teams that are widely expected to struggle.  The only thing keeping the Reds out of the top-left, as it turns out, is their fielding: the Reds have the second-best fielding projection in the NL, and it pulls their overall defense (pitching + fielding) down into the better-than-average area.

The Dodgers look really good, don't they?  Washington Nationals check in as the best pitching-and-defense by a hair on the strength of their rotation, whereas the Cardinals should have the best offense of any team not called the Dodgers.  I think the Pirates are interesting here: PECOTA likes their offense a lot, but has major concerns about their ability to hold their opponents in check.  After park adjustments, they have the second-worst pitching-and-fielding combination in the league, behind only the Rockies.

The surprise might be the Cubs, who, along with the much-improved Padres, edge their way into the "good" quadrant by projecting as slightly better than average on offense and defense.  With their offseason additions, and with their young players starting to take MLB jobs, they are probably the most interesting team to watch in our division (<-yes a="" bit="" hey="" hurts="" it="" nbsp="" p="" re="" scary.="" that="" to="" write="">

FanGraphs NL Central Projections

Things aren't a lot rosier when it comes to the FanGraphs projections.  Actually, they're worse.  FanGraphs sees the Central a lot closer to a three-team race, with the Pirates getting a five-game jump on this system to be right in the thick of it with the Cardinals and Cubs.  The Brewers and Reds are ranked a distant 4th and 5th, respectively.

Here are the pythags:

Sigh.  Minor note: the projected run environment is a tad lower with FanGraphs, averaging 640 runs per team instead of 653 runs per team.

In any case, FanGraphs is not quite as bullish on the Reds' ability to prevent runs as BPro, while being just as pessimistic on their ability to generate runs.  As with BPro, FanGraphs sees the Reds' fielding as superb, +22 runs above average.  But their pitching isn't rated quite as highly, which means overall they are pegged as a slightly below-average defense coupled with a well below-average offense--and that's even WITH Joey Votto projected to get 550 PA's, which seems darn optimistic to me right now.

Some other interesting things: FanGraphs likes the Cardinals' and Pirates run prevention a LOT more than BPro.  Pittsburgh elevates all the way to average run prevention.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals vault into the exhaulted well-above-average territory, inching toward the Dodgers and Nationals in the "Uber-team" category.  Meanwhile, the Cubs stay right where they were, again looking like a legitimate threat in the Central.

Take-Aways

Team-level projections have huge error bars around them because you more or less compound all of the error on teach player projection to sum it up to the team level.

But they are identifying some important problems for team, even if it's healthy.  They're going to be playing 1-2 position players who are arguably not deserving of starting jobs in Byrd and Cozart.  Their bench is basically a collection of replacement players, and provides little depth outside of Eugenio Suarez (if he even gets to play).  The rotation isn't what it was when the 2012-2013 Mat Latos was here, and again offers little depth after the first few guys.  And the bullpen could be Aroldis Chapman and a bunch of replacement guys.  And these projections assume that everyone is more or less healthy, which is far from certain.

There's a brighter, rosier side to each of those arguments.  The fan in me wants to protest on most of those points.  I want to believe that Jay Bruce is going to bounce back.  I want to buy into a lot of our bullpen arms, and I certainly like Mike Leake a lot more than FanGraphs does.  And I take some heart in that no position is projected to be replacement level, unlike last year's left field situation.

Still, whereas last season I was still pretty optimistic about the Reds despite mediocre projections, this season I'm probably more pessimistic than optimistic.  This feels more like the seasons when I broke in as a Reds blogger, extolling the offensive virtues of Rich Aurilia, than things did during the 2010-2013 seasons.

In a way, it's sort of relaxing.  I'm excited for baseball this season, and I don't feel like I'm setting myself up to have my heart broken by this team.  I'll cheer them on, and watch their progress with interest.  And who knows?  Maybe they'll still surprise.

Reds spend second-least on free agents in baseball

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Jeff Todd summarized the spending by all 30 MLB teams on free agents this offseason.  The Reds signed exactly one player: Burke Badenhop to a $2.5 million deal.  That ranks second to last in all of baseball:

Full story here!

Belated Transactions: Reds acquire Marlon Byrd

This past December 31st, my kids adopted their first dog.  It was a long time coming, as the dog had to wait until after our trip overseas.  It's been a great experience for the girls, and my youngest (at least) is taking the role of responsible pet owner with tremendous enthusiasm.  Needless it say, it was a major acquisition for the family.

The Reds made not-quite-so-major an acquisition that same day when they traded Ben Lively for Marlon Byrd and $4 million.  This apparently "solved" their left field situation for next season, with a same-cost club option for 2016.

What the Reds traded: RHP Ben Lively

Lively was the Reds' 4th round selection in 2013 out of the University of Central Florida.  His 2014 season, his first full professional season, was one worth talking about.  I tend to be fairly ignorant of what is happening in the minors, and yet it was hard to not be excited by what he did last season.

After mowing through high-A in breathtaking fashion, Lively was promoted mid-season to Pensacola where he continued to be effective.  He continue to pile on the strikeouts, the hallmark of his career thus far, though he showed a surprising spike in his control rate.  Nevertheless, his numbers were solid enough, and he looks ready to jump to AAA in the 2015 season, and maybe even the majors by the end of the season.  Both ZiPS and Steamer think he wouldn't embarrass himself this year in the majors.  With the exception of that AA walk rate, he had everything you might hope for in a minor league pitching line.

So given that the Reds are set to be without a rotation after 2015, why would the Reds trade away what looks like the ace of the future?  Well, here's Kiley McDaniel's prospect profile on Lively following the season:

13. Ben Lively, RHP Lively was a 4th round pick out of UCF in 2013 and has beat expectations so far, with 79 stellar innings in the hitter-friendly Cal League this year before 72 more solid innings in Double-A.  Lively’s performance may overstate his raw ability a bit; he’s a back-end starter that sits 90-93 and hits 95 mph with four average-ish pitches, led by a slider that’s a 55 at times.  There’s deception and about average command; Lively’s delivery isn’t great but he manages to make it work for him and he throws strikes.

Well, that might explain the Reds' thinking.  McDaniel is arguing that Lively is one of those polished college arms that can carve up low-minors hitting, but doesn't have the stuff to play at the higher levels.  Lively is still a legitimate MLB prospect, perhaps it's more like a future Tommy Milone than a future Max Scherzer.

Milone might be a nice comp, because he had a similar contrast between his scouting reports and his performance prior to reaching the major leagues.  Across four seasons, Milone has been a useful starter, but we're seeing the limitations of his skills.  ...  Then again, Milone throws 87 mph, while Lively sits in the low 90's, so maybe the comp doesn't work.

What they got: RHB OF Marlon Byrd

Marlon Byrd was the Phillies' 10th round selection out of Georgia Perimeter College back in 1999.  Despite his lateish-round pedigree, he quickly mashed his way onto prospect lists, peaking at #26 with both speed and prodigious power displays in the minor leagues.  He reached the majors as a 24-year old, and was starting the next season.

After an excellent rookie campaign, Byrd struggled for a while through his late 20's, ultimately was traded to the Nationals, and then signed on with the Rangers as a free agent.  It was in Texas where he seemed to find himself as a 29-year old, and Byrd went on to post four consecutive above-average offensive seasons for the Rangers and Cubs.

His most recent four years have had huge ups and downs.  Some years, he's been completely awful (2012, -1.0 fWAR in just 153 PA's; it's hard to be that bad in so little playing time!).  And yet during other recent years he has had some of the best seasons of his career (4.1 fWAR in 2013 with Mets and Pirates).  Last year, as a 36-year old with the Phillies, he more or less played to his career line, albeit with less on base skill and more power.  He clearly seems to have been trading power for contact the last few years, based on the spike in both his power output and his strikeout rate, though he's not walking more to compensate for this.  I can see those kinds of trends, but how does one tell whether he's likely to crater again like he did in '12?

He'll be 37 next season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him drop off a cliff (Steamer projects .246/.294/.403 with 0.3 WAR).  But at the same time, if he can stay healthy, he's only two years removed from a 4 WAR season, so he has upside (ZIPS puts him at .271/.314/.481, 2.6 WAR).  If we split the difference between Steamer and ZiPS, maybe we consider him a 1.5 WAR player.  That would only be a small regression from last season, so it seems reasonable to me.

Given that the Reds are paying only $4 million of the $8 million he is owned next season, they're paying for less than 1 win, and hoping for more.  From that perspective, it's a good contract, and they might just luck into another 3 win season from him.

Summary Opinion

Here's the argument for this trade from the Reds' perspective: if the scouting reports are correct, Ben Lively might never be so valuable as he is right now.  He might still crack a big league rotation in his career, but he's unlikely to be particularly valuable.  And he might find that his stuff simply won't cut it in the upper minors and just flame out.  "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect," the prospect guys hate him anyway, and the Reds already have a good number of these back-end rotation prospects (Jon Moscot, for example).  They swapped Lively at his peak value for a guy in Byrd who has very low salary cost and is two seasons away from producing at an all-star level.  He should (hopefully?) fill the gigantic hole in left field that they dealt with last season, and can be brought back in 2016 if Jesse Winker isn't ready by then.

I get all of that.  I'm just hoping that the Reds' scouts are right about Lively.  Because the Reds could look mighty foolish if he goes on to by a solid mid-rotation starter, and meanwhile Byrd goes on to replicate Ryan Ludwick's 2014 season.