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Wednesday, March 11, 2015

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Prospect Rankings

Taking a page from Chris St. John (and as I've done in the past), here are consensus rankings for 2015 Cincinnati Reds top prospects.  The methods, in brief: I collected top prospect lists from five sources that I respect and gave points to players based on their position on the rankings.  Being listed first earned a player 28 points, being listed second earned 27 points, and so on.  If a player was not ranked on a list, he did not earn points from that list.  The consensus rankings were then determined by simply totaling up the points for a player.

The lists:
* Kiley's list was published last November, and so did not include any of the newly acquired Reds.  Based on this comment and the average rank of a projected 45 FV prospect on the Reds' list, I gave DiSclafani an equivalent ranking to Kyle Waldrop.  I don't have any information on Kiley's opinions of Jonathon Crawford or Chad Wallach, so I just left them blank.  This likely underrates Crawford, at least.

** Doug's list has been updated to include these new arrivals, which pushed three previously-ranked players off his list.  I kept them, giving them ranks 26, 27, and 28.

Here is the list!

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Top Prospect List

Rank
Player
Total Pts
# Lists
Avg Rnk
Change
1
Robert Stephenson
139
5
1.2
+0
2
Jesse Winker
134
5
2.2
+2
3
Michael Lorenzen
129
5
3.2
+5
4
Nick Howard
114
5
6.2
1st Rnd
5
Nick Travieso
108
5
7.4
+4
6
Raisel Iglesias
97
4
4.8
Intl. FA
7
Yorman Rodriguez
88
4
7.0
-2
T-8
Anthony DeSclafani
84
4
8.0
Trade
T-8
Alex Blandino
84
4
8.0
1st Rnd
10
Amir Garrett
83
4
8.3
+7
T-11
Phillip Ervin
74
4
10.5
-8
T-11
Aristides Aquino
74
4
10.5
+12
13
Kyle Waldrop
50
3
12.3
+14
14
Sal Romano
49
3
12.7
+27
15
Gavin LaValley
43
4
18.3
4th Rnd
16
Seth Mejias-Brean
33
3
18.0
+2
17
Jonathon Crawford
29
2
14.5
Trade
18
Taylor Sparks
26
3
20.3
2nd Rnd
19
Tucker Barnhart
25
2
16.5
-6
T-20
Jon Moscot
22
2
18.0
-8
T-20
Junior Arias
22
2
18.0
+4
22
Tyler Mahle
17
2
20.5
+13
23
Wyatt Strahan
16
2
21.0
3rd Rnd
24
Daniel Corcino
16
1
13.0
-13
25
Chad Wallach
15
2
21.5
Trade
26
Ismael Guillon
10
2
24.0
-12
27
David Holmberg
10
1
19.0
-21
28
Carlton Daal
8
1
21.0
---
29
Jose Ortiz
7
1
22.0
-15
30
Jeremy Kivel
5
1
24.0
-11
T-31
Jackson Stephens
3
1
26.0
-10
T-31
Daniel Wright
3
1
26.0
---
33
Sebastian Elizalde
1
1
28.0
Intl. FA
Big risers include Michael Lorenzen, Nick Travieso (who were already ranked well), Aristides Aquino, Kyle Waldrop, and Sal Romano.

Big fallers include Phillip Ervin, Jon Moscot (due to pessimism on ceiling rather than performance), Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Jose Ortiz.

Among the top-10, the guy this methodology may be missing low on is Rasiel Iglesias.  He didn't make Baseball Prospectus's top-10 list, but otherwise was ranked aggressively on the other lists (average of 5th).  Reports out of spring training have been very positive on him, though Michael Lorenzen seems to be stealing the show.

2014 4th round pick Gavin LaValley also caught my eye.  He didn't make Baseball America's top-10 list, but appeared everywhere...including Baseball Prospectus's top-10.  Former football player-turned-thinner baseball player with good power potential.

Reactions?  Thoughts?