2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Prospect Rankings

Taking a page from Chris St. John (and as I've done in the past), here are consensus rankings for 2015 Cincinnati Reds top prospects.  The methods, in brief: I collected top prospect lists from five sources that I respect and gave points to players based on their position on the rankings.  Being listed first earned a player 28 points, being listed second earned 27 points, and so on.  If a player was not ranked on a list, he did not earn points from that list.  The consensus rankings were then determined by simply totaling up the points for a player.

The lists:

• Baseball America
• Baseball Prospectus
• FanGraphs / Kiley McDaniel*
• Minor League Ball / John Sickels
• Reds Minor Leagues / Doug Gray**

* Kiley's list was published last November, and so did not include any of the newly acquired Reds.  Based on this comment and the average rank of a projected 45 FV prospect on the Reds' list, I gave DiSclafani an equivalent ranking to Kyle Waldrop.  I don't have any information on Kiley's opinions of Jonathon Crawford or Chad Wallach, so I just left them blank.  This likely underrates Crawford, at least.

** Doug's list has been updated to include these new arrivals, which pushed three previously-ranked players off his list.  I kept them, giving them ranks 26, 27, and 28.

Here is the list!

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Top Prospect List

Rank	Player	Total Pts	# Lists	Avg Rnk	Change
1	Robert Stephenson	139	5	1.2	+0
2	Jesse Winker	134	5	2.2	+2
3	Michael Lorenzen	129	5	3.2	+5
4	Nick Howard	114	5	6.2	1st Rnd
5	Nick Travieso	108	5	7.4	+4
6	Raisel Iglesias	97	4	4.8	Intl. FA
7	Yorman Rodriguez	88	4	7.0	-2
T-8	Anthony DeSclafani	84	4	8.0	Trade
T-8	Alex Blandino	84	4	8.0	1st Rnd
10	Amir Garrett	83	4	8.3	+7
T-11	Phillip Ervin	74	4	10.5	-8
T-11	Aristides Aquino	74	4	10.5	+12
13	Kyle Waldrop	50	3	12.3	+14
14	Sal Romano	49	3	12.7	+27
15	Gavin LaValley	43	4	18.3	4th Rnd
16	Seth Mejias-Brean	33	3	18.0	+2
17	Jonathon Crawford	29	2	14.5	Trade
18	Taylor Sparks	26	3	20.3	2nd Rnd
19	Tucker Barnhart	25	2	16.5	-6
T-20	Jon Moscot	22	2	18.0	-8
T-20	Junior Arias	22	2	18.0	+4
22	Tyler Mahle	17	2	20.5	+13
23	Wyatt Strahan	16	2	21.0	3rd Rnd
24	Daniel Corcino	16	1	13.0	-13
25	Chad Wallach	15	2	21.5	Trade
26	Ismael Guillon	10	2	24.0	-12
27	David Holmberg	10	1	19.0	-21
28	Carlton Daal	8	1	21.0	---
29	Jose Ortiz	7	1	22.0	-15
30	Jeremy Kivel	5	1	24.0	-11
T-31	Jackson Stephens	3	1	26.0	-10
T-31	Daniel Wright	3	1	26.0	---
33	Sebastian Elizalde	1	1	28.0	Intl. FA

Big risers include Michael Lorenzen, Nick Travieso (who were already ranked well), Aristides Aquino, Kyle Waldrop, and Sal Romano.

Big fallers include Phillip Ervin, Jon Moscot (due to pessimism on ceiling rather than performance), Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Jose Ortiz.

Among the top-10, the guy this methodology may be missing low on is Rasiel Iglesias.  He didn't make Baseball Prospectus's top-10 list, but otherwise was ranked aggressively on the other lists (average of 5th).  Reports out of spring training have been very positive on him, though Michael Lorenzen seems to be stealing the show.

2014 4th round pick Gavin LaValley also caught my eye.  He didn't make Baseball America's top-10 list, but appeared everywhere...including Baseball Prospectus's top-10.  Former football player-turned-thinner baseball player with good power potential.

Reactions?  Thoughts?