Prospecting Reds Pitchers with Steamer

Continuing our look at the Reds' prospects for the 2016 season season, tonight we'll turn our attention to the pitchers.  As with hitters, I'm using Steamer projections, grouping by age, and am including players who were on the active roster last year in these age groups but who no longer have rookie eligibility.

Age-25 Pitchers

The wrap on John Lamb when the Reds acquired him last summer was that he was a former elite prospect who never saw his velocity return following Tommy John surgery.  The thing was, when the Reds got him, his velocity was back up to the 92-93 mph range where it had been pre-surgery.  That ultimately did fade a bit, but he still finished with an average mlb fastball velocity of 91 mph (the bad velocity wrap started when he was maxing out in the high-80's the year before).  On top of that, he struck out well over a batter per inning, while keeping his walk rates acceptable.  The main criticism one can have of his peripherals, at least, is that he has thus far been a fairly severe fly ball pitcher with just a 37% ground ball rate.  Yeah, I know, 5.80 ERA.  But .376 BABIP.

Steamer believes.  And other analysts are taking note as well.  Most interesting was this note by Eno Sarris:

But when it comes to movement, he's set up for success. A nice riding four-seam, a decent cutter, and then that change. That change. With a 15 mph difference between it and the four-seam, Lamb owns the biggest velocity differential in baseball. Plus movement and velocity difference led to whiffs almost a quarter of the time he threw it, so it has real potential to be an elite pitch. In fact, his curve, cutter, and change all had plus whiff rates. Not above-average. Plus.

Biggest velocity differential in baseball.  Assuming that's a good thing (Chris Dial doesn't think so), it provides some extra support for those fantastic strikeout numbers.  I'm probably irrationally, wildly, sky high on John Lamb.  He's exactly the sort of guy I will flock to: a peripherals darling, overlooked by the casual fan, with pitchf/x things to point to indicating it is real.  I know I'll have to wait a little bit while he ramps up following back surgery (just hopin' that's ok), but I'm really excited to see what he does this year.


Age-24 Pitchers

Big group, and a lot of these guys look to play a role on the club in the near future.

Zack Weiss is a rising relief prospect.  Relief prospects are the worst kind of prospect, but Weiss's projection indicates that he's ready to contribute to the bullpen right now.  The Reds surely need some help in that regard.

Amir Garrett was a big riser in the Reds' prospect rankings this season, climbing all the way to #4 after giving up basketball and focusing exclusively on pitching.  Everything about him sounds good...except that he's entering his age-24 season and hasn't played above high-A.  Granted, he's fairly new to pitching, so it's not surprising that he's behind.  I'm sure he'll start in AA this year (he was just optioned there!).  If he can advance to AAA by the season's end, he'll be poised to crack the Cincinnati rotation by 2017, if all goes as well.

Michael Lorenzen rode a friendly luck dragon for the first month or so of his big league debut last season, but the fates predictably turned on him as time went on.  He didn't show the ability to avoid walks or miss bats throughout much of his stint with the Reds.  Nevertheless, at the same time, perhaps he was rushed a bit last season.  He advanced through the minors so quickly that 2015 was the first time he really failed.  It's far too soon to give up on the guy.  Here's hoping his elbow issue isn't serious.

Jonathon Crawford is a fascinating case of how quickly one's stock can fall.  He was a first-round selection in 2013, and turned in solidish performances in '13 and '14 (albeit with weak strikeout rates).  Last year, he was injured and missed most of the season.  He's getting older, but don't count out former top draft picks.  He's put up decent numbers before.  If his first half in AA (which is where I'd put him) doesn't go well this season, maybe you consider putting him in the pen and hoping he can rise quickly?

Finally, Jon Moscot is hoping for a shot to be a #5 starter.  Maybe he can be a #4 if things break right for him?  Maybe?  He won't strike guys out, but if he can avoid walks and get some ground balls then maybe can be a passable rotation cog.  My guess, unfortunately, is that he's destined for middle relief.

Age-23 Pitchers

And now here is an even bigger group!

Steamer approves heartily of the Reds' pickup of Rookie Davis, although it is worth noting that this is (for whatever reason) a projection for him as a reliever.  Brandon Finnegan also looks ready to roll as a reliever, though I'm keen to see him get a full season of starting before the Reds toss him back into relief.

Somewhat disappointing, perhaps, is the projection on Robert Stephenson, the Reds #1 prospect on most lists.  The key for Stephenson will be his ability to avoid the walk while staying effective.  His walk rates have been in excess of 4 bb/9 at both AA and AAA, so I'm very inclined to let him start the year in AAA despite the clamors we're hearing to promote him as soon as possible on the basis of his hype and spring training performance.  The prospect guys love his stuff, and we've certainly seen talented pitchers figure things out in the major leagues.  I remember trading Matt Harvey in my fantasy league back in 2012 when he was sporting a 4+ bb/9 rate, only to see him take a huge step forward and become Matt Effin' Harvey the next season.  But we've also seen guys who never figure it out and become nothing.  I'd wager there are more in the latter category than the former, but I'm rooting for him.

Cody Reed is a guy I'm pleasantly surprised to see rate so well.  Reed was another big riser year in prospect rankings as he took a significant step forward.  He was already rising when the Reds got him mid-season, and then he went on a crazy tear in the second half.  Steamer is giving him a reliever projection here, but what I'm taking from it is that not all of his rising expectation is just recency bias.

Nick Howard.  Sigh.  When I see Howard, I can't help but think that he's a case where the Reds just got too cute.  They had been having some success with the closer-to-starter thing with Cingrani and Lorenzen, so they followed suit by taking Howard.  He's been a catastrophe.  As I said with Crawford above, never count out a top pick entirely, but I think in his case, at least, the experiment with starting is over.  Now it's time to see if they can salvage a relief arm with him.

Age-22 Pitchers

I'm surprised to see that Sal Romano still is just 22 years old.  He was drafted back in 2012, and has been steadily showing improvement as he works his way through the system.  He got shelled at AA late last season, but seems likely to begin there as a 22-year old this season.  He hasn't shown particularly exciting peripherals, but he's always been young for his level.  Another good year, and he's suddenly banging on the door in Cinci.

Keury Mella was the main return for Mike Leake last summer.  He slots in with Nick Travieso as the top talents in this younger tier of prospects.  I'm been pretty tickled to see Travieso rising over the past few years, because for a while he looked like he'd been a lost selection.  He was so darn young when drafted, though, and the Reds patience and instruction is seemingly now paying off.  AA could be a big test for him.


Age-21 Pitchers and Below

Somewhat surprisingly, there aren't a lot of Reds pitching prospects entering their age-21 or below season. Tyler Mahle had a great season for Dayton last year and seems ready for his next step.  The other two didn't even get a projection in Steamer's database.  Both Antonio Santillan and Ian Kahaloa have appeared at the bottom of some of the various top-10 Reds lists, even if sometimes just listed below the top-10 as a guy to keep an eye on.

The Mike Leake Trade

The Reds have said goodbye to #44
Photo Credit: David

The Mike Leake era ended last week as the trading deadline approached.  No doubt having read my call to trade him (for the good of the Reds and for Mike Leake, himself), the Reds shipped him early Friday morning to the Giants in exchange for RHP Keury Mella and 1B Adam Duvall.

What the Reds Gave Up

Mike Leake, RHP, 27 years old

Mike Leake has been a favorite of mine since he was drafted out of Arizona State.  While he's always been in the background behind guys like Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, and Bailey, Mike Leake was involved in all three of the Reds' playoff teams in their recent run (2010-2013).  He literally contributed from day 1, making the Reds out of spring training in 2010 before he'd thrown a pitch in the minor leagues.  He's been remarkably consistent over that time, with a predictable recipe: he doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but he doesn't walk guys either, and he gets a lot of ground balls.  He's been particularly good over the past two seasons as he has gotten his ground ball rate up over 50%, and even spiked his strikeouts to almost 7 k/9 last season.

Despite his smaller frame, Leake has never really had injury problems.  He has been dependable, reliable, and as consistent as a mid-rotation starter will get.  He has always seemed like a good guy, too, despite his stupid shoplifting incident early on (which now is hilarious, in hindsight).  I'll miss him.  San Francisco should be a great fit for him (he will never give up home runs!  ever!), and I'll be cheering for him to get a nice payday this offseason with some deserving team.  He might end up being one of the better free agent deals; a still-young pitcher with reasonable inning totals, no injury history, and a guy who uses his defense.  The Pirates would love him, though I don't know if they'll be able to afford him.

What the Reds Got Back

RHP Keury Mella, RHP, 21 years old

Mella began the season as the Giants #4 prospect according to Baseball America, and by midseason they ranked him #2 in that organization thanks to improved secondary pitches.  Other prospectors have him #1.  Unfortunately, this is the problem with team prospect rankings: not all organizations are created equal.  Despite being one of the best prospects the Giants could offer, Mella most likely ranks behind two of the prospects the Reds received from the Royals for Johnny Cueto.  Kiley McDaniel rated him as a 45 future value prospect, noting that he had a violent dilivery and limited room to continue to develop.

Nevertheless, the results have been consistently good for Keury as he has moved through the Giants' system.  He is set to crack 100 innings for the first time this year, and is still just 21 years old.  The Reds hope he can stick as a starter, and noted that he can probably be a guy who moves quickly.

RHB 1B Adam Duvall, 26 years old

Since being drafted out of the University of Louisville (he's a native of Shively, KY, which is along the inner interstate loop around Louisville), Duvall's calling card has been his power.  He hit 30 home runs in 2012 for the Giants in high-A, and has sported .200+ ISO in all but his first minor league season.  The primary problem is that he doesn't have a lot of other skills.  He doesn't field well, though the Reds will see if might be able to play corner outfield.  His strikeout rates don't really look too terrible for a power hitter, but he hasn't been walking very much since reaching high-A.  This year, his walk rates are down even further, dropping from 8% in 2012-2014 down to 6%.  His upside looks like a potential bench guy who can provide power; that's something the Reds haven't really had since Chris Heisey was shipped to the Dodgers.

Compared to Other Rental Pitcher Deals

In my piece at Redleg Nation on the Cueto trade, I pulled up a set of comparable mid-season rental pitcher deals.  Leake would rank well behind guys like Cueto and Greinke, but fits pretty nicely with names like Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, and Ricky Nolasco; guys who can provide roughly 1 WAR over two months' time.  ZiPS has Leake as providing 0.9 WAR of value over the rest of this season, which seems right to me.

How does this deal compare to those ones?  The Scott Kazmir return seems to be much better than what the Reds got.  Kazmir is having a nice season, but to net a 50 FV catcher (even one who might not be able to catch) along with a 40 FV pitcher is really good for him.  Garza's return also looks better, at least given what they knew at the time.  Grimm was a MLB-ready pitcher, albeit one who hasn't worked out so far in their rotation.  Mike Olt was a top prospect having vision problems, and again seems to not be working out.  But he still had a lot of pedigree at the time.

The return for Leake seems fairly comparable to what the Indians got for Justin Masterson (a 45 FV prospect, although in that case an outfielder), or the return for Jake Peavy last summer (Edwin Escobar as a falling prospect, Heath Hembree as a marginal one).  It seems clearly better than the nothingness the Marlins received for Ricky Nolasco in 2013.

So, based on all of those comparables, I see this is as a fairly even return given Leake's value.  We'll just have to hope that the Reds are right and Mella is able to stick as a starting pitcher.  If so, it'll look like a great deal a few years from now.  If not...well, a good bullpen arm still might be the best return the Reds could hope to get for Leake, given that he might well accept a $17 million qualifying offer if they had given it to him this fall.