American League Update - Through 6/6/09

The American League has featured some changes in the division races over the last few weeks. Let's look:

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
BOS	33	23	0.589	0	286	5.1	241	4.3	32	95	86	0.538
NYA	32	23	0.582	0.5	317	5.8	287	5.2	30	94	86	0.542
TOR	31	27	0.534	3	287	5.0	263	4.5	31	87	83	0.567
TB	29	28	0.509	4.5	324	5.7	274	4.8	33	82	82	0.581
BAL	24	32	0.429	9	257	4.6	314	5.6	23	69	77	0.623

After the Yankees' own hot streak, the Red Sox had their own little hot streak, winning four of the last five. The Blue Jays went through a 9-game losing streak, and have since played 0.500 ball, falling out of first place. The beset Pythagorean record in the division continues to belong to the Devil Rays, who have only just gotten themselves above 0.500, winning 6 of their last 7.

Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
DET	29	25	0.537	0	268	5.0	235	4.4	30	87	83	0.565
MIN	28	29	0.491	2.5	280	4.9	273	4.8	29	80	81	0.590
CHA	26	29	0.473	3.5	216	3.9	243	4.4	25	77	80	0.598
KC	24	31	0.436	5.5	222	4.0	260	4.7	23	71	78	0.617
CLE	24	34	0.414	7	300	5.2	313	5.4	28	67	76	0.635

The story in this division: despite having outstanding pitching, the Royals have won just five games in their last 25. But they are still just 5.5 games back. Wow. The Twins are the only team on a reasonably hot stretch, and have pulled within three games of the stryggling. The Indians continue to be an underperforming team.

West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TEX	32	23	0.582	0	282	5.1	257	4.7	30	94	86	0.542
LAA	28	26	0.519	3.5	257	4.8	262	4.8	27	84	82	0.574
SEA	27	29	0.482	5.5	218	3.9	245	4.4	25	78	80	0.594
OAK	24	30	0.444	7.5	247	4.6	266	4.9	25	72	78	0.611

The Rangers are on a two-for-six skid, and the hobbled Angels are creeping closer, which makes it seem more likely that they can catch Texas once they get a bit more healthy. The A's are on a modest hot streak, but are talking about trading away Holliday already.

National League Update - Through 5/26/09

Sorry for my absence. Had a baby. You know how it goes.

Also, quick announcement: I've started writing, in at least a limited capacity, for Beyond the Boxscore. Thanks to Sky for giving me a spot over there and being flexible with my schedule.

Anyway, it's time for another look at the National League!

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
PHI	25	19	0.568	0	242	5.5	223	5.1	24	92	84	0.551
NYN	25	20	0.556	0.5	219	4.9	194	4.3	25	90	84	0.556
ATL	23	22	0.511	2.5	194	4.3	201	4.5	22	83	82	0.573
FLA	21	26	0.447	5.5	219	4.7	261	5.6	20	72	79	0.600
WAS	13	32	0.289	12.5	222	4.9	280	6.2	17	47	72	0.658

The Defending Champions have pulled ahead, though Pythagoras still prefers the Mets. The Braves are hanging in there, however, with the pitching staff in baseball (so far). Florida's falling, but still within striking distance...but they haven't done much since the first few weeks to warrant any concern. The Nationals are better than their record, but probably have the worst pitching/fielding combination in baseball.

Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
MIL	27	19	0.587	0	216	4.7	199	4.3	25	95	85	0.543
STL	27	19	0.587	0	218	4.7	186	4.0	26	95	85	0.543
CIN	25	20	0.556	1.5	203	4.5	194	4.3	23	90	84	0.556
CHN	22	22	0.500	4	193	4.4	192	4.4	22	81	81	0.576
PIT	21	25	0.457	6	207	4.5	203	4.4	23	74	79	0.595
HOU	18	26	0.409	8	194	4.4	228	5.2	19	66	77	0.610

The Brewers and Cardinals are locked in a struggle for first. Pythagoras likes the Cardinals a bit more, but the Brewers are a quality team. The Reds, Cubs, and Pirates are all pretty similar to one another according to Pythagoras, though according to my power rankings (see BtB today!), the Pirates have a slight edge over the Reds, with the Cubs ranking well below them (with the Astros) on the heels of a major losing streak. The Cubs have a ton of talent, however, so I'm not convinced we won't see them surge one of these days. The Astros could well finish in the basement by season's end.

West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
LAN	32	15	0.681	0	273	5.8	186	4.0	32	110	90	0.504
SD	23	23	0.500	8.5	196	4.3	230	5.0	20	81	81	0.578
SF	22	23	0.489	9	174	3.9	180	4.0	22	79	81	0.581
ARI	20	26	0.435	11.5	186	4.0	212	4.6	20	70	78	0.603
COL	18	27	0.400	13	201	4.5	216	4.8	21	65	77	0.615

The Padres have been hot-hot-hot, but the Mannyless Dodgers just keep on winning. As a result, the Padres haven't gained any ground on the division leaders since my last post, even while they passed the Giants and Rockies by. If I were running the Diamondbacks, I have to say I'd be wondering what happened. Upton, Reynolds, and Felipe freaking Lopez have hit just fine, but seriously: Chris Young (0.235 wOBA), Conor Jackson (0.253), Chad Tracy (0.253), Stephen Drew (0.253), Eric Byrnes (0.281)? Yikes. The good news is that if a few of those guys get going, their defense has been decent enough that a wild card run isn't completely out of the question. But that better start happening soon.

American League Update - Through 5/16/09

Tonight, I'm going to take a look at the junior circuit.

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TOR	25	14	0.641	0	219	5.6	167	4.3	24	104	87	0.528
BOS	22	15	0.595	2	198	5.4	180	4.9	20	96	85	0.544
NYA	19	17	0.528	4.5	195	5.4	210	5.8	17	86	82	0.563
TB	18	20	0.474	6.5	203	5.3	189	5.0	20	77	80	0.581
BAL	16	21	0.432	8	186	5.0	216	5.8	16	70	79	0.592

As much as hate to admit it, this is probably the most interesting division in baseball right now. The Red Sox and Yankees should have very good teams, and the Rays--despite their record--have played every bit as tough as the rich teams. But the Blue Jays have been the class of the division thus far, sporting both the best offensive and the best defensive (pitching + fielding) performances. You have to expect some of Toronto's hitter's to fall back to earth--none of Barajas (0.820), Hill (0.927), and Scutaro (0.869) have OPS'd over 0.800 before this season. And they've gotten unreal pitching performances from Romero and Cecil. It will be interesting to see how long they can hold off their division rivals.

Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
DET	19	16	0.543	0	190	5.4	163	4.7	20	88	83	0.559
KC	19	18	0.514	1	166	4.5	151	4.1	20	83	82	0.568
MIN	18	19	0.486	2	181	4.9	197	5.3	17	79	81	0.576
CHA	15	20	0.429	4	135	3.8	162	4.6	15	69	79	0.591
CLE	14	24	0.368	6.5	198	5.2	218	5.7	17	60	76	0.613

Another rather evenly matched division, though perhaps without the quality of the east. The Tigers have had the best offense, but the Royals have had the best defense--thanks in no small part to the spectacular first month and a half for Zach Greinke. Nice also to see Brian Bannister having a nice bit of success in the early goings. The Tigers have their own surprise--Brandon Inge is OPSing 0.954--but they have a lot of guys who aren't really hitting yet (Granderson, Guillen, Ordonez) and thus might actually improve even as Inge cools.

West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TEX	22	14	0.611	0	200	5.6	174	4.8	20	99	85	0.540
LAA	18	17	0.514	3.5	177	5.1	179	5.1	17	83	82	0.567
SEA	17	20	0.459	5.5	152	4.1	179	4.8	16	74	80	0.584
OAK	13	20	0.394	7.5	145	4.4	162	4.9	15	64	78	0.597

The Angels have had as much bad luck and tragedy as any team I can remember, but still are right at 0.500 thanks their great depth. The Rangers, though, have taken advantage of the weak division, riding hot starts by Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Kevin Millwood to a nice little division lead. Not as impressive is the offense of Ken Griffey Jr.'s Seattle Mariners. Thank goodness they at least have Russell Branyon.

Team performance breakdown

Below is a kind of power ranking of teams based on their component statistics. I estimate team runs scored using linear weights (actually, FanGraphs does, though I park-adjust it), pitching performance based on FIP (I do park-adjust the HR's), and fielding based on UZR. I use those numbers to estimate team runs scored and runs allowed, and then use PythagenPat to estimate expected winning percentage. It's not perfect, but this should give us another look at team performance that gets beyond actual wins, losses, and runs scored or allowed.

			Offense				Pitching						Fielding			Overall
Rank	Prev	Team	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	wRC*	ERA	FIP*	K/9	BB/9	HR*/9	FIPRuns*	bUZR	THT+/-	DER	ExptW%
1	-	Blue Jays	0.359	0.460	0.356	225	3.97	4.23	6.8	3.1	0.9	181	6.2	24.8	0.720	0.619
2	-	Rays	0.346	0.452	0.357	214	4.83	4.83	6.5	3.8	1.2	191	16.3	0	0.689	0.595
3	-	Royals	0.335	0.421	0.334	174	3.63	3.76	7.5	3.4	0.7	149	-3.8	-4.8	0.685	0.560
4	-	Rangers	0.335	0.496	0.357	201	4.66	5.02	5.3	3.4	1.2	192	15.2	19.2	0.712	0.560
5	-	Tigers	0.340	0.426	0.337	170	4.31	4.29	7.3	3.6	1.0	160	4.7	8.8	0.704	0.544
6	-	Red Sox	0.364	0.451	0.351	204	4.82	4.67	7.4	4.0	1.1	185	-12	-7.2	0.677	0.517
7	-	Yankees	0.350	0.467	0.358	211	5.41	5.28	7.2	4.2	1.4	203	-4.1	4	0.691	0.509
8	-	Indians	0.355	0.420	0.345	204	5.62	5.03	6.6	4.0	1.3	199	-2.8	-12.8	0.673	0.505
9	-	Angels	0.344	0.414	0.339	174	4.70	4.61	6.0	3.4	1.0	171	-4.1	-10.4	0.690	0.497
10	-	Twins	0.347	0.417	0.338	183	5.20	4.91	6.2	3.0	1.4	192	-0.1	-0.8	0.696	0.476
11	-	Orioles	0.342	0.437	0.340	182	5.51	5.11	6.6	3.3	1.5	196	-9	-20	0.666	0.444
12	-	Mariners	0.305	0.378	0.305	138	4.25	4.46	6.8	3.7	1.0	178	10.6	-4.8	0.689	0.411
13	-	White Sox	0.317	0.385	0.306	132	4.71	4.05	7.0	3.8	0.7	150	-14.4	-19.2	0.667	0.398
14	-	Athletics	0.309	0.338	0.294	116	4.12	4.57	6.2	3.6	1.0	167	-0.2	-11.2	0.689	0.333

The only major disparity I see is with the Indians, who have apparently hit and pitched well enough to expect a 0.500 record, and yet are somehow 10 games below 0.500. Their true pythagorean record is 17 wins, but indications here are that they've given up quite a few more runs than expected. Are they just unlucky, or are the methods missing in this case? Part of the answer might be with the fielding estimates: bUZR rates them as only slightly below average, but THT's batted-ball based plus/minus stat (as well as straight-up DER) pegs them at second-worst in the league. Perhaps bUZR is overrating their defense?

What's up with the Athletics offense? They add Giambi, Holliday, and Nomah, and yet have a wOBA under 0.300? Beane must be blowing a gasket.

• Top hitting teams (wOBA*): Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox (holy AL East!)
  
• Top pitching teams (FIP*):Royals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners
  
• Top fielding teams (bUZR): Rays, Rangers, Mariners (maybe), Blue Jays, Tigers
• "Expected" leaders: Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers
• "Expected" Wild card: Rays

Blue Jays rank in top five in hitting, pitching, and fielding. What will they have to do to keep their lead the rest of the way?