Thursday, February 04, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Baseball physics, biology, and psychology
Alan Nathan's Terrific physics resource: http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/
How can we describe the different pitches that are thrown?
- Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, excerpts from each pitch type.
- I'd love to include some good pitchf/x stuff here, but I haven't kept up. Any nice, current primers? John Walsh had a good one early on at THT. Anything more recent?
- Hardball Times 2009 by Fast (cliff lee turnaround; good example piece)
- Hardball Times 2010 Annual by Fast (primer)
- Granillo on measuring velocity pre-radar gun:
- Walsh: pitch types, when thrown, characteristics
- Mariano Rivera animation - pitch spin, pitchf/x break, etc.
Why do breaking pitches break?
- Physics of Basball by Adair, chapters 1,2,3,4
- Alan Nathan:
Physics of baseball-type videos:
How do hitters make contact with a baseball (neuroscience-wise)? What happens when the ball hits the bat (physics)?
- Psychology of Baseball by Stadler, chapter 1,2
- Physics of Baseball by Adair, chapters 1,2,3,5,6
- Art Shapiro Curveball Illusion:
- Dan on bat vibration:
- Very nice video summarizing batting event:
- Dave :
- Cross & Nathan:
- Videos & Photos
- How to hit home runs optimally:
- Dynamics of bat-ball collision:
How do fielders track down fly balls?
- Psychology of Baseball by Stadler, chapter x.
- Physics of Baseball by Adair, chapter 7.
- Virtual reality test of the OAC vs. LOT models
Myth, or Reality
Do players go through hot & cold streaks?
- Psychology of Baseball by Stadler, chapter 5 & 6
- The Book by Tango et al, chapters 1 & 2
- Dave Cameron
How valuable are batter/pitcher matchup numbers? And other small sample size questions.
- The Book by Tango et al, chapters 1, 3
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 9-2
- Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman, chapter 4
- Regression by Studeman
- Regression by Wyers: One, Two, and Three
- Books on randomness: Fooled by Randomness by Taleb. Drunkard's Walk by Mlodinow
- Pizza Cutter on how many PA's you need to get reliable hitter or pitcher statistics.
Do clutch hitters exist?
- The Book by Tango et al, chapters 1,4
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 1-2
- Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman, chapter 6
How did steroids affect the on-field game of baseball? Did they?
- Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 9-1.
- The Baseball Economist by Bradbury, chapter 9
- Will Carroll: The Juice (not in my library)
- Tobin: Theoretical effects on HR production
- Nathan: Response to Tobin
- Steroid timeline:
- Symborski: History & PED's:
- Overview of PED's:
- Tom Tango on the juiced ball, alternative explanation for HR spike
Fielding isn't really that important, is it?
- Moneyball by Lewis, chapter 6 (the thing about Damon vs. Long)
- Brackenthebox, runs saved vs. runs allowed
Are scouts being replaced by statistics?
- Moneyball by Lewis, chapter 2 (draft board discussions)
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, "extra innings" by Perry
- The Baseball economist by Bradbury, chapter 11
- Something on the Fan Scouting Report, maybe my thing:
- Perry at BPro
Do umpire strike zones really vary all that much?
Speed guys add as much value with their legs as power guys do with their bats, right?
- Anyone have a good article on this? Ideally using something like Dan Fox's EqBRR? I think John Walsh might have done some speed stuff at some point along with his arms stuff...? I don't want to just do SB's, it's gotta be all baserunning.
Players today just aren't as good as players in the past.
- Between the Numbers by BPro (Silver's article has flawed methods, but good discussion)
- THT Annual 2008(?) by Gassko (All-time pitcher rankings, adjusted for era difficulty)
- Dan Fox: One and Two
- David Gassko on evaluating past eras: One, Two, and Three
- Error rates as an indicator
What we want most from our pitchers is consistency, right?
Are curveballs bad for young arms?
- Dun et al. 2008 in American Journal of Sports Medicine: Curveballs not more stressful than fastballs (PDF in my database)
Do teams really have a home-team advantage? If so, why?
- Stadler, 2007, Psych of Baseball, pp.174-179.
Is there such a thing as the sophomore slump? Why?
- Stadler, 2007, Psych of Baseball, pp.180
- Regression by Studeman
- Regression by Wyers: One, Two, and Three:
Why can't we just judge hitters on AVG/HR/RBI?
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 1-1
- Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman, chapter 1
- Posnanski, again
- Moneyball by Lewis, chapter 6
- BLee from RR
- Cameron: The Joy of wOBA
- Perry: Measuring offense
Why can't we just judge pitchers by W/L record, ERA, or save totals?
- Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman, chapters 2, 3, 8
- McCracken DIPS
- MGL DIPS Revisited
- Wyers on DIPS: One and Two
- Dave Cameron
- Tango et al's thread: Solving DIPS
- Kincaid on FIP: One, Two, Three
How can we assess a player's fielding?
- My series One, Two and Three.
- Fielding Bible by Dewan and James, "chapters" 2 & 3 (Everett vs. Jeter, overview of plus/minus)
- MGL's UZR series: One and Two
- Hardball Times Annual 2009, TZ article by Smith
- Smith on Total Zone
- Shane Jensen & SAFE
- THT Annual 2008 by Tango ( WOWY Jeter)
How can we best estimate a players impact on scoring runs? Winning?
- Tango: OPS isn't good enough
- Patriot: Audacity of OPS
- Run Estimators by Patriot: One, Two, and Three
- Run Estimation by Wyers: One, Two, Three, and Four.
- Baselines by Patriot
- Replacement level by Wyers
- Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 5-1 (replacement level)
- Cameron: Replacement players in real life
- Dave Cameron's Win Value Series
- My stuff on player value
- Jong's SABR 101 series
- Studes on WPA
- Tango on WPA/LI
- Patriot Talent vs. Value
- Sean Smith: Replacement level
- Tango's SABR 111 LWTS series: One Two, summarized
Judging trades and free agent signings: how much money is that player worth, dollar-wise?
- Something on Runs to Wins to $, perhaps by Tango?
- Wang in By the Numbers, prospect values
- Wang on Santana, prospect values
- Wang at draft pick values: One and Two
- Wang: Hardball times 2009 Annual, expansion of prospect values
- Diamond Dollars by Gennaro, chapters 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8
How much does home park matter? How can we deal with that problem?
- Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 8-2
- Patriot: Park factor primer
- boobs (I'm not sure I can assign an article by a guy named boobs, but hey, it's a decent overview of basic concepts)
- Tango (additive vs. multiplicative)
- Turf Grass Research
- Physics & effects
How can we evaluate managers?
- MGL in Hardball Times 2009 Annual
- Gassko in Hardball Times 2008 Annual
How should we decide end-of-season awards? Hall of fame?
- Not sure on articles (recommendations?). Discussion would likely involve context-neutral vs. context-sensitive statistics, average vs. replacement baselines, and for hall of fame, peak vs. accumulated value. This might end up being a good way to pitch the player value discussions rather than a topic in and of themselves.
- Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers - Cy Young Predictor
- Sky Andrecheck on award prediction
- David Gassko: THT 2010 Annual and This
- Sky A writer biases
When is sacrifice bunting a good idea?
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 4-2. (selected as a contrast to...)
- The Book by Tango et al, chapter 1, 9
- Red Menace:
- MGL from 2009
Can we really just use average run- or -values to determine game strategy?
- The Book by Tango et al, chapter 10 (bluffing in baseball)
- MGL on pitch selection
- Levitt on pitch selection: One and Two
- Weinstein-Gould 2009
- Any other good game theory articles, especially ones not about sac bunting?
How can we best use our relievers?
- The Book by Tango et al, chapter 8
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 2-2
What is the best way to make out a lineup?
- Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 1-3
- The Book by Tango et al, chapter 5
When should we steal bases?
Team-level analysis and front office strategy
This part could definitely use expansion, both in topics and article.
How can we best estimate team winning percentages?
Should cities build stadiums for their local sports teams?
- Baseball Between the Numbers, chapter 6-2
- Anyone know a good original economics paper on this? I think I remember reading something by Zimbalist, but haven't found it yet.
How do teams make money?
- Diamond Dollars by Gennaro, chapters 2 & 3
- Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 6-1
Do teams cycle?
- Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 8-3
- Anything else on this issue?
How do players age?
- I'm thinking about using the Bradbury article & the Birnbaum/Tango responses as a way to discuss sampling bias.
General summaries of sabermetric ideas
- Dan Fox's sabermetrics 101 post
- Grabiner Sabermetric Manifesto
- Nate Silver on why sabermetrics is fun
- Sabermetrics primer/amateur baseball by Joe Gray
- SABR 101 Links by Steve
- Williams SABR 399 course
- Fett: On the Shoulders of Giants
- Dave Cameron: Sabermetric Library
- Cameron: Embracing randomness
Other cool things