Table of Contents

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

National League Update - Through 5/26/09

Sorry for my absence. Had a baby. You know how it goes.

Also, quick announcement: I've started writing, in at least a limited capacity, for Beyond the Boxscore. Thanks to Sky for giving me a spot over there and being flexible with my schedule.

Anyway, it's time for another look at the National League!

Division Roundups


Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East
Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA RA/G* PythW XtrapW Wif500 %for90W
PHI 25 19 0.568 0 242 5.5 223 5.1 24 92 84 0.551
NYN 25 20 0.556 0.5 219 4.9 194 4.3 25 90 84 0.556
ATL 23 22 0.511 2.5 194 4.3 201 4.5 22 83 82 0.573
FLA 21 26 0.447 5.5 219 4.7 261 5.6 20 72 79 0.600
WAS 13 32 0.289 12.5 222 4.9 280 6.2 17 47 72 0.658

The Defending Champions have pulled ahead, though Pythagoras still prefers the Mets. The Braves are hanging in there, however, with the pitching staff in baseball (so far). Florida's falling, but still within striking distance...but they haven't done much since the first few weeks to warrant any concern. The Nationals are better than their record, but probably have the worst pitching/fielding combination in baseball.

Central

Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA RA/G* PythW XtrapW Wif500 %for90W
MIL 27 19 0.587 0 216 4.7 199 4.3 25 95 85 0.543
STL 27 19 0.587 0 218 4.7 186 4.0 26 95 85 0.543
CIN 25 20 0.556 1.5 203 4.5 194 4.3 23 90 84 0.556
CHN 22 22 0.500 4 193 4.4 192 4.4 22 81 81 0.576
PIT 21 25 0.457 6 207 4.5 203 4.4 23 74 79 0.595
HOU 18 26 0.409 8 194 4.4 228 5.2 19 66 77 0.610
The Brewers and Cardinals are locked in a struggle for first. Pythagoras likes the Cardinals a bit more, but the Brewers are a quality team. The Reds, Cubs, and Pirates are all pretty similar to one another according to Pythagoras, though according to my power rankings (see BtB today!), the Pirates have a slight edge over the Reds, with the Cubs ranking well below them (with the Astros) on the heels of a major losing streak. The Cubs have a ton of talent, however, so I'm not convinced we won't see them surge one of these days. The Astros could well finish in the basement by season's end.

West

Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA RA/G* PythW XtrapW Wif500 %for90W
LAN 32 15 0.681 0 273 5.8 186 4.0 32 110 90 0.504
SD 23 23 0.500 8.5 196 4.3 230 5.0 20 81 81 0.578
SF 22 23 0.489 9 174 3.9 180 4.0 22 79 81 0.581
ARI 20 26 0.435 11.5 186 4.0 212 4.6 20 70 78 0.603
COL 18 27 0.400 13 201 4.5 216 4.8 21 65 77 0.615

The Padres have been hot-hot-hot, but the Mannyless Dodgers just keep on winning. As a result, the Padres haven't gained any ground on the division leaders since my last post, even while they passed the Giants and Rockies by. If I were running the Diamondbacks, I have to say I'd be wondering what happened. Upton, Reynolds, and Felipe freaking Lopez have hit just fine, but seriously: Chris Young (0.235 wOBA), Conor Jackson (0.253), Chad Tracy (0.253), Stephen Drew (0.253), Eric Byrnes (0.281)? Yikes. The good news is that if a few of those guys get going, their defense has been decent enough that a wild card run isn't completely out of the question. But that better start happening soon.