|Record:||26-23, 0.531 (3rd, 3.5 games back) |
|Runs Scored (park adj):||218|
|Runs Allowed (park adj):||212|
|Pyth Record:||25-24, 0.513|
|Offense:||0.324 wOBA* (9th in league) |
|Pitching:||4.58 FIP* (11th in league) |
|Fielding:||+16.6 Runs (3rd in league) |
|eRS*:||219 (10th in league) |
|eRA*:||228 (7th in league) |
|Component Record:||24-25, 0.481 (7th in league) |
The sweep in Milwaukee didn't help matters, but the Reds are still in the hunt in the NL Central, thanks primarily to their fielding. The offense has been predictably below-average, but not as bad as many had feared. But pitching hasn't quite been where many had hoped. Expected runs allowed is substantially higher than actual runs allowed, indicating some luckiness on the part of the defense. ... .... Are they on the way down?
|Daniel Ray Herrera||1||0%||100%||0%||0%||0%||0.000||0.000||0.000||0.000||0.000||-0.003||0.0||0.0|
Won't surprise anyone to see Votto at the top of the list. Dizziness and "stress-related issues" aside, he's had an unreal first two months. His BABIP is just shy of 0.400, which he's unlikely to maintain for a full season, even if he keeps that 25% line drive percentage. But this team needs their best hitter.
What did surprise me, at least, was how good of a season Brandon Phillips is having. He started slow, but now he's slugging over 0.500 and even has his OBP above league-average. And his BABIP is actually a tad low vs. his career, so he might even look to improve a bit. I'm skeptical that he'll keep it going, frankly, but it's pretty neat to see him going so well.
Some other notes: Bruce has been pretty extreme in his flyball tendencies--perhaps that's part of why his BABIP is so low?.....Hanigan has outhit (and outdefended) Hernandez thus far.....Dickerson has the best walk rate on the team, but hasn't done much else.....is there any hope for Gonzalez?
Fielding and Total Value
|Daniel Ray Herrera||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.1||0.01|
Anyway, Phillips' strong start at the plate as well as continued excellence on defense has him ranking as the best position player on the team (though only by a hair). He can be a frustrating player, but he's consistently been one of the best players on the team since he arrived.....Bruce's UZR numbers were tops in the league just a few weeks ago, but he's settling down to about where I'd expect him to be--above average for a corner outfielder, but not a world-beater. I unfortunately don't have catcher fielding data working right now, but I'll look to add that later.
Overall, the fielding has been as good as anyone could have hoped thus far, and it is the primary reason that the Reds are where they are. But the Reds will have to get production from every position if they are to actually win something this year. To date, Gonzalez and Encarnacion have been sub-replacement, and one of the replacements (Rosales) has been right at replacement. The good news is that Encarnacion, at least, is capable of putting up the offensive numbers to get him on the positive side of the ledger once he returns. Not sure about Gonzalez.
|Daniel Ray Herrera||18.7||7.7||4.3||0.5||6%||0.341||1.93||3.45||0.37||0.26||0.27|
::sigh:: I think one of the reasons I've been so slow to get working on the Reds data is that I've been afraid to find something that might make me discouraged about the Reds' chances. Here's probably where it's hitting me the hardest.
Cueto's been awesome thus far. In results, at least. But his strikeout rate is actually down vs last year, his BABIP is lucky-low, and his FIP has him closer to the 4.00 ERA mark that I always put as his good-case scenario this year. Harang's FIP is actually a tad better, which is encouraging. But Arroyo and Volquez are looking pretty bad so far. Volquez's walk rate is absurdly high, which seems to be a consistent problem on this staff--and his early exit today after being on the DL with back spasms isn't making me feel better about him. And what the heck happened to Arroyo's strikeout rate?
The bullpen, at least, looks solid. The biggest problem--aside from Lincoln--is Burton. His FIP is pretty good, but his walks are very high and his HR/F is very low, which makes me less prone to dismiss his ERA. But his tRA and tRA* are in the mid-4's (RA scale), whch is probably the best rating of his work thus far. My guess is that he'll do well in AAA and will be back in the majors shortly.
The column on the right was largely motivated by the presence of Owings on the staff, and you can see what it does to his value. I think he's pitching at about his true talent level, but his bat really does make him a valuable cog in the rotation. He's kind of a unique player, but this is probably the best way to use him.
It's been a great two months to be a Reds fan. There are some chinks in the armor, but this team at least has a good shot at a 0.500 record--especially if they can get their horses back soon.
Thanks to FanGraphs for the data.