Table of Contents

Monday, June 01, 2009

Reds Stats Update: the first two months

Reds Team Data
Games Played: 49
Record: 26-23, 0.531 (3rd, 3.5 games back)
Runs Scored (park adj): 218
Runs Allowed (park adj): 212
Pyth Record: 25-24, 0.513
Offense: 0.324 wOBA* (9th in league)
Pitching: 4.58 FIP* (11th in league)
Fielding: +16.6 Runs (3rd in league)
eRS*: 219 (10th in league)
eRA*: 228 (7th in league)
Component Record: 24-25, 0.481 (7th in league)

The sweep in Milwaukee didn't help matters, but the Reds are still in the hunt in the NL Central, thanks primarily to their fielding. The offense has been predictably below-average, but not as bad as many had feared. But pitching hasn't quite been where many had hoped. Expected runs allowed is substantially higher than actual runs allowed, indicating some luckiness on the part of the defense. ... .... Are they on the way down?

Hitting
Name PA BB% K% GB% LD% FB% BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO wOBA* wRAA* wRAR*
Joey Votto 151 15% 20% 41% 25% 35% 0.398 0.357 0.464 0.627 0.270 0.457 16.0 20.4
Brandon Phillips 180 10% 11% 48% 16% 36% 0.259 0.280 0.346 0.522 0.242 0.362 4.3 9.4
Jay Bruce 197 8% 24% 37% 13% 50% 0.221 0.229 0.299 0.503 0.274 0.340 0.9 6.5
Jerry Hairston 158 7% 16% 36% 21% 43% 0.268 0.262 0.318 0.482 0.220 0.345 1.4 5.9
Ryan Hanigan 78 15% 6% 42% 23% 36% 0.328 0.323 0.416 0.400 0.077 0.368 2.3 4.5
Laynce Nix 100 8% 34% 39% 25% 36% 0.351 0.264 0.320 0.527 0.263 0.353 1.6 4.4
Ramon Hernandez 175 9% 12% 50% 20% 30% 0.306 0.286 0.353 0.390 0.104 0.327 -1.2 3.8
Chris Dickerson 113 17% 30% 45% 17% 38% 0.317 0.239 0.372 0.370 0.131 0.326 -0.9 2.4
Jonny Gomes 18 11% 19% 31% 39% 31% 0.462 0.375 0.444 0.438 0.063 0.409 1.2 1.7
Micah Owings 30 0% 37% 37% 26% 37% 0.444 0.300 0.300 0.567 0.267 0.362 0.7 1.6
Paul Janish 46 7% 18% 36% 21% 42% 0.364 0.300 0.378 0.375 0.075 0.333 -0.1 1.2
Willy Taveras 197 8% 15% 46% 18% 35% 0.304 0.266 0.325 0.335 0.069 0.306 -4.9 0.7
Mike Lincoln 1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.0 0.0
Daniel Ray Herrera 1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.0 0.0
Ramon Ramirez 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.0 0.0
Adam Rosales 104 9% 21% 38% 17% 45% 0.290 0.247 0.333 0.360 0.113 0.301 -3.1 -0.1
Homer Bailey 2 0% 50% 100% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.3 -0.3
Aaron Harang 24 4% 32% 67% 13% 20% 0.267 0.182 0.217 0.227 0.045 0.200 -2.8 -2.1
Johnny Cueto 23 5% 19% 69% 0% 31% 0.176 0.143 0.182 0.143 0.000 0.152 -3.7 -3.0
Darnell McDonald 44 7% 23% 55% 16% 29% 0.226 0.175 0.250 0.225 0.050 0.221 -4.4 -3.1
Edinson Volquez 19 0% 50% 75% 13% 13% 0.125 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.000 0.053 -4.7 -4.1
Edwin Encarnacion 77 17% 30% 52% 11% 36% 0.163 0.127 0.286 0.190 0.063 0.236 -6.6 -4.4
Bronson Arroyo 27 0% 47% 33% 22% 44% 0.200 0.105 0.105 0.158 0.053 0.110 -5.3 -4.5
Alex Gonzalez 134 5% 17% 39% 20% 40% 0.252 0.224 0.263 0.328 0.104 0.249 -10.0 -6.2

Won't surprise anyone to see Votto at the top of the list. Dizziness and "stress-related issues" aside, he's had an unreal first two months. His BABIP is just shy of 0.400, which he's unlikely to maintain for a full season, even if he keeps that 25% line drive percentage. But this team needs their best hitter.

What did surprise me, at least, was how good of a season Brandon Phillips is having. He started slow, but now he's slugging over 0.500 and even has his OBP above league-average. And his BABIP is actually a tad low vs. his career, so he might even look to improve a bit. I'm skeptical that he'll keep it going, frankly, but it's pretty neat to see him going so well.

Some other notes: Bruce has been pretty extreme in his flyball tendencies--perhaps that's part of why his BABIP is so low?.....Hanigan has outhit (and outdefended) Hernandez thus far.....Dickerson has the best walk rate on the team, but hasn't done much else.....is there any hope for Gonzalez?

Fielding and Total Value
Name wRAR uzrR uzrE uzrDP uzrA UZR PosAdj WAR
Brandon Phillips 9.4 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.9 0.6 1.67
Joey Votto 20.4 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 -2.4 -2.5 1.63
Jerry Hairston 5.9 4.6 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 4.6 0.2 1.13
Jay Bruce 6.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.5 5.3 -2.0 1.03
Laynce Nix 4.4 3.7 0.0 0.0 -0.3 3.6 -0.8 0.76
Ryan Hanigan 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.62
Micah Owings 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.43
Ramon Hernandez 3.8 -0.4 -1.2 0.1 0.0 -1.5 1.5 0.40
Chris Dickerson 2.4 1.0 -0.9 0.0 1.5 1.7 -0.7 0.35
Willy Taveras 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.32
Paul Janish 1.2 0.5 0.8 -0.4 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.28
Jonny Gomes 1.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.13
Adam Rosales -0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.1 0.11
Aaron Harang -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.01
Daniel Ray Herrera 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.01
Mike Lincoln 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.01
Ramon Ramirez 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00
Homer Bailey -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.03
Johnny Cueto -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 -0.09
Bronson Arroyo -4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 -0.21
Edinson Volquez -4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 -0.25
Alex Gonzalez -6.2 -1.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.5 -0.38
Darnell McDonald -3.1 0.8 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.39
Edwin Encarnacion -4.4 -2.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 0.3 -0.81
I'm doing something different this year and am including pitchers in the total value ranking. This includes offense and a position adjustment so that pitcher replacement hitting is the same as an average MLB pitcher. This table does not include pitching, though. But what you can see is that Owings is above-average as a pitcher hitter (surprise!), whereas Volquez and Arroyo have, so far, been below average. We'll apply those numbers to the pitcher rankings in the next table.

Anyway, Phillips' strong start at the plate as well as continued excellence on defense has him ranking as the best position player on the team (though only by a hair). He can be a frustrating player, but he's consistently been one of the best players on the team since he arrived.....Bruce's UZR numbers were tops in the league just a few weeks ago, but he's settling down to about where I'd expect him to be--above average for a corner outfielder, but not a world-beater. I unfortunately don't have catcher fielding data working right now, but I'll look to add that later.

Overall, the fielding has been as good as anyone could have hoped thus far, and it is the primary reason that the Reds are where they are. But the Reds will have to get production from every position if they are to actually win something this year. To date, Gonzalez and Encarnacion have been sub-replacement, and one of the replacements (Rosales) has been right at replacement. The good news is that Encarnacion, at least, is capable of putting up the offensive numbers to get him on the positive side of the ledger once he returns. Not sure about Gonzalez.

Pitching
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F BABIP ERA FIP WARra WARfip WARfip+WARhit
Aaron Harang 68.7 8.0 2.0 1.3 11% 0.349 4.19 3.86 1.07 1.30 1.31
Johnny Cueto 67.7 6.7 2.7 0.9 9% 0.234 2.53 4.02 2.66 1.16 1.07
Francisco Cordero 21.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0% 0.308 1.71 2.24 1.14 0.91 0.91
Micah Owings 54.7 5.8 4.5 1.2 10% 0.304 5.10 4.97 0.17 0.35 0.78
Arthur Rhodes 17.0 6.9 3.2 0.0 0% 0.205 0.53 2.77 1.45 0.53 0.53
Nick Masset 17.0 7.9 4.2 0.0 0% 0.154 1.06 2.89 0.84 0.36 0.36
Daniel Ray Herrera 18.7 7.7 4.3 0.5 6% 0.341 1.93 3.45 0.37 0.26 0.27
Jared Burton 21.3 7.2 5.1 0.4 3% 0.376 6.33 3.61 -0.24 0.25 0.25
Paul Janish 1.0 18.0 0.0 9.0 50% 0.830 45.00 11.17 -0.05 -0.04 0.24
David Weathers 17.7 6.1 5.1 0.5 5% 0.225 2.55 4.26 0.81 0.08 0.08
Edinson Volquez 48.7 8.3 5.7 1.1 14% 0.220 4.25 5.08 0.84 0.28 0.03
Carlos Fisher 4.0 6.8 6.8 0.0 0% 0.195 0.00 3.99 0.23 0.03 0.03
Ramon Ramirez 2.3 11.6 3.9 3.9 33% 0.000 7.71 8.35 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07
Homer Bailey 4.3 6.2 12.5 2.1 20% 0.178 12.46 8.76 -0.13 -0.09 -0.12
Bronson Arroyo 65.0 4.4 3.1 1.7 15% 0.267 5.12 5.61 0.64 0.05 -0.16
Mike Lincoln 17.0 3.7 7.4 2.7 20% 0.305 9.00 8.75 -0.49 -0.51 -0.50

::sigh:: I think one of the reasons I've been so slow to get working on the Reds data is that I've been afraid to find something that might make me discouraged about the Reds' chances. Here's probably where it's hitting me the hardest.

Cueto's been awesome thus far. In results, at least. But his strikeout rate is actually down vs last year, his BABIP is lucky-low, and his FIP has him closer to the 4.00 ERA mark that I always put as his good-case scenario this year. Harang's FIP is actually a tad better, which is encouraging. But Arroyo and Volquez are looking pretty bad so far. Volquez's walk rate is absurdly high, which seems to be a consistent problem on this staff--and his early exit today after being on the DL with back spasms isn't making me feel better about him. And what the heck happened to Arroyo's strikeout rate?

The bullpen, at least, looks solid. The biggest problem--aside from Lincoln--is Burton. His FIP is pretty good, but his walks are very high and his HR/F is very low, which makes me less prone to dismiss his ERA. But his tRA and tRA* are in the mid-4's (RA scale), whch is probably the best rating of his work thus far. My guess is that he'll do well in AAA and will be back in the majors shortly.

The column on the right was largely motivated by the presence of Owings on the staff, and you can see what it does to his value. I think he's pitching at about his true talent level, but his bat really does make him a valuable cog in the rotation. He's kind of a unique player, but this is probably the best way to use him.

It's been a great two months to be a Reds fan. There are some chinks in the armor, but this team at least has a good shot at a 0.500 record--especially if they can get their horses back soon.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the data.