Table of Contents

Friday, June 05, 2009

Twitter Digest - 6/5/09 - Ketchup Edition

A look at some of my recent tweets, as a way of doing a link dump. It's been a bit longer than I'd like, but oh well!

The Reds are one of 11 teams who have had an increase in attendance vs. last year, up ~500/game.

This was posted on May 18th. Now, though, they're down 167/game--essentially unchanged from last year, but on the wrong side of zero now.

The Reds have some of the lowest add-on fees in MLB, at least for lower-end tickets.

Kudos to the Reds for doing right by their fans. I'd rather have none of those fees and that the price be up front and built into the tickets, but at least the Reds aren't trying to fleece fans more so than other teams.

Someone's finally taking batted ball stat projection beyond PrOPS:

Matt Schwartz is working on a system that will let us project BABIP for hitters based on batted ball statistics. I know others have said it, but using batted ball data seems like the next logical step in our projection work. Pizza Cutter has shown that many batted ball rates are more quick to stablize than outcome stats, which makes them a great resource. I think we'll see more and more people using them in projection systems over the coming years.

Glad to see this (, but that's still pretty late in my house. It will be many years before Paige sees a playoff game.

Paige is my daughter. She's starting to watch games with me now and then, and I'd love for her to get a chance to watch some postseason games this year. But even with the improved start time of 7:57pm, it's going to be some time before she'll be able to watch a full game.

Tango's projection showdown is underway, though we only have data on the draft thus far. Should be fun to follow!

Last year, Tango's project was the Great Clutch Project, which I talked about a few times. This year, he's running a competition between the different projection systems to see which is best able to select players. The result is a sort of fantasy baseball competition among the projection systems. Once this gets underway, it should be fun to watch. I'll be pulling for CHONE, simply because thar's what I've been using. :)

Outfielder UZR aging curves--older = worse, except for error rates:

This extends into the minors as well--Rally found that mid-level minor league outfields are better defensively that MLB outfields. It's all about the young legs.

Speed score by position ( C->DH->1B->3B->RF->LF->2B/SS->CF. Neat.

Speaking of legs, I loved this little study. Nothing surprising here, but it's a nice quantification of what we already assume.

RT @
BtB_Sky: Just Posted: Feeling a Draft [Jazayerli's draft study, but with a quality metric! Great work!!]

Until this recent work by Erik, the best study done on the draft was Jazayerli's study. And it used the old version of WARP, which gives far too much credit to playing time. Now, thanks to Rally's WAR database, we're finally seeing some of Jazayerli's work re-done with a quality metric.

More good stuff from TR at BtB: Aging curves for infielders. SS's steadiness might be due to selective sampling:

Continued great work, this time with infielder aging curves. ... 3B's have a strange uptick at age 29. Real, or sampling bias? My guess is the latter. Most teams will move bad defenders off the hot corner if they're killing the team, no? When will the Reds finally admit that EdE isn't getting any better?

RT @
BtB_Sky: Just Posted: Accumulated Negative Team WAR [Reds figure prominently in this study, which seem right]

One thing I talked about last year was how sub-replacement performances played a big role in sinking the Reds of 2008. This study shows that the Reds have been among mlb leaders in negative WAR in recent them to the Brewers!

There also seems to be a connection between this study and the one I linked to yesterday by the same author about DL time. ... which isn't surprising. Teams with lots of injuries may be more likely to plug in replacement players into their roster spots...and sometimes those replacement players will underperform.

Haven't seen it linked, though might have missed it: Tango on how to use Micah Owings:

I echoed Tango's comments recently in my roundup of the Reds' first two months, but using Micah as a below-average pitcher with plus hitting is a pretty optimal use of Owings' unique set of talents. And it only works in the National League!

I may make it a habit of linking to anything I see recognizing the deserved role of basement dwellers. A great one:
Really radical in a sort of tubular way:

Great comedy from TucsonRoyal

Good roundup of recent Reds drafts. I've somehow overlooked what Zach Stewart has been doing:

I enjoy reading this kind of thing, especially when similar takes are done on other systems. It seems to me that the Reds have been doing pretty well in the recent drats, despite the apparent miss on Mesoraco (who I've steadfastly defended). I'm excited to see what they do with their pick this year. The Reds haven't had top-10 picks in back to back years since 1984-1985. The Reds chose Barry Larkin in '85 (and Pat Pacillo in '84).

Is it me, or does Jacob's Field have more trouble with animals on the field (midges, gulls, etc) than any other ballpark?

I'm sure others have written about this. But last Monday in Cleveland, while Joba Chamberlain was pitching, we had a huge flock of seagulls on the field, along with a horde of midges. The last time I saw Joba pitch against the Indians in Cleveland, he was covered in midges. And is it me, or do they bother the Yankees players more than the Indians players? Maybe that's just my inner yankee hatred biasing my perceptions.

Blog: Reds Stats Update: the first two months

I've literally spent weeks, off and on, getting my spreadsheet put together to do this report. Complete overhaul of methods, now in complete conformation with how Tango does things, with some additional things here and there. The post was more or less ignored. :) But maybe those posts are more for me than anyone else, as they help me keep up on how the Reds are doing. I'll update that more often moving forward now that everything is operational.

Updated power rankings show the Yankees and Phillies on the rise, while Rays unseat the Dodgers from the top.

I'm having a great time at BtB, with my little power rankings project getting picked up by a lot of blogs around the 'net, including a guy at Fox Sports! The biggest objections have come from Giants fans. ... And given that I'm ranking them behind the Nationals, the A's, and the Mariners, I guess that's understandable.

This is great news for the Altoona Curve, which is in desperate need of a talent infusion:

I know most people who read here don't follow the Curve much--and I'm not exactly belting out Curve content right now--but the trade for Nate McLouth netted the the Curve a new center fielder. It's a team that has really struggled so far this year, and Hernandez sounds like a guy who could bring some great energy to the team.

Dusty frustrates me with strategy, but it's true that he is very good at handling his players, young and old alike.

This aspect of Dusty's reign has continually been quite impressive to me, be it Encarnacion, Bailey, or now Votto. He's always going to frustrate me in terms of how he employs his players. But managing them on a personal level--which @ctrent points out is a big part of the job--is where Dusty excels.