Pythagorean Standings

In honor of the Reds tying the Everett-less Astros for last in the NL Central last night, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the standings based on teams' Pythagorean records, which are based on their runs scored and runs allowed per game. Here they are:

Pythagorean Standings - As of 7/18/07
National League East
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
NYN	50	0.532	0	1st
ATL	48	0.505	2.5	2nd, 2.5 out
PHI	47	0.500	3	3rd, 5 out
FLA	44	0.463	6.5	4th, 7.5 out
WAS	36	0.383	14	5th, 13 out
National League Central
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
CHN	52	0.559	0	2nd, 3.5 out
MIL	51	0.543	1.5	1st
CIN	45	0.474	8	5th, 13.5 out
HOU	42	0.442	11	5th, 13.5 out
STL	39	0.429	12	3rd, 8.5 out
PIT	39	0.415	13.5	4th, 13 out
National League West
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
SD	55	0.591	0	2nd, 1 out
LAN	52	0.547	4	1st
COL	47	0.500	8.5	4th, 5.5 out
SF	44	0.478	10.5	5th, 13.5 out
ARI	45	0.469	11.5	3rd, 4.5 out
American League East
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
BOS	56	0.596	0	1st
NYA	54	0.587	1	2nd, 7 out
TOR	47	0.500	9	3rd, 11 out
BAL	46	0.489	10	4th, 14 out
TB	35	0.376	20.5	5th, 18.5 out
American League Central
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
DET	56	0.609	0	1st
CLE	52	0.553	5	2nd, 2 out
MIN	51	0.543	6	3rd, 8 out
KC	44	0.468	13	5th, 16 out
CHA	40	0.430	16.5	4th, 14.5 out
American League West
Team	Wins	W%	Games Back	Real position
LAA	51	0.548	0	1st
OAK	49	0.516	3	3rd, 11 out
SEA	47	0.511	3.5	2nd, 1.5 out
TEX	43	0.457	8.5	4th, 14.5 out

In two cases, the NL Central and the NL West, the top two teams are reversed. Otherwise, the leaders are maintained, though some teams look closer or further from contention than they actually are. Pythagorean Wild Card leaders are currently the Dodgers over the Brewers in the National League, and the Yankees over the Indians in the American League.

There's a sense in which these standings are irrelevant, of course, as these games have already been played and the wins/losses determined. Nevertheless, all things being equal, we can probably expect teams to regress toward their Pythagorean records over the course of the rest of this season. So as a follow-up, I was interested in seeing which teams were helped and hurt the most by the reality of playing actual games (as opposed to just scoring and allowing runs). Because teams play against one another, I opted to compare actual Games Back with the Games Back according to the above Pythagorean standings.

Here are the differences (positive values indicate teams that are doing better than predicted, whereas negative values indicate teams that are doing worse than expected):

Team	ExpGB-ActualGB
ARI	7
LAN	4
STL	3.5
COL	3
CLE	3
TB	2
CHA	2
SEA	2
MIL	1.5
WAS	1
PIT	0.5
NYN	0
ATL	0
BOS	0
DET	0
LAA	0
FLA	-1
SD	-1
PHI	-2
TOR	-2
MIN	-2
HOU	-2.5
SF	-3
KC	-3
CHN	-3.5
BAL	-4
CIN	-5.5
NYA	-6
TEX	-6
OAK	-8

A combination of a an unfortunate Pythagorean division leader (San Diego) and a very fortunate Arizona team puts the D-backs seven games better in their division than you'd expect based on run differentials. Seven games! The Dodgers, Cardinals, Rockies, and Indians round out the five most lucky (or, perhaps, overperforming?) teams.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Oakland is about eight games behind where they "should be" in their division, thanks to an "overperforming" Angels ballclub and an A's team that is four games below expectations. Interestingly for the New York/Boston-centered sports media, the Yankees also show up as being much worse than run differentials predict, one game behind the Red Sox according to Pythagoras--and that's all on the Yanks, as Boston is spot-on with their predicted record. Other top "unlucky"/"underperforming" teams include the Rangers, Reds, Orioles, and Cubs.

It will be interesting to compare these predicted standings to actual standings at the end of the season. My guess is that teams will be ranked closer to their present Pythagorean standings than their present actual standings.