Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 11 May

This is my weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	22	15	0.595	0.0	205	5.54	153	4.15	24	0.544	96
STL	23	16	0.590	0.0	181	4.63	157	4.03	22	0.545	96
HOU	21	17	0.553	1.5	185	4.87	166	4.37	21	0.556	90
MIL	18	19	0.486	4.0	156	4.23	177	4.79	16	0.576	79
PIT	17	19	0.472	4.5	181	5.02	198	5.50	16	0.579	77
CIN	15	23	0.395	7.5	160	4.22	189	4.98	16	0.605	64

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

The Reds went 3-3 over the past week, thanks to improvements on both offense and defense...still on track for a sub-70 win season, though, which isn't acceptable...at this point it will take better than 0.600 ball over the rest of the season to get to the 90-win plateau, which seems unlikely to me.....St. Louis's pitching took a bit of a hit as the Cubs took over the division lead, if only due to the number of games the two teams have played...somehow, 7.5 games doesn't seem so bad.....Houston continues to outperform expectations, placing themselves now just 1.5 games out of first.....The Brew Crew continue to struggle...fwiw, Pythagoras predicts that Cinci, the Pirates, and the Brewers should all have won 16 games at this point...though the Reds have played the most games of those three teams, so they still rank last overall...

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Encarnacion	Edwin	153	12%	12%	10%	0.252	0.261	0.353	0.500	0.239	0.853	0.867	22.7	6.03	9.7
Phillips	Brandon	152	7%	18%	19%	0.312	0.284	0.329	0.511	0.227	0.840	0.798	22.6	5.82	9.2
Votto	Joey D	115	9%	18%	22%	0.299	0.286	0.348	0.552	0.266	0.900	0.929	18.4	6.43	8.5
Bako	Paul	104	10%	23%	25%	0.379	0.309	0.375	0.532	0.223	0.907	0.837	16.9	6.84	8.4
Keppinger	Jeff S	156	7%	5%	18%	0.331	0.324	0.370	0.430	0.106	0.800	0.750	20.2	5.35	7.2
Dunn	Adam	141	19%	23%	16%	0.237	0.214	0.362	0.411	0.197	0.773	0.904	18.0	5.25	6.2
Freel	Ryan	90	6%	17%	20%	0.377	0.313	0.356	0.386	0.073	0.742	0.641	10.6	4.80	3.0
Griffey Jr.	Ken	156	10%	14%	12%	0.274	0.254	0.333	0.384	0.130	0.717	0.734	16.3	4.12	2.7
Hairston	Jerry	38	3%	8%	29%	0.300	0.294	0.314	0.441	0.147	0.755	0.814	4.8	4.68	1.3
Patterson	Corey	112	7%	10%	15%	0.182	0.196	0.252	0.402	0.206	0.654	0.781	11.2	3.51	0.2
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.1
Ross	Dave	19	5%	37%	18%	0.364	0.222	0.263	0.278	0.056	0.541	0.514	1.2	2.23	-0.6
Hatteberg	Scott	53	13%	9%	22%	0.220	0.205	0.302	0.273	0.068	0.575	0.752	3.8	2.67	-1.1
Valentin	Javier	32	6%	19%	13%	0.250	0.200	0.250	0.233	0.033	0.483	0.561	1.6	1.70	-1.6
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' LWTS sum to 170 runs, which is 10 fewer than they've actually scored (after adjusting for park). Votto had a heck of a week, but hitting three home runs in a game will do that for you.....Griffey might be showing signs of life.....Keppinger's strikeout rate is crazy-low...he had a nice week as well, but having a 5-hit game will do that for you.....Dunn's walk rate has finally dropped below his strikeout rate, which might mean that he's getting more pitches to hit...if he keeps hitting 7th, though, that won't continue.....Corey Patterson now rates as almost exactly in line with a replacement hitter, despite his outstanding start to the season...I didn't expect him to hit a lot, but I expected him to hit more than this.....David Ross hasn't done much since returning from the DL, but he hasn't gotten many opportunities with Bako hitting the way he is...though Bako's 0.370+ BABIP isn't going to last forever.....and neither is Freel's, so he may not be the answer in lieu of Patterson...


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Bako	Paul	C	8.4	3.5	1.6	13.6
Votto	Joey D	1B	8.5	4.4	-1.4	11.5
Phillips	Brandon	2B	9.2	0.4	0.2	9.8
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	9.7	-3.4	0.2	6.5
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	7.2	-2.3	1.1	6.0
Dunn	Adam	LF	6.2	-1.3	-1.2	3.7
Freel	Ryan	CF	3.0	0.1	0.1	3.2
Patterson	Corey	CF	0.2	1.2	0.6	1.9
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	1.5	0.1	-0.3
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-1.1	0.3	-0.5	-1.3
Ross	Dave	C	-0.6	-1.0	0.3	-1.4
Hairston	Jerry	RF	1.3	-3.3	0.1	-1.9
Valentin	Javier	C	-1.6	-1.1	0.4	-2.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	2.7	-4.1	-1.2	-2.7

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds remain 5 runs below average among their fielders.....Quick, without looking at this table, which player has cost the Reds more runs than any other this year? If you said Griffey, you win, at least according to these numbers...I love the guy as a person and as a historical player, but I'm extremely hopeful that the rumors of a trade back to Seattle actually come to pass, as he's killing the Reds this season (and that's without accounting for his poor ability to prevent baserunner advancement, or his ability to run the bases)...a surge by him now on offense would help his trade value immensely.....

Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	42.3	11.1	5.1	0.2	4%	55%	0.281	1.06	2.65	0.543	11.2	2.37	16.9	13.2
Harang	Aaron	55.3	7.6	2.1	0.8	9%	37%	0.274	3.09	3.20	0.657	20.7	3.37	16.0	13.8
Cordero	Francisco	14.0	9.0	6.4	0.0	0%	40%	0.257	1.93	3.26	0.578	4.5	2.89	5.3	2.9
Cueto	Johnny	45.7	9.1	2.2	1.8	16%	35%	0.296	5.91	4.18	0.806	25.5	5.01	4.9	6.4
Affeldt	Jeremy	16.7	11.3	4.3	0.5	9%	60%	0.293	2.70	2.76	0.607	5.9	3.16	3.4	3.2
Lincoln	Mike	17.0	5.8	2.1	1.6	20%	56%	0.278	5.29	4.64	0.806	9.2	4.85	0.3	-0.3
Mercker	Kent	11.7	4.6	5.4	0.8	7%	35%	0.297	3.86	4.91	0.792	6.4	4.96	0.1	-0.5
Burton	Jared	16.0	12.4	2.8	1.7	16%	48%	0.372	4.50	3.54	0.823	10.4	5.83	-1.5	1.7
Weathers	David	10.3	4.4	7.0	0.0	0%	35%	0.333	3.48	4.48	0.810	7.6	6.66	-1.9	0.0
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	5.98	0.879	10.4	6.14	-1.9	-2.5
Bray	Bill P	5.0	10.8	5.4	0.0	0%	44%	0.500	5.40	2.52	0.944	5.2	9.29	-2.4	1.1
Belisle	Matt	19.3	4.2	2.3	0.9	9%	47%	0.385	7.45	4.20	0.934	16.2	7.57	-3.4	2.7
Arroyo	Bronson	40.3	8.5	3.3	1.8	18%	36%	0.354	7.14	4.72	0.928	31.7	7.07	-4.9	3.3
Fogg	Josh	22.3	6.9	3.2	2.0	16%	38%	0.320	9.27	5.35	0.923	17.7	7.14	-5.3	-2.1

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Cueto's peripherals continue to look pretty good, though that homer rate (and fly ball rate) are an ongoing concern.....I can't decide if I should be concerned about Cordero's walk rate or not, but I finally decided to bring it up...and that's all I'm going to say about it.....Last week, I noted that Lincoln's strikeout rate was trending in the wrong direction...and this week he got shelled.....welcome back to David Weathers, I guess...please don't kill the 'pen.....Don't look now, but after a strong showing last week, Arroyo's FIP has dipped below 5.0...and Belisle's FIP still looks extremely good, despite the horrendous ERA and strikeout rates...I'd hang with both of them at least a bit longer...

Expected Wins
The Reds' BsR sums up to 183, which is 6 fewer runs than they've allowed...combine that with the LWTS-estimated 170 runs scored, and you have a predicted 0.463 winning percentage...that's starting to get a bit encouraging, but it'd still be last in the division...

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.