Table of Contents

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 4 May

This is my (usually) weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

Note: I'm technically still on break, but I needed a "break" tonight and decided to run these reports...

NL Central Update
Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
STL 20 12 0.625 0.0 151 4.72 121 3.79 19 0.538 101
CHN 18 13 0.581 1.5 183 5.92 133 4.29 20 0.550 94
MIL 16 15 0.516 3.5 141 4.54 150 4.85 15 0.565 84
HOU 16 16 0.500 4.0 152 4.75 144 4.50 17 0.569 81
PIT 12 19 0.387 7.5 153 4.92 183 5.90 13 0.595 63
CIN 12 20 0.375 8.0 131 4.08 162 5.07 13 0.600 61
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since my last check-in, the Reds have gone a glorious 4-9. Not exactly the rebound I was hoping for...Pythagoras thinks they should have won one game more than they actually have, but that's little comfort...The offense continues to be anemic--the worst in the division by far to date--but the defense has fallen to second from the bottom behind only the struggling Pirates.....Houston has made a nice surge, going 9-4 to secure a 0.500 record.....Will someone please contact St. Louis and let them know that their pitching staff can't possibly be as good as it has been?

Hitting

Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Encarnacion Edwin 126 13% 13% 11% 0.271 0.275 0.373 0.532 0.257 0.905 0.893 20.9 6.96 10.6
Bako Paul 86 10% 21% 28% 0.375 0.312 0.384 0.532 0.220 0.916 0.866 14.1 6.99 7.2
Phillips Brandon 131 6% 19% 19% 0.312 0.279 0.321 0.492 0.213 0.813 0.782 18.1 5.35 6.5
Dunn Adam 120 20% 20% 17% 0.250 0.221 0.375 0.389 0.168 0.764 0.885 15.2 5.33 5.4
Votto Joey D 92 8% 20% 25% 0.333 0.294 0.348 0.506 0.212 0.854 0.863 13.1 5.73 5.2
Keppinger Jeff S 136 7% 4% 18% 0.299 0.298 0.343 0.403 0.105 0.746 0.757 15.3 4.45 3.5
Freel Ryan 66 6% 15% 22% 0.385 0.328 0.364 0.393 0.065 0.757 0.660 7.8 4.86 2.3
Patterson Corey 100 8% 7% 16% 0.175 0.200 0.263 0.433 0.233 0.696 0.832 11.6 4.10 1.9
Hairston Jerry 26 4% 4% 35% 0.348 0.333 0.360 0.417 0.084 0.777 0.775 3.4 5.31 1.2
Griffey Jr. Ken 129 10% 16% 12% 0.242 0.228 0.310 0.377 0.149 0.687 0.752 12.3 3.63 0.6
Hopper Norris S 30 7% 0% 14% 0.240 0.240 0.321 0.240 0.000 0.561 0.730 2.6 3.29 -0.1
Ross Dave 13 8% 38% 4% 0.286 0.167 0.231 0.250 0.083 0.481 0.581 0.6 1.59 -0.7
Valentin Javier 31 6% 19% 13% 0.261 0.207 0.258 0.241 0.034 0.499 0.565 1.7 1.89 -1.4
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.0
Hatteberg Scott 45 16% 9% 21% 0.147 0.135 0.267 0.189 0.054 0.456 0.766 1.8 1.46 -2.5
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' LWTS total 138 runs, which is 7 shy of their actual park-adjusted total.....Edwin's outstanding offensive surge continues, and he's now clearly been the most valuable hitter on the team over the first month+.....Continued fun for Mr. Bako--and now PrOPS is starting to like him now that he's hitting for more power...I'm not a believer yet, but it's a nice present in an otherwise rough season.....Nice rebound also from Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's strikeouts are down, but I liked the version of him that had power better.....Votto's walk rates are really starting to rebound to more normal levels.....Keppinger's season-to-date is now a bit closer to what I expected from him, but I've always been a bit pessimistic about him.....Large mismatches (in a hopeful way) between PrOPS and OPS for Corey Patterson and Scott Hatteberg.....but Griffey sure has struggled lately, eh?


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Bako Paul C 7.2 3.4 1.4 11.9
Votto Joey D 1B 5.2 2.6 -1.2 6.6
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 10.6 -4.2 0.2 6.6
Phillips Brandon 2B 6.5 -0.8 0.2 5.8
Keppinger Jeff S SS 3.5 -0.3 0.9 4.1
Patterson Corey CF 1.9 0.8 0.5 3.1
Dunn Adam LF 5.4 -1.3 -1.0 3.1
Freel Ryan CF 2.3 0.3 0.1 2.6
Hopper Norris S LF -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Castro Juan SS -2.0 1.5 0.1 -0.3
Ross Dave C -0.7 -0.5 0.2 -1.0
Hairston Jerry RF 1.2 -2.3 0.0 -1.1
Hatteberg Scott 1B -2.5 1.2 -0.5 -1.8
Valentin Javier C -1.4 -1.1 0.3 -2.1
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 0.6 -3.6 -1.0 -4.0
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Note: the initial version of this post, and unfortunately all previous posts this year, had fielding estimates that were twice as large as they should have been. Thanks to Joel for recognizing that there was a problem. That's what happens when you've got

The Reds' overall fielding numbers are at -4 runs vs. average.....Bako's been the most valuable player on the team thus far, hands down: great defense from a premium position, and we've already talked about his offense.....Votto's defense continues to score well, especially with RZR thanks to 14 plays out of zone thus far--six more than the last check-in.....The importance of defense: Patterson still rates as the 6th-most valuable position player (tied with Dunn) on the team despite his 0.696 OPS, because he's at least decent in CF...Edwin Encarnacion's been the Reds' best hitter, but his value is cut by almost 40% due to his poor fielding (I'm warming to the idea of a position change, just don't know where to)...and Griffey rates as a sub-replacement level player thus far because of his defense and almost complete lack of offense...ouch.


Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Volquez Edinson 35.3 10.7 4.6 0.3 4% 52% 0.280 1.27 2.58 0.551 9.6 2.44 13.7 11.3
Harang Aaron 48.3 7.6 2.0 0.9 10% 38% 0.267 2.98 3.31 0.672 18.6 3.46 13.3 11.5
Cueto Johnny 35.0 8.5 1.5 1.5 15% 38% 0.268 5.40 3.77 0.728 16.0 4.12 7.1 6.6
Cordero Francisco 12.0 9.0 6.0 0.0 0% 40% 0.233 2.25 3.09 0.552 3.6 2.69 4.8 2.8
Affeldt Jeremy 13.0 11.8 4.8 0.7 16% 60% 0.290 3.46 3.01 0.623 4.8 3.35 2.3 2.1
Lincoln Mike 13.7 5.9 1.3 0.7 9% 55% 0.311 3.95 3.09 0.710 5.7 3.74 1.9 2.1
Mercker Kent 11.7 4.6 5.4 0.8 7% 35% 0.297 3.86 4.88 0.792 6.4 4.96 0.0 -0.5
Bray Bill P 4.0 9.0 6.8 0.0 0% 43% 0.429 0.00 3.34 0.818 3.1 6.98 -0.9 0.5
Burton Jared 14.7 12.9 3.1 1.8 17% 45% 0.351 4.30 3.69 0.820 9.3 5.68 -1.2 1.3
Weathers David 7.3 1.2 9.9 0.0 0% 29% 0.300 4.91 6.11 0.817 5.9 7.23 -1.8 -1.3
Coffey Todd 15.3 2.9 3.5 1.8 26% 55% 0.278 6.46 5.95 0.879 10.4 6.14 -2.0 -2.5
Belisle Matt 14.3 4.4 1.3 1.3 13% 49% 0.390 6.91 4.20 0.983 13.0 8.21 -3.6 2.0
Fogg Josh 22.3 6.9 3.2 2.0 16% 38% 0.320 9.27 5.32 0.923 17.7 7.14 -5.4 -2.0
Arroyo Bronson 32.3 8.1 3.6 2.2 20% 35% 0.378 8.63 5.46 1.025 31.2 8.71 -9.9 0.0
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Volquez continues to be awesome, though it's going to be tough to maintain a 10.7 k/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 all season, even with his stuff...which means that 4.6 bb/9 has got to come down if he's going to continue to have success.....Harang's a freaking machine.....Cueto's FIP continues to look pretty darn good, despite the steady uptick in his ERA of late.....Cordero, Affeldt, and Lincoln lead the pen, with a nod to Burton despite the high home run rate...Lincoln's strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction though (7.2 k/9 two weeks ago).....Belisle's shown excellent control, but not much else...still, an improvement over Fogg.....I honestly have no idea what the hell to make of Arroyo at this point, so I'm choosing to ignore him!

The Reds' Base Runs across pitchers totals 155 runs, which is 7 fewer than they've actually given up. If we use this total, along with the estimated the Reds' LWTS-estimated 138 runs scored, that gives us an estimated winning percentage of 0.442, and an expected record of 14-18. Better, but still not good. Bleh. It hasn't quite been the team I'd hoped for. But at some point, the offense is likely to pick up at least a little bit, right? I mean, they're not an awesome offensive team by any stretch, but surely they're not THIS bad, are they?

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.