I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!
Note: I'm technically still on break, but I needed a "break" tonight and decided to run these reports...
NL Central Update
Since my last check-in, the Reds have gone a glorious 4-9. Not exactly the rebound I was hoping for...Pythagoras thinks they should have won one game more than they actually have, but that's little comfort...The offense continues to be anemic--the worst in the division by far to date--but the defense has fallen to second from the bottom behind only the struggling Pirates.....Houston has made a nice surge, going 9-4 to secure a 0.500 record.....Will someone please contact St. Louis and let them know that their pitching staff can't possibly be as good as it has been?
The Reds' LWTS total 138 runs, which is 7 shy of their actual park-adjusted total.....Edwin's outstanding offensive surge continues, and he's now clearly been the most valuable hitter on the team over the first month+.....Continued fun for Mr. Bako--and now PrOPS is starting to like him now that he's hitting for more power...I'm not a believer yet, but it's a nice present in an otherwise rough season.....Nice rebound also from Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's strikeouts are down, but I liked the version of him that had power better.....Votto's walk rates are really starting to rebound to more normal levels.....Keppinger's season-to-date is now a bit closer to what I expected from him, but I've always been a bit pessimistic about him.....Large mismatches (in a hopeful way) between PrOPS and OPS for Corey Patterson and Scott Hatteberg.....but Griffey sure has struggled lately, eh?
Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Note: the initial version of this post, and unfortunately all previous posts this year, had fielding estimates that were twice as large as they should have been. Thanks to Joel for recognizing that there was a problem. That's what happens when you've got
The Reds' overall fielding numbers are at -4 runs vs. average.....Bako's been the most valuable player on the team thus far, hands down: great defense from a premium position, and we've already talked about his offense.....Votto's defense continues to score well, especially with RZR thanks to 14 plays out of zone thus far--six more than the last check-in.....The importance of defense: Patterson still rates as the 6th-most valuable position player (tied with Dunn) on the team despite his 0.696 OPS, because he's at least decent in CF...Edwin Encarnacion's been the Reds' best hitter, but his value is cut by almost 40% due to his poor fielding (I'm warming to the idea of a position change, just don't know where to)...and Griffey rates as a sub-replacement level player thus far because of his defense and almost complete lack of offense...ouch.
Volquez continues to be awesome, though it's going to be tough to maintain a 10.7 k/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 all season, even with his stuff...which means that 4.6 bb/9 has got to come down if he's going to continue to have success.....Harang's a freaking machine.....Cueto's FIP continues to look pretty darn good, despite the steady uptick in his ERA of late.....Cordero, Affeldt, and Lincoln lead the pen, with a nod to Burton despite the high home run rate...Lincoln's strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction though (7.2 k/9 two weeks ago).....Belisle's shown excellent control, but not much else...still, an improvement over Fogg.....I honestly have no idea what the hell to make of Arroyo at this point, so I'm choosing to ignore him!
The Reds' Base Runs across pitchers totals 155 runs, which is 7 fewer than they've actually given up. If we use this total, along with the estimated the Reds' LWTS-estimated 138 runs scored, that gives us an estimated winning percentage of 0.442, and an expected record of 14-18. Better, but still not good. Bleh. It hasn't quite been the team I'd hoped for. But at some point, the offense is likely to pick up at least a little bit, right? I mean, they're not an awesome offensive team by any stretch, but surely they're not THIS bad, are they?
Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.