I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!
NL Central Update
The Reds went 3-3 over the past week, thanks to improvements on both offense and defense...still on track for a sub-70 win season, though, which isn't acceptable...at this point it will take better than 0.600 ball over the rest of the season to get to the 90-win plateau, which seems unlikely to me.....St. Louis's pitching took a bit of a hit as the Cubs took over the division lead, if only due to the number of games the two teams have played...somehow, 7.5 games doesn't seem so bad.....Houston continues to outperform expectations, placing themselves now just 1.5 games out of first.....The Brew Crew continue to struggle...fwiw, Pythagoras predicts that Cinci, the Pirates, and the Brewers should all have won 16 games at this point...though the Reds have played the most games of those three teams, so they still rank last overall...
The Reds' LWTS sum to 170 runs, which is 10 fewer than they've actually scored (after adjusting for park). Votto had a heck of a week, but hitting three home runs in a game will do that for you.....Griffey might be showing signs of life.....Keppinger's strikeout rate is crazy-low...he had a nice week as well, but having a 5-hit game will do that for you.....Dunn's walk rate has finally dropped below his strikeout rate, which might mean that he's getting more pitches to hit...if he keeps hitting 7th, though, that won't continue.....Corey Patterson now rates as almost exactly in line with a replacement hitter, despite his outstanding start to the season...I didn't expect him to hit a lot, but I expected him to hit more than this.....David Ross hasn't done much since returning from the DL, but he hasn't gotten many opportunities with Bako hitting the way he is...though Bako's 0.370+ BABIP isn't going to last forever.....and neither is Freel's, so he may not be the answer in lieu of Patterson...
Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
The Reds remain 5 runs below average among their fielders.....Quick, without looking at this table, which player has cost the Reds more runs than any other this year? If you said Griffey, you win, at least according to these numbers...I love the guy as a person and as a historical player, but I'm extremely hopeful that the rumors of a trade back to Seattle actually come to pass, as he's killing the Reds this season (and that's without accounting for his poor ability to prevent baserunner advancement, or his ability to run the bases)...a surge by him now on offense would help his trade value immensely.....
Cueto's peripherals continue to look pretty good, though that homer rate (and fly ball rate) are an ongoing concern.....I can't decide if I should be concerned about Cordero's walk rate or not, but I finally decided to bring it up...and that's all I'm going to say about it.....Last week, I noted that Lincoln's strikeout rate was trending in the wrong direction...and this week he got shelled.....welcome back to David Weathers, I guess...please don't kill the 'pen.....Don't look now, but after a strong showing last week, Arroyo's FIP has dipped below 5.0...and Belisle's FIP still looks extremely good, despite the horrendous ERA and strikeout rates...I'd hang with both of them at least a bit longer...
The Reds' BsR sums up to 183, which is 6 fewer runs than they've allowed...combine that with the LWTS-estimated 170 runs scored, and you have a predicted 0.463 winning percentage...that's starting to get a bit encouraging, but it'd still be last in the division...
Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.