Tuesday Night Reds Monitor - Through Monday, 23 June

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	48	28	0.632	0.0	406	5.34	297	3.91	49	0.488	102
STL	44	33	0.571	4.5	362	4.70	338	4.39	41	0.541	93
MIL	42	34	0.553	6.0	344	4.52	343	4.51	38	0.558	90
PIT	36	40	0.474	12.0	374	4.92	418	5.50	34	0.628	77
HOU	35	41	0.461	13.0	332	4.37	369	4.86	34	0.640	75
CIN	35	42	0.455	13.5	328	4.26	370	4.81	34	0.647	74

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

...does it really matter at this point? The Reds are in last place, 13.5 out, went 2-4 over the past week, are last in the division in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed (almost a full run more per game than the Cubs).....Division rankings haven't changed, though Milwaukee went on a 6-1 surge to close a bit, while the Cubs gained a game on the Cards...The Cubs continue to be on pace for 100+ wins...

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Dunn	Adam	294	21%	26%	16%	0.235	0.219	0.384	0.491	0.272	0.875	1.017	44.4	6.44	18.9
Votto	Joey D	272	9%	18%	26%	0.324	0.293	0.357	0.500	0.207	0.857	0.896	40.9	6.14	16.3
Phillips	Brandon	321	7%	16%	17%	0.286	0.271	0.321	0.488	0.217	0.809	0.802	44.1	5.31	13.4
Hairston	Jerry	142	6%	14%	31%	0.390	0.336	0.382	0.480	0.144	0.862	0.751	24.4	7.11	11.7
Encarnacion	Edwin	290	10%	17%	14%	0.254	0.241	0.324	0.447	0.206	0.771	0.808	36.8	4.93	9.2
Griffey Jr.	Ken	296	15%	15%	17%	0.269	0.249	0.358	0.402	0.153	0.760	0.823	34.3	4.74	7.5
Keppinger	Jeff S	167	7%	5%	19%	0.324	0.322	0.370	0.441	0.119	0.811	0.781	22.2	5.51	7.3
Bruce	Jay A	114	11%	22%	25%	0.366	0.300	0.386	0.470	0.170	0.856	0.875	16.8	6.30	6.9
Freel	Ryan	143	6%	13%	20%	0.342	0.298	0.340	0.359	0.061	0.699	0.666	15.1	4.18	1.8
Cabrera	Jolbert	20	10%	20%	23%	0.500	0.389	0.450	0.444	0.055	0.894	0.678	3.0	7.27	1.5
Bako	Paul	195	10%	26%	20%	0.288	0.230	0.306	0.385	0.155	0.691	0.764	19.7	3.81	0.6
Ross	Dave	89	16%	20%	19%	0.296	0.233	0.356	0.315	0.082	0.671	0.733	8.6	3.90	0.5
Hopper	Norris S	42	7%	5%	21%	0.265	0.250	0.325	0.250	0.000	0.575	0.760	3.7	3.30	-0.4
Phillips	Andy A	23	9%	17%	18%	0.176	0.143	0.217	0.190	0.047	0.407	0.633	0.7	0.97	-1.9
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.1
Valentin	Javier	59	7%	15%	9%	0.261	0.222	0.271	0.278	0.056	0.549	0.557	4.0	2.42	-2.1
Hatteberg	Scott	61	11%	11%	19%	0.191	0.173	0.262	0.231	0.058	0.493	0.701	2.9	1.72	-3.4
Janish	Paul	67	7%	22%	23%	0.239	0.180	0.254	0.197	0.017	0.451	0.640	2.4	1.27	-4.6
Patterson	Corey	192	4%	11%	14%	0.182	0.189	0.222	0.344	0.155	0.566	0.723	14.5	2.54	-6.6

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Reds' team linear weights total 338, which is 10 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn's slumping, but continues to have been the most productive offensive player on the team.....Votto had a heck of a week, though, and almost closed the gap.....Jay Bruce is slumping a bit too, and with the small sample sizes saw his OPS fall from a Bruceian 0.998 to a fairly mundane 0.856.....Paul Bako has now officially fallen to below 1 run above replacement on offense, and is actually being out-"hit" by David Ross on a rate basis, but as you'll see his defense keeps him an above-replacement level contributers for now.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Votto	Joey D	1B	16.3	7.6	-3.6	20.4
Phillips	Brandon	2B	13.4	6.2	0.4	20.1
Dunn	Adam	LF	18.9	-2.1	-2.5	14.4
Hairston	Jerry	SS	11.7	-2.4	0.7	9.9
Bruce	Jay A	RF	6.9	0.4	-0.2	7.2
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	9.2	-3.0	0.4	6.6
Bako	Paul	C	0.6	1.9	3.1	5.6
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	7.3	-3.5	1.2	5.0
Cabrera	Jolbert	SS	1.5	1.9	0.2	3.5
Freel	Ryan	CF	1.8	-1.4	0.2	0.6
Ross	Dave	C	0.5	-2.1	1.3	-0.4
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	7.5	-5.7	-2.2	-0.4
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.1	1.5	0.1	-0.5
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	-0.6
Phillips	Andy A	3B	-1.9	0.4	0.0	-1.5
Patterson	Corey	CF	-6.6	3.5	1.0	-2.2
Valentin	Javier	C	-2.1	-1.2	0.3	-3.0
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-3.4	0.4	-0.5	-3.6
Janish	Paul	SS	-4.6	-1.2	0.6	-5.2

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' total fielding numbers sum to 1 run above average...I'm just as surprised by that as you, and THT's team stats still have the Reds a tick below average on defense...but Brandon Phillips, Votto, and Corey Patterson have all been pretty darn good in the field.....Votto's hot offense and surprisingly-good fielding brings him to the top of the list, followed closely by Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's slump with the stick draws him down to a fairly distant third.....By my estimates, the Reds currently have nine players who have contributed below replacement-level performances so far this season...that includes Ken Griffey Jr, who has hit 0.261/0.363/0.426 (an 0.789 OPS) in 553 AB's since June 24th of last year (thanks, fangraphs)...I love the guy, love his career, and think he is one of the best of his generation and a shoe-in hall of famer...but he has absolutely no business being a presumptive All-Star starting outfielder this year...

Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	95.0	10.4	4.3	0.3	5%	51%	0.275	1.71	2.65	0.560	27.4	2.59	32.3	27.7
Cordero	Francisco	32.7	9.6	5.0	0.8	10%	41%	0.225	2.76	3.76	0.596	11.5	3.18	9.7	3.2
Harang	Aaron	106.0	7.7	2.0	1.3	11%	33%	0.322	4.33	3.60	0.794	57.8	4.91	8.8	19.7
Cueto	Johnny	91.7	7.9	3.3	1.8	17%	37%	0.280	5.01	4.76	0.803	52.5	5.15	5.1	5.2
Burton	Jared	39.3	9.4	3.0	0.7	8%	52%	0.306	2.52	2.87	0.655	16.1	3.69	4.4	6.3
Bray	Bill P	22.7	8.3	4.8	0.4	5%	37%	0.292	2.38	3.24	0.660	9.6	3.79	2.3	2.7
Thompson	Daryl M	5.0	3.6	7.2	0.0	0%	31%	0.250	0.00	4.58	0.642	2.0	3.53	1.2	0.4
Lincoln	Mike	34.7	7.3	2.3	1.8	30%	60%	0.255	4.93	4.72	0.756	17.3	4.49	0.8	-1.6
Mercker	Kent	13.7	3.9	5.3	0.7	7%	40%	0.279	3.29	4.72	0.750	6.6	4.35	0.5	-0.6
Majewski	Gary W	7.7	5.8	3.5	1.2	12%	48%	0.333	4.70	4.78	0.830	4.6	5.37	-0.6	-0.4
Herrera	Daniel R.	3.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	94%	56%	0.375	9.00	5.28	0.972	2.5	7.63	-1.0	-0.3
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	6.03	0.879	10.4	6.14	-2.5	-2.9
Affeldt	Jeremy	36.0	9.8	3.5	1.5	21%	55%	0.333	4.50	3.96	0.807	21.5	5.37	-2.7	1.4
Weathers	David	28.0	5.8	4.5	1.6	18%	42%	0.273	3.86	5.43	0.822	17.7	5.68	-3.1	-3.5
Arroyo	Bronson	86.0	8.5	3.3	1.5	16%	37%	0.342	5.55	4.25	0.855	57.2	5.99	-3.2	9.7
Belisle	Matt	29.7	4.2	1.8	1.2	14%	51%	0.364	7.28	4.25	0.914	23.5	7.13	-4.9	3.4
Bailey	Homer	12.3	2.2	7.3	4.4	30%	37%	0.227	8.76	10.74	1.138	13.9	10.17	-6.2	-7.5
Fogg	Josh	28.3	5.4	3.2	2.2	17%	38%	0.317	9.85	6.00	0.964	24.1	7.67	-9.4	-5.3

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

It's amazing to see the dropoff between Volquez's performance and the rest of the pitching staff.....Harang has struggled of late, but his FIP remains very strong and among the league leaders.....Arroyo has shown a similar difference between his ERA and FIP nearly all season, though today's outing (which is not included in these stats) won't help his cause with either statistic.....Cueto's two recent outings have his FIP back under 5...I hope the kid goes on a decent little tear here.

Overall, the Reds Base Runs sum to 376 runs, which is 6 more than they've actually allowed. Combined with their lwts-estimated 338 runs scored in the Pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.447, which indicates that the Reds are probably about a game "lucky" thus far in the standings.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.