Total Value Estimates - Through 5 September, 2008

I've updated the total value estimates for 2008 players. You can read about all the methods in this series of posts.

Features:

• Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
  
• Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
• Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above replacement).
• League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
  
• Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).

Click here to access the spreadsheet

Note: I've heard a report that someone was getting server errors trying to access this spreadsheet. If you do, please let me know, because I haven't been able to replicate it and want to know how widespread the issue is.

A huge thanks to Joel Luckhaupt, who used his visual basic wizardly to automate the population of my makeshift spreadsheets. Thanks also to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data.

Current MVP Rankings
American League

Last	First	Lg	Team	Pos	PA	OPS	R/G	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Sizemore	Grady	AL	CLE	CF	639	0.908	7.7	62.5	10.9	3.2	76.6
Rodriguez	Alex	AL	NYA	3B	524	0.997	8.4	57.9	4.4	0.7	63.0
Pedroia	Dustin L	AL	BOS	2B	638	0.883	6.6	47.2	5.4	0.8	53.5
Granderson	Curtis	AL	DET	CF	534	0.898	7.3	47.3	2.2	2.8	52.3
Roberts	Brian	AL	BAL	2B	626	0.838	6.6	46.3	3.1	0.8	50.2
Mauer	Joe	AL	MIN	C	539	0.858	6.6	36.7	6.0	7.2	49.9
Hamilton	Josh H	AL	TEX	CF	615	0.903	6.6	45.3	3.0	0.9	49.2
Beltre	Adrian	AL	SEA	3B	587	0.780	5.2	25.9	22.3	0.8	49.0
Youkilis	Kevin E	AL	BOS	1B	538	0.947	7.1	45.4	4.5	-5.4	44.6
Markakis	Nick	AL	BAL	RF	620	0.897	7.3	52.5	-3.5	-5.1	44.0

Sizemore still has a commanding lead, though A-Rod is holding his own despite 100 fewer PA's. If you value rate stats, you probably go with A-Rod. But if you count playing time, as replacement-level statistics do, Sizemore is the clear choice. Similar offensive contributions, and excellent defense at a premium position.

National League

Last	First	Lg	Team	Pos	PA	OPS	R/G	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Pujols	Albert	NL	STL	1B	558	1.110	10.7	78.2	15.7	-6.6	87.3
Berkman	Lance	NL	HOU	1B	584	1.027	9.1	68.0	14.6	-7.1	75.5
Jones	Chipper	NL	ATL	3B	480	1.021	9.4	56.0	10.7	0.6	67.4
Utley	Chase	NL	PHI	2B	620	0.925	7.1	48.6	17.5	0.8	66.8
Ramirez	Hanley	NL	FLA	SS	626	0.926	7.9	59.2	1.1	4.9	65.2
Beltran	Carlos	NL	NYN	CF	614	0.851	6.5	40.3	13.1	3.4	56.8
Holliday	Matt T	NL	COL	LF	562	0.974	7.9	51.9	9.2	-4.6	56.6
Wright	David A	NL	NYN	3B	641	0.897	7.0	48.2	4.7	0.9	53.7
Giles	Brian	NL	SD	RF	567	0.839	6.8	40.1	16.9	-4.6	52.4
Braun	Ryan J	NL	MIL	LF	570	0.934	7.0	45.2	7.9	-4.7	48.4

Chipper's really fallen behind, but that's due not so much to him taling off (though he has a bit) as Albert Pujols going all ridiculous on us. Berkman's still hanging in there, but Albert continues to be the standard against which all hitters are judged. Doesn't hurt that he's such a good defensive first basemen.

Current Cy Young Rankings
American League

Last	First	Lg	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Lee	Cliff	AL	CLE	194.3	2.32	2.60	0.601	2.82	68.7	65.9
Halladay	Roy	AL	TOR	218.0	2.64	2.98	0.621	3.04	71.8	64.8
Santana	Ervin R	AL	LAA	192.0	3.23	3.23	0.638	3.44	54.7	51.7
Burnett	A.J.	AL	TOR	193.3	4.47	3.52	0.740	4.52	31.8	45.7
Vazquez	Javier	AL	CHA	182.7	4.34	3.41	0.747	4.43	31.9	45.5
Mussina	Mike	AL	NYA	172.3	3.39	3.34	0.729	4.12	36.0	44.3
Danks	John W	AL	CHA	164.7	3.44	3.33	0.692	3.78	40.7	42.5
Pettitte	Andy	AL	NYA	188.3	4.49	3.68	0.751	4.60	29.4	41.3
Beckett	Josh	AL	BOS	154.3	4.20	3.32	0.706	3.88	36.3	40.0
Lester	Jon T	AL	BOS	181.7	3.37	3.72	0.706	3.84	43.6	39.1

I opted to sort this time based on FIP-Runs, which is a defense-independent indicator of pitching performance. But, at least in the AL, it doesn't really matter. This is a two-horse race between Halliday and Lee, as it has been most of the year. Lee's rate stats are a bit more impressive, while Halliday has continued his typical workload and thrown more innings.

National League

Last	First	Lg	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Lincecum	Tim	NL	SF	190.3	2.60	2.77	0.610	3.06	57.3	56.0
Haren	Dan	NL	ARI	190.0	3.41	3.00	0.664	3.41	49.9	51.1
Webb	Brandon	NL	ARI	192.0	3.19	3.13	0.628	3.10	56.9	49.0
Lowe	Derek	NL	LAN	188.7	3.53	3.28	0.652	3.43	49.0	44.8
Sheets	Ben	NL	MIL	179.0	2.97	3.17	0.660	3.45	46.2	44.7
Hamels	Cole	NL	PHI	203.0	3.01	3.47	0.634	3.18	58.4	44.1
Billingsley	Chad R	NL	LAN	175.7	3.13	3.22	0.672	3.89	36.8	43.0
Dempster	Ryan	NL	CHN	183.7	2.99	3.38	0.630	3.24	51.6	41.7
Volquez	Edinson	NL	CIN	170.0	3.12	3.33	0.669	3.77	37.8	39.5
Santana	Johan	NL	NYN	196.0	2.71	3.77	0.660	3.69	45.3	35.9

You can make a strong argument that the current Cy Young leader in the National League is the guy who was taken two slots after Drew Stubbs in the 2006 draft. I know, coulda/shoulda/woulda. But that pick is probably never going to stop bothering me...