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Tuesday, June 06, 2006

So it's Stubbs

So the Reds took University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs in the first round today. I'm going to just have to trust the Reds scouting department with this one. Good power and speed, plus great defense are good things. And high strikeout rates aren't a death-wish to prospects, but they can be problem if the player's good numbers were based on dominating some of the lesser college-level pitching talent while the strikeouts come against the better talent. Nevertheless, Stubbs does walk at a good clip (41 bb vs. 60 k in 243 AB's); if he can maintain a 2bb:3k ratio throughout this development, he could be in the mix for the Dunn/Kearns/Bruce/Stubbs outfield a few years down the road. It's hard to get too upset about the Reds taking a college hitter, as they are easily the most reliable selections in the amateur draft.

But what I'm surprised about is that University of Washington's right-hander Tim Lincecum was available and we didn't take him. Many forecast him as going in the first 5 picks (at least before #1 overall Luke Hochevar entered the picture this past week), but Tim ultimately fell to the Giants at #10. Lincecum has been extremely dominant for the Huskies this year, is the Pac-10 career strikeout leader, and many draft reports seem to think he could pitch with success in the majors within a year or two. I had this vision of both he and Homer Bailey hitting the majors at about the same time and leading our rotation for years to come... :) The major fault I've seen on him is his size, which at 5'11", 170 lbs isn't terribly large for a would-be starter. Of course, scouts who like him compare him to Tim Hudson, who's had a pretty darn good career despite being of roughly the same physique.

As of right now, in the 9th round, the Reds draft looks like this:

1. Drew Stubbs, RHB OF, U Texas Austin
2. Sean Watson, RHP, U Tennessee
3. Christopher Valaika, RHB SS, UC Santa Barbera
4. Justin Reed, LHB CF, Hillcrest Christian HS
5. Joshua Ravin, RHP, Chatworth HS
6. Jordan Smith, RHP, Southern Nevada Community College
7. Justin Turner, RHB 2B, Call St. Fullerton
8. Travis Webb, LHP, Wasthington St. U
9. Jeremy Burchett, RHP, UC Berkeley

So that's 5 pitchers, 4 hitters in the first 9 rounds. 6 college, 2 high school, 1 community college. Pretty good spread of talent, also looks like a fairly "safe" draft. I'll take some time to investigate each of our selections from the first 10 rounds later on (I'm liking Watson at #2 based on initial impressions...). Hopefully we can get 'em all to sign (Justin Reed has a football scholarship to U Miss--maybe we can get Adam Dunn to give him a ring and convince him to go full-time baseball!). And let's hope that a good proportion of them will arrive in the big leagues over the next five years.