Monday, March 07, 2016

2016 Reds Composite Prospect Ranking

This is my annual summary of some selected prospect rankings (2015 rankings here).  The short of the methods: players earn "points" for being ranked on top prospect lists from around the internets, and earn more points based on their ranking.  The longest list this year was FanGraphs' Top-34, and so a #1 ranking on any list is worth 34 points.  Input the lists, total up each player's points, and you get a composite ranking!  Tiebreaker is the number of lists as player was ranked on.

The lists I used were:
MLB.com's pipeline list is a new addition.  I'm not particularly enamored with it, but MLB seems to be putting more and more into its prospect coverage, so it seems appropriate to include them.  Notably absent is Keith Law, but I only found his top 10, while his top-20 is behind the paywall.  I just decided to skip it.

Now, on to the rankings!
Rank Player Total Pts # Lists Avg Rank Change
1 Robert Stephenson 202 6 1.3 0
2 Jesse Winker 196 6 2.3 0
3 Cody Reed 191 6 3.2 Trade
4 Amir Garrett 186 6 4.0 +6
5 Tyler Stephenson 168 6 7.0 1st Rnd
6 Nick Travieso 165 6 7.5 -1
6 Alex Blandino 165 6 7.5 +2
8 Keury Mella 161 6 8.2 Trade
9 Jose Peraza 149 5 5.2 Trade
10 Tyler Mahle 115 5 12.0 +12
11 Sal Romano 102 5 14.6 +3
12 Phillip Ervin 91 4 12.3 -1
13 Rookie Davis 85 4 13.8 Trade
14 Scott Schebler 82 4 14.5 Trade
14 John Lamb 82 4 14.5 Trade
16 Antonio Santillan 79 5 19.2 2nd Rnd
17 Eric Jagielo 78 4 15.5 Trade
18 Yorman Rodriguez 64 3 13.7 -11
19 Blake Trahan 62 3 14.3 3rd Rnd
20 Taylor Sparks 41 3 21.3 -2
21 Zack Weiss 40 3 21.7 ---
22 Gavin LaValley 36 3 23.0 -7
23 Kyle Waldrop 35 3 23.3 -10
24 Aristides Aquino 33 3 24.0 -13
25 Jon Moscot 32 3 24.3 -5
26 Wyatt Strahan 31 2 19.5 -3
27 Nick Howard 29 2 20.5 -23
28 Ian Kahaloa 26 2 22.0 5th Rnd
29 Jake Cave 23 2 23.5 Rule 5
30 Tanner Rainey 16 2 27.0 2nd Rnd
31 Jose Lopez 16 1 19.0 ---
32 Jonathon Crawford 11 2 29.5 -15
33 Calten Daal 9 2 30.5 -5
34 Jackson Stephens 6 1 29.0 -3
35 Brandon Dixon 3 1 32.0 Trade
Not surprisingly, Robert Stephenson (who makes me nervous) and Jesse Winker (who I want to love) remain at the top of the leaderboard.  Newcomer Cody Reed clocks in at #3, which is a nice showing for a guy who only starting to raise eyebrows when he was arguably the big prize in last summer's Johnny Cueto trade.  

Big Risers include Amir Garrett, who is coming off an outstanding season after finally committing to baseball, and Tyler Mahle, who was quietly brilliant for Dayton last year.  Fallers include perpetual underachiever Yorman Rodriguez, who seems low on the Reds' depth chart despite being out of options; Aristides Aquino, who struggled with injuries and underperformance in his first year at A-ball; and, most notably, the plummeting, flaming, catastrophic career of former 1st-round selection Nick Howard, who has yet to show any indication that he knows where the strike zone is.  

The Reds have added a lot of talent over the past calendar year.  I really like a lot of the guys who came over at the deadline last summer, and that shows up on this list (with Brandon Finnegan missing out because he has lost rookie eligibility).  I'm not particularly excited about a lot of the talent they've added this offseason, but they certainly have added some depth.  If at least a few of those go on to be useful pieces, then the offseason has to be seen as a passable success.

Quickly, here are those players who appeared last season, but are no longer on this year's list:
  • #3 Michael Lorezen (graduated)
  • #6 Raisel Iglesias (graduated)
  • #8 Anthony DeSclafani (graduated)
  • #16 Seth Mejias-Brean (not sure why...ok season, but getting old)
  • #19 Tucker Barnhart (graduated)
  • #20 Junior Arias (minor league free agent, left for Giants - TY to Doug Gray)
  • #24 Daniel Corcino (claimed off waivers)
  • #25 Chad Wallach (still around, rough season)
  • #26 Ismael Guillon (DFA'd, did not play)
  • #27 David Holmberg (graduated)
  • #29 Jose Ortiz (released)
  • #30 Jeremy Kivel (still around, awful control in 2015)
  • #31 Daniel Wright (still around, good peripherals last year)
  • #33 Sebastian Elizalde (still around, did not take a step forward)
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