Went to a Curve game

As you've probably surmised from the minimal activity here on the blog, the new job has been pretty all-consuming since the semester started. The good news is that I'm having a great time with it. But the bad news, for the blog at least, is that by the time I get home and spend some time with my kid before she goes to bed, my brain is pretty much tapped out. Add to that a fair bit of work at home, and the result is that during my rare bits of free time I've been much more inclined to watch some TV or go shoot things with a sniper rifle than I have to sit down and write or do number crunching. The fact that the Reds stink doesn't help matters, of course.

I did, however, get to go to an Altoona Curve game last Sunday night. It was a really fantastic experience. Extremely attractive small ballpark with a lot of charm, nice people, and very family/kid friendly. We sat in the grandstand section for $7/ticket, and they were outstanding seats. We also spent a fair bit of time at the row of sheltered picnic tables below the grandstands, which still have a nice view of the action. And, of course, we had to go visit the "bouncy house" things down the right field foul line. I'll (probably) post more pictures later, but here's my daughter at the game:
She didn't catch a foul ball, but we like to think that she was close to getting one in the 6th inning.

A few other fun notes from the game:

• Miguel Perez is catching for the Curve, so that's apparently where he ended up this year. He was hitting 9th, but went 2 for 4 and made the defensive play of the night on a sliding catch of a pop fly.
• Aaron Harang's younger brother Daryl threw for the Fisher Cats in the 8th and struck out the only batter he faced. I guess they do have LOOGY's in AA.
• The Curve's starting pitcher was Dan Reichert, who threw 153 innings for the Royals in 2000 as a 23-year old. He's 32 now, though, didn't crack 87 mph on the stadium gun, and struggled badly with his command. Apparently this is his first year back pitching in the minor league system since 2005, but he was pitching in independent ball in 2007. You have to hand it to him for keeping at it...but the writing is obviously on the wall. The minor leagues are a place of hope and dreams, but they're also where those dreams finally die.
  

Finally, this guy absolutely scared the crap out of my kid.
First time he walked by she jolted so hard she sent a spoon full of my wife's Dippin' Dots flying. Is it bad that we found our daughter's terror the funniest part of the evening? Can't wait for her to meet Rosie Red...

The 2008 Fans' Scouting Report

Tom Tango has opened polling once again for the Fans' Scouting Report. Here's his pitch.

This project essentially polls baseball fans and asks them to submit basic scouting information on the fielding of players that they saw in action more than 10 times this season.

The result is a composite indication of a fielder's individual skills. Historically, these data correlate very well to the most sophisticated fielding measures available, such as UZR and PMR--better, in fact, than some other statistics such as Baseball Prospectus's FAA statistics. Furthermore, they provide unique insights into the skills that govern a fielder's performance, which makes them useful for answering questions that you simply cannot answer with more traditional fielding stats (ZR, PMR, etc). One of my favorite applications is asking what position a player should be playing, given his particular skillset.

Finally, for those of you that dislike or distrust some of the modern fielding statistics in favor of what your own eyes are telling you, this has to be an appealing project. Your own ratings of a fielder's skills, combined with those of your peers, are the basis for this statistic. It's invaluable data, and we need your assistance in collecting it.

Therefore, I'd like to ask each of you who has watched more than 10 Reds games this year to head over to Tom Tango's site and rate some Reds players. The more participation we have, the more reliable our data on Reds' players will be.

Three basic guidelines:

• Do not consider a player's position when rating his skills. Rate him against all other players.
• If you're not sure about a particular skill, leave it as "not sure." That's fine!
  
• Avoid looking at any fielding numbers. We're trying to get a measure that is independent of what other fielding statistics are telling us, and one that is based purely on what you have personally witnessed a player doing on the field.
  

Thanks,
Justin

Brief reflections on the game

Saw tonight's game. Yesterday was crazy-busy, so I missed Volquez's gem. And tomorrow is radio-only here in PA, so I won't see it either. But it was "good" to see the Reds again...been a long while.

Highlights:

• Jay Bruce jacking an 0-2 pitch over the wall.
• Affeldt going crazy-wild on Freddie Sanchez, and then getting him to fly out on a fastball down the middle.
  
• The Pittsburgh announcers, while not particularly exciting, were a refreshing change. They talked up their young players, and had a small featurette on improvements in hitting mechanic instruction over the past 30 years that I found interesting.
  
• The uniforms still look nice and stuff. PNC's a darn pretty park too.
• It was a quick game.
  

Lowlights:

• I kept score, which was interesting because it reinforced how few swings and misses Fogg induced on the evening. I counted two. Not strikeouts--swings and misses on any pitch. I guess 84 mph fastballs just don't cut it. Who knew?
  
• Encarnacion seeming to give up on that catchable flare over his head, and then Fogg not covering third. Maybe Keppinger called him off or something, but I'd sure like to see them pull a Braun and put Eddie in left field next year. In fairness, Edwin did make a helluva throw on Michaels' grounder in the 8th.
  
• I see the lineups every day when they're posted. But it really is something to see a game unfold with a starting lineup featuring Jolbert Cabrera, Andy Phillips, Ryan Hanigan, and Corey Patterson. The Pirates' 2-run lead felt freaking insurmountable, which is ridiculous.

Ah, well. As I said, it was nice to have a chance to see the team play again. One more series vs. the Pirates left, and hopefully we'll also see some nationally-televised games vs. the Cubs or something. I know I'll never really quit the Reds, even if I do start paying more attention to other teams.

Total Value Estimates - Through 12 August 2008

I've updated the total value estimates for 2008 players. You can read about all the methods in this series of posts.

Features:

• Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
  
• Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
• Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above repalcement).
• League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
  
• Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).

Click here to access the spreadsheet

Note: I've heard occasional reports of people getting server errors trying to access this spreadsheet. If you do, please let me know, because I haven't been able to replicate it and want to know how widespread the issue is.

A huge thanks to Joel Luckhaupt, who used his visual basic wizardly to automate the population of my makeshift spreadsheets. Thanks also to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data.


Current MVP Leaders:
American League

Last	First	Lg	Team	Pos	PA	OPS	R/G	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Sizemore	Grady	AL	CLE	CF	537	0.901	7.5	50.3	9.8	2.7	62.8
Rodriguez	Alex	AL	NYA	3B	430	0.998	8.5	48.9	-1.2	0.6	48.3
Roberts	Brian	AL	BAL	2B	527	0.855	6.8	41.1	3.6	0.7	45.4
Hamilton	Josh H	AL	TEX	CF	529	0.923	6.8	42.1	-1.9	0.5	40.7
Longoria	Evan	AL	TB	3B	435	0.885	6.6	32.7	6.1	0.7	39.5
Markakis	Nick	AL	BAL	RF	527	0.898	7.2	44.5	-0.8	-4.3	39.4
Kinsler	Ian M	AL	TEX	2B	561	0.890	6.8	44.1	-7.1	0.7	37.8
Granderson	Curtis	AL	DET	CF	431	0.859	6.6	32.3	2.6	2.3	37.2
Youkilis	Kevin E	AL	BOS	1B	471	0.948	7.1	39.8	2.3	-5.0	37.1
Pedroia	Dustin L	AL	BOS	2B	540	0.821	5.7	29.5	5.7	0.7	35.9

Sizemore continues to run away with it. Lots of PA's hitting leadoff, the best R/G of anyone not named A-Rod, and outstanding fielding performance at a premium position. If the gap remains this big by the end of the season, I don't see how he can't be the hands-down choice for MVP--even on a losing ballclub.

National League

Last	First	Lg	Team	Pos	PA	OPS	R/G	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Pujols	Albert	NL	STL	1B	471	1.066	9.9	60.1	13.3	-5.5	67.9
Jones	Chipper	NL	ATL	3B	394	1.066	10.1	51.1	12.8	0.5	64.4
Utley	Chase	NL	PHI	2B	520	0.944	7.2	43.5	19.1	0.6	63.2
Berkman	Lance	NL	HOU	1B	497	1.035	9.2	58.9	9.9	-6.0	62.8
Holliday	Matt T	NL	COL	LF	467	1.027	8.7	49.7	7.0	-3.8	52.8
Ramirez	Hanley	NL	FLA	SS	541	0.913	7.6	48.5	-0.4	4.2	52.3
Beltran	Carlos	NL	NYN	CF	518	0.835	6.3	32.3	10.7	2.8	45.9
Wright	David A	NL	NYN	3B	544	0.909	7.2	43.9	1.1	0.7	45.7
McCann	Brian M	NL	ATL	C	423	0.942	7.5	37.0	0.0	6.0	43.0
Braun	Ryan J	NL	MIL	LF	498	0.926	6.8	38.4	6.1	-4.1	40.4

This is the first update I can remember where Chipper Jones isn't at the top of the list. Two lost weeks hurt him.

Current Cy Young Leaders
American League

Last	First	Lg	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Halladay	Roy	AL	TOR	182.0	2.72	2.92	0.623	3.06	58.9	54.6
Lee	Cliff	AL	CLE	161.7	2.45	2.51	0.612	2.97	54.0	55.8
Duchscherer	Justin	AL	OAK	132.7	2.51	3.62	0.579	2.78	47.0	29.5
Danks	John W	AL	CHA	144.3	3.18	3.10	0.650	3.33	42.4	40.4
Santana	Ervin R	AL	LAA	156.3	3.45	3.40	0.644	3.54	42.1	38.6
Guthrie	Jeremy	AL	BAL	163.0	3.26	4.13	0.662	3.68	41.4	26.9
Saunders	Joe	AL	LAA	152.7	3.07	4.50	0.666	3.60	40.2	19.0
Lester	Jon T	AL	BOS	153.3	3.23	3.66	0.693	3.69	38.8	33.4
Wakefield	Tim	AL	BOS	147.0	3.67	4.79	0.668	3.60	38.6	13.5
Beckett	Josh	AL	BOS	147.0	3.92	3.30	0.691	3.73	36.6	37.9

Roy Holliday is a machine. I still don't believe in Cliff Lee.


National League

Last	First	Lg	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Webb	Brandon	NL	ARI	169.0	2.88	2.88	0.609	2.86	53.9	47.0
Haren	Dan	NL	ARI	159.0	3.00	2.79	0.612	2.89	50.2	45.9
Dempster	Ryan	NL	CHN	157.3	2.92	3.46	0.607	3.04	47.1	33.7
Hamels	Cole	NL	PHI	173.7	3.32	3.59	0.653	3.38	45.4	34.7
Lincecum	Tim	NL	SF	162.0	2.67	2.80	0.628	3.22	45.3	46.7
Sheets	Ben	NL	MIL	155.3	2.95	3.13	0.672	3.58	37.3	38.9
Cook	Aaron	NL	COL	172.0	3.87	3.75	0.732	3.80	37.1	31.3
Hudson	Tim	NL	ATL	142.0	3.17	3.79	0.657	3.45	36.2	25.2
Zambrano	Carlos	NL	CHN	151.0	3.22	3.90	0.674	3.61	35.7	24.9
Santana	Johan	NL	NYN	168.0	2.89	3.93	0.674	3.83	35.5	27.2

It's a shame to see Volquez fall off this list, but I like that the Reds are giving him a bit more rest of late. Where would the D-backs be this year without that Dan Haren trade?

The Dunn Trade

So, today Adam Dunn was traded for three players. I'm a bit under the weather tonight, so I'll be brief.

We only know the identities of one of them, RHP Dallas Buck. He apparently was a decent prospect some time ago, but had Tommy John surgery in 2006 and thus is behind a bit. He'll be 24 next year, and hopefully in AA.

The other players are unknowns, and will make this either a good or bad deal. I've supported the idea of not signing Dunn to an extension in the past. Given that, the decision about whether or not to trade him comes down to whether the haul in the trade is more valuable than the expected value of the compensation picks. The Reds obviously believe that they're coming out ahead here, but I'll have to see who they get to feel comfortable with this deal.

Morale-wise, it's hard to feel very happy about this. The already-weak offense is going to be a disaster for the rest of the season, and this team clearly isn't going to be much fun to watch. And Adam Dunn was always such a fun, charismatic guy--I'm going to miss him a lot. Add all of this to my already-frustrated state, and you don't have a recipe for a lot of interest on my part through the rest of the season.

Ross DFA'd: What the hell?

Let's say a team has three catchers: players A, B, & C. They want to give a cup of coffee to another catcher in their minor leagues and see how he does against big league pitching. So they need to get rid of one of their three catchers. All three are free agents at the end of the season, though there's a buyout on player A for $380k for 2009.

Below are forecasted AVG/OBP/SLG for each player, based on the a Marcel projection of their 2005-2008 performances. Note: This is NOT what their final 2008 stats are expected to look like. This is what you'd expect them to hit the rest of the way, and therefore an indication of their hitting talent.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	Fielding
Player A	0.229	0.318	0.420	0.738	+
Player B	0.264	0.325	0.414	0.739	-
Player C	0.221	0.291	0.321	0.612	+

Now, obviously none of these guys is particularly awesome. Of the three, though, Player A is clearly the best player, right? Hitting on par with player B, and good fielding to player B's crappyness. Still not sure? Player A is also the youngest (by one and a half years) of the bunch. So it seems pretty obvious that he should stay on the roster, right?

Depending on how important the defense is--it's hard for me to tell with catchers, as we still don't have particularly good metrics to evaluate their contributions to runs allowed--the player to go would probably be either player B or player C. I'd probably ditch player B, but that's based on a long-held (and largely groundless) dislike of bad defensive catchers.

So why on earth did the Reds DFA David Ross (Player A) today?

Well, he's right-handed, and so is Hanigan. Valentin (Player B) and Bako (Player C) both bat lefty. ... I don't think that's a particularly good reason.

He also makes more money than the other players, so the Reds might save a good $900k million if you include the remainder of his salary and the buyout next year--assuming someone claims him off of waivers. $900k's something, but in an era when a win will likely cost roughly $4.8 million in the coming offseason free agent market, it's not much. Ross projects as a plus-replacement level player, and so he would probably have contributed at least even value on his $3.5 million salary.

Look, I can deal with the Reds making a decision to not have Ross on the roster next year. The buyout's a drop in the bucket, and he's not particularly special. But I think if you make that decision, you also have to decide that Bako and Valentin won't be on the roster next year, right? And if you come to the decision that they've all got to go, don't you ditch the worst players before you ditch the better players? Especially if you're still trying to "win" (play 0.500+ ball, which is probably out of reach anyway) this year? What I see today is my "favorite" team ditching their best catcher in favor of two inferior players. It's a minor move, and probably doesn't matter much in and of itself. But I'm just getting sick of all of this nonsense.

...

John Erardi has a nice article today comparing the Pirates to the Reds. It states at the bottom that I was a contributor, but that's being overly generous, because I didn't do anything for it. But I do agree with just about everything that's in there.

I have to tell you, I'm pretty tired of following a club that is not only bad, but is apparently making bad decisions. I mean, how can you feel good about a team that is doing things like this?

And here are the Pirates, now effectively in my back yard, hiring smart general managers and good front office people, and doing a freaking fabulous job at the trading deadline (holding onto Bay until he rebounded from his bad 2007 is exactly what a smart team would do--heck of a payoff). Their AA club is less than 15 minutes from my house, and the big league club is only 1.5 hours away...plus I can watch HD broadcasts of their games virtually every night.

So why on earth would I choose to follow the Reds instead of the Pirates? Childhood loyalties? That's about all I have these days, and that's fading fast... Maybe I'll start covering both teams around here... I dunno, we'll see.

A look at Griffey's career

Griffey's era with the Reds came to an anticlimactic end last week in a trade to the White Sox for a couple of scrubs. And while his career can't be said to be over yet--he's given no indications that he's retiring thus far--I wanted to take a quick look back at his impressive career.

George Kenneth Griffey, Jr., was the first overall selection in the 1987 amateur draft out of Moeller High School in Cincinnati. Other notables taken in the first round include Jack McDowell (5th), Kevin Appier (9th), Delino DeShields (11th), Mike Remlinger (16th), Jack Armstrong (18th), Craig Biggio (22nd), Pete Harnisch (27th), and Travis Fryman (30th). Pretty impressive class...but Griffey was clearly the best of the bunch.

Griffey skyrocketed through the minors, beating the tarnation out of A-ball teams before a short stint at AA to end his year-18 season. He skipped AAA altogether, starting instead in center field for Seattle in the 1989 season as a 19-year old. Thus began what has to be considered among the most dominant first 12 years in baseball history, and, of course, a shoe-in Hall of Fame career. He was a 13-time all-star, 10-time gold glover, 7-time silver slugger, and the 1997 MVP (five times in the top-5).

Hitting

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	R/G	RAA	RAA/PA	RAR
1989	19	SEA	506	16%	9%	0.288	0.264	0.329	0.420	0.156	0.749	4.7	7.3	0.015	21.8
1990	20	SEA	666	12%	9%	0.315	0.300	0.366	0.481	0.181	0.847	6.0	27.6	0.042	46.1
1991	21	SEA	633	13%	11%	0.344	0.327	0.399	0.527	0.200	0.926	7.3	43.5	0.069	60.4
1992	22	SEA	617	11%	7%	0.310	0.308	0.361	0.535	0.227	0.896	6.6	37.0	0.060	53.7
1993	23	SEA	691	13%	14%	0.298	0.309	0.408	0.617	0.308	1.025	8.5	60.7	0.088	80.0
1994	24	SEA	493	15%	11%	0.311	0.323	0.402	0.674	0.351	1.076	9.2	48.1	0.098	63.1
1995	25	SEA	314	17%	17%	0.260	0.258	0.379	0.481	0.223	0.860	6.4	11.2	0.036	21.0
1996	26	SEA	638	16%	12%	0.290	0.303	0.392	0.628	0.325	1.020	8.6	52.3	0.082	72.4
1997	27	SEA	704	17%	11%	0.291	0.304	0.382	0.646	0.342	1.028	8.3	58.1	0.082	79.4
1998	28	SEA	720	17%	11%	0.270	0.284	0.365	0.611	0.327	0.976	7.7	50.1	0.070	72.6
1999	29	SEA	706	15%	13%	0.277	0.285	0.384	0.576	0.291	0.960	7.6	42.0	0.059	64.7
2000	30	CIN	631	19%	15%	0.272	0.271	0.387	0.556	0.285	0.943	7.3	31.6	0.050	52.1
2001	31	CIN	417	17%	11%	0.298	0.286	0.365	0.533	0.247	0.898	6.6	18.8	0.045	31.8
2002	32	CIN	232	17%	12%	0.286	0.264	0.358	0.426	0.162	0.784	5.0	2.0	0.009	9.1
2003	33	CIN	201	22%	13%	0.252	0.247	0.370	0.566	0.319	0.936	7.0	11.2	0.056	17.4
2004	34	CIN	348	19%	13%	0.260	0.253	0.351	0.513	0.260	0.864	6.1	10.7	0.031	21.9
2005	35	CIN	555	17%	10%	0.305	0.301	0.369	0.576	0.275	0.945	7.3	36.2	0.065	52.7
2006	36	CIN	472	17%	8%	0.248	0.252	0.316	0.486	0.234	0.802	5.0	1.3	0.003	17.5
2007	37	CIN	623	16%	14%	0.284	0.277	0.372	0.496	0.219	0.868	6.2	20.9	0.034	40.2
2008	38	TOT	439	15%	14%	0.263	0.247	0.355	0.427	0.180	0.782	5.2	4.2	0.010	18.1
Career			10606	16%	12%	0.290	0.288	0.373	0.548	0.260	0.921	7.0	575.0	0.054	896

The Griffey that we'll remember was a guy who had decent strikeout rates, decent to good walk rates, and amazing power. He had five seasons with a 0.300+ isolated power. His best offensive season may well have been his MVP year, when he hit 0.304/56/147 (triple crown stats) and produced 79 runs above replacement to lead the AL West champion '97 Mariners to the postseason. At least as good, however, was his 1993 performance (80 RAR), and he was on pace for his greatest season ever in 1994 before it was cut short by the strike (9.2 R/G, 0.10 RAA/PA, 63 RAR & 40 HR in 111 games). His peak lasted roughly 7 seasons, though the strike and a wrist injury limited his playing time in '94 and '95.

During Griffey's career, the average MLB team has gone from scoring 4.14 runs per game in 1989 to 5.14 runs per game in 2000, and back down to the current level around 4.8 runs per game. He has always clocked in as an above-average hitter. He's played his entire career in hitters' parks (the Kingdome, Cinergy Field, and Great American Ballparks), but even after adjusting for his home parks his offense has accounted for 896 runs above replacement and counting.

Fielding & Total Value

Year	PA	RAA	RAR	ZR-Runs	PosAdj	TtlVal-RAA	TtlVal-RAR
1989	506	9	24	-3	3	9	24
1990	666	30	48	3	4	36	55
1991	633	45	61	-5	4	43	60
1992	617	37	54	-6	3	34	51
1993	691	61	80	-2	3	62	81
1994	493	48	63	-5	2	46	60
1995	314	11	21	-9	2	4	14
1996	638	52	72	-5	3	51	71
1997	704	58	79	-6	4	56	77
1998	720	50	73	-3	4	51	73
1999	706	44	67	-8	4	40	63
2000	631	32	52	14	3	49	70
2001	417	19	32	0	2	21	34
2002	232	2	9	-1	1	2	9
2003	201	11	17	-1	1	11	17
2004	348	11	22	-13	2	0	11
2005	555	36	52	-21	3	18	34
2006	472	2	18	-11	2	-7	9
2007	623	22	41	-3	-5	14	33
2008	433	5	19	2	-3	4	17
Career	10600	584	905	-83	42	543	864

I'm a little hamstrung here, because for this table I'm only using zone rating from ESPN. I strongly prefer to use at least two fielding metrics whenever possible, but prior to 2003 or thereabouts I just don't have the data to do this. In recent years, ZR has been much more favorable toward Griffey's performances in the field than other metrics (e.g. RZR, UZR, PMR).

But surprisingly, even given that, Griffey doesn't come off as an overwhelmingly good fielder. In fact, compared to other center fielders, Griffey typically came out a tad below average over most of his career. The one real exception was in his first year with the Reds, 2000, when he was rated 14 runs above average. I have to wonder if there are some park effects that aren't accounted for at the Kingdome. As bad as the gold glove voters can be, I have a hard time believing that Griffey would win 10 straight gold gloves at a premier defensive position if he was a below-average fielder. While the only other fielding resource I have on hand from that era, Clay Davenport's fielding translations, show Griffey in a somewhat more positive light, he still does not come across as an exceptional defender by the numbers.

Even if we accept these data, though, it wasn't until the 2004 season--following three seasons shortened by leg injuries--that he became a genuine liability in the field. In 2005, his first year back from an experimental hamstring surgery, his defense cut his value by 35%--and those are some of the more generous numbers you'll find. The move to right field in 2007 certainly helped, but other metrics indicate that he's still a dreadful fielder in right.

Even though the fielding numbers don't help his cause, Griffey's overall numbers are still hard to match: 846 runs above replacement on his career (~85 wins), and counting. It's been a very impressive career. And the best part is, even though he's fading, he's not done yet. Add my voice to the chorus of Reds fans who hope that he not only makes it to the post-season, but gets the chance to play for his first ring.

Update: At Sky's suggestion, I checked out Sean Smith's TotalZone ratings for Griffey. Here they are (runs vs. average; year).

-12	1989
-4	1990
-2	1991
-7	1992
-12	1993
-9	1994
2	1995
5	1996
6	1997
6	1998
8	2000
-10	2001
-11	2002
-5	2003
-9	2004
-23	2005
-17	2006
0	2007

Again, the data don't support the idea that Griffey was a spectacular outfielder at any point in his career. Nevertheless, especially when you keep in mind that he was playing center field during this time, Griffey was clearly a defensive asset throughout most of his offensive peak (~'93-'99). It wasn't until 2004 or 2005 that he became a real liability out there. Again, 2005 was the season following his experimental hamstring surgery, which is when I think most of us noticed his drastically reduced speed.

These ratings would also indicate that his best season was clearly his MVP year, when he was 79 runs above replacement via offense, 6 runs above average as a center fielder, and receives a +4 run bonus for playing a premium position. That's 89 runs above a replacement player, which is a spectacular season.