July 2007 Reds Review Part 2: Hitting

After scoring a season high 4.8 r/g in June (6th in the league), the Reds' offense declined fairly dramatically in July, scoring just 4.4 r/g (11th in league). The primary cause seemed to be a dramatic decline in power, falling from a 0.452 SLG in June to just 0.389 in July (14th in NL).

To try to understand what happened, let's look at the Reds' stats on the month:

Name	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	BIPaOPS	wOBA	SBRns	RC
B. Phillips	120	16%	5%	0.330	0.310	0.350	0.504	0.195	0.854	0.816	0.363	-0.2	17
A. Dunn	109	26%	17%	0.298	0.239	0.376	0.455	0.216	0.831	0.831	0.360	0.2	16
K. Griffey	111	15%	21%	0.209	0.205	0.369	0.375	0.170	0.744	0.874	0.303	0.7	15
Hatteberg	76	9%	18%	0.370	0.339	0.461	0.468	0.129	0.928	0.823	0.389	0.0	14
R. Freel	103	18%	3%	0.293	0.242	0.301	0.326	0.084	0.627	0.643	0.285	0.3	10
Keppinger	55	4%	7%	0.319	0.320	0.382	0.500	0.180	0.882	0.855	0.384	0.0	10
D. Ross	72	25%	10%	0.273	0.231	0.306	0.446	0.215	0.752	0.792	0.315	0.0	8
Encarnacion	86	20%	8%	0.259	0.221	0.302	0.312	0.091	0.614	0.679	0.282	0.2	8
J. Conine	54	9%	9%	0.256	0.250	0.315	0.375	0.125	0.690	0.759	0.305	0.2	6
N. Hopper	47	15%	4%	0.368	0.311	0.340	0.356	0.044	0.696	0.589	0.313	-0.5	5
J. Hamilton	16	31%	6%	0.500	0.357	0.438	0.643	0.286	1.080	0.870	0.460	0.0	4
J. Valentin	43	19%	0%	0.294	0.238	0.256	0.286	0.048	0.542	0.557	0.243	0.0	3
A. Gonzalez	35	31%	6%	0.318	0.212	0.257	0.303	0.091	0.560	0.542	0.250	0.0	2
P. Lopez	40	15%	3%	0.219	0.184	0.225	0.237	0.053	0.462	0.602	0.211	0.0	2
J. Castro	6	0%	17%	0.400	0.400	0.500	0.400	0.000	0.900	0.724	0.420	0.0	1

Ok, first, the good:

Brandon Phillips had a fantastic month with his bat. Thanks to a high batting average, which was aided by a mildly high BABIP, and a return of a modest walk rate, he posted his first 0.350+ OBP month of the year. At the same time, he easily led the team with six home runs and 57 total bases, posting a fine 0.363 wOBA--outstanding performance for a middle infielder.

Scott Hatteberg was machine, though much of his on-base success (0.461) can be explained by his unusually high BABIP. Nevertheless, he continues to be of fine value on more active side of the Reds' 1B platoon. ... And therefore, he should have had trade value. But whatever.

For all my concerns about how Jeff Keppinger might push Encarnacion to the bench under Mackanin, there's no denying what a fine 55 PA's he had in July. I was very positive about Keppinger in my profile of him last February, and I'm excited to see him showing his worth in the big leagues. I do not see him as a starter, at least not with Eddie on the team, but I love him as an offensively-oriented 5th infielder.

And then the mediocre:

It's hard to call Adam Dunn's month bad, as the guy did post an 0.376 OBP on the month. But his power numbers (0.455 SLG) were the lowest he's posted in any month this season, and the Reds clearly needed help in that area. That said, he wasn't the main problem with the Reds offense by any means. It's also worth nothing that his walk rate was back up to normal after a strange decline in June. Dunn'll be fine, this was just an off-month for him.

Dave Ross posted a 0.750 OPS, and has not posted an OPS below 0.700 since April. His low OBP is not good, but his ISO of 0.215 is was in a virtual tie for the club lead last month. Given his defensive skills abilities behind the plate, I'm ok with this. ... though it sure would be nice if he could rediscover the 13% walk rate he posted last season.

And then there were the guys who had miserable months:

Ken Griffey Jr. hit 0.205/0.369/0.375. What happened? His isolated power is about half of what it was in May and June, though it was his batting average that really killed his slugging percentage. His BABIP was a ridiculous 0.209 in July, which suggests that he had some bad luck. ... though it is worth noting that his line drive rate has been declining over the past few weeks, and is back down to the rather low rate that he posted last season (currently just 14.8% for the year, which predicts ~0.270 BABIP--far lower than his career rates). I'm going to want to wait another month before I start sounding alarms, but it's worth monitoring these last few months. At least he has still been walking at a fantastic rate...

Ryan Freel, on the other hand, has been positively awful since returning from his concussion-induced break, hitting 0.242/0.301/0.326 in July. You have to wonder if he is really okay, or if he needs to take another month off. His BABIP was 0.293, which doesn't suggest particularly bad luck, especially for someone who has an 18% LD rate. The biggest drop in his productivity seems to have been caused by his walk rate, which dropped to a team-low 3% in July. This from a guy who walked in 11-12% of his plate appearances from 2004-2006. In fact, his OBP was as high as it was last month simply because he managed to get himself hit by a pitch five times. I'm not sure what has happened--he doesn't seem to have been more aggressive, as his strikeout rates are right where they've always been. But over his career, those walk rates have been the primary offensive weapon that Freel has had. Without them, and with the drop in line drive rate he's shown this season (previously 20-25%), Freel has been completely impotent at the plate. And yet he accounted for more than 10% of the Reds plate appearances in July. Get him out of the lineup, Pete. ... or at least out of the leadoff spot. Please?

Edwin Encarnacion actually had a worse month, by the numbers, than Freel, hitting just 0.221/0.302/0.312 in July. His BABIP was a bit low, but even adjusting it up to 0.300 doesn't push his OPS out of the 0.600's. Edwin's season, so far, is easily the most disappointing individual performance of the year. His strikeout and walk rates this season are pretty much where they were last season. But his line drive rate is down, and his isolated power is just better than half of what it was last season. I still have faith in the kid, and I think he can pull out of it--but if the Reds keep playing him (as they should), and he does not start to show improvement by the end of the season... Well...

Finally, the "reserve" Reds were even worse on the month, with the combination of Conine, Hopper, Valentin, Gonzalez, and Lopez creating just 18 runs in 219 plate appearances--a lower rate than Freel or Encarnacion. And those five players accounted for 22.5% of all Reds plate appearances in June. Combine that with Freel and Eddie's PA, and you have 42% of all Reds plate appearances in July providing replacement level (or worse) production. Frankly, it's a testament to the performance of the rest of the Red hitters that they still managed to score 4.4 runs per game.

July 2007 Reds Review Part 1: Overview

July 2007 in Brief
July Record: 14-12 (0.538)
Series Record: 4-4-0
PFadj-Runs Scored: 115 (4.4 r/g, 11th in NL)
PFadj-Runs Allowed: 134 (5.1 r/g, 9th in NL)
Team OBP: 0.333 (8th in NL)
Team SLG: 0.389 (14th in NL)
Team FIP: 4.80 (10th in NL)
Team DER: 0.675 (13th in NL)

Season to Date
Overall Record: 45-62 (0.421), 13 games back
Series Record: 10-23-1
PythagoPat Record: 48-59 (0.449)
Remaining Record Needed for 81 Wins: 36-19 (0.655)
Remaining Record Needed for 90 Wins: 45-10 (0.818)
PFadj-Runs Scored: 488 (4.6 r/g, 8th in NL)
PFadj-Runs Allowed: 553 (5.1 r/g, 14th in NL)
Team OBP: 0.324 (T-11th in NL)
Team SLG: 0.424 (5th in NL)
Team FIP: 4.34 (7th in NL)
Team DER: 0.676 (15th in NL)

What Happened...
As the Reds' disastrous first half came to a close, fans saw the dismissal of manager Jerry Narron and his bench coach, Bucky Dent, and their replacement by Pete Mackanin and Pat Kelly. And then, something magical happened. After playing just over replacement level since mid-April, and not sweeping a team all season, the Reds surged to their first 0.500+ month since June 2006, including sweeps of two contending teams, the Diamondbacks and Braves.

Here's how the NL Central looked to date, courtesy of The Hardball Times:
While it's hard to say that the Reds really gained ground, they at least held their position well enough to let the rapidly imploding Pirates plummet past them into the cellar (despite claims at the All-Star break that my projection of the Reds finishing ahead of pIrates was laughable). Among the actual "good" teams in the Central, the Cubs continued the surge they began in mid-June, while the Brewers continued to fall back toward 0.500, putting my projection of the Brewers winning the division in serious jeopardy.

Breaking it down...
So how did they do it? How did the Reds post their first 0.500+ month in over a year?

Well, it doesn't seem like they did it with their offense, which went from scoring 4.8 r/g in June to just 4.4 r/g in July. While OBP did increase on the month, the Reds' power--their strength this season--dried up almost completely, showing a microscopic 0.389 SLG in July.

And it doesn't seem like they did it with their pitching, which posted a 4.80 FIP on the month, 10th in the league and identical to the June numbers.

And it doesn't seem like they did it with fielding, because the Reds posted a Defense Efficiency Ratio of 0.675--thirteenth in the NL, and almost exactly the same as the year-to-date rate (0.676).

...so let's see. If it wasn't the offense, it wasn't the pitching, and it wasn't the fielding, how did the Reds post a 0.500+ month? The answer is timing. Or luck. Whatever you want to call it. Overall, the Reds scored 115 runs and allowed 134 runs (park factor adjusted numbers), which, via Pythagoras, predict a record of 11-15. That's three games fewer than they actually won. The Reds went 7-2 in one-run games, and 4-0 in extra inning games in July. So things went the Reds' way this past month a bit more often than expected. It's about freaking time.

July Transactions

July 1st
- Jerry Narron (fired; it must have been his fault)
+ Pete MacKanin (hired; good luck, man)

July 3rd
- Bucky Dent (fired; or did he quit?)
- Ed Napoleon (quit)
+ Pat Kelly (hired)
+ IF/OF Ryan Freel (from DL; returning from post-concussion problems)
- C Chad Moeller (DFA to AAA; can't hit, can't throw)

July 5th
- RHP Brad Salmon (to AAA; we hardly new thee)
+ LHP Mike Stanton (from DL; hamstring)

July 7th
- IF Juan Castro (to DL; elbow)
- RHP Marcus McBeth (to AAA; we hardly new thee)
- RHP Ricky Stone (DFA, to AAA; DIPS caught up to him)
+ RHP Kirk Saarloos (from AAA; would he be better this time?)
+ IF Jeff Keppinger (from AAA; good reserve player, but also white & makes contact, thus overrated)
+ RHP Jared Burton (from DL; rule 5 players get hurt pretty easy)

July 8th
- RHP Homer Bailey (to AAA; awful command, groin hurt)
+ IF Pedro Lopez (from AAA; need SS replacement)

July 12th
- OF Josh Hamilton (to DL; wrist)
+ C Chad Moeller (from AAA; uhh...)

July 14th
- SS Alex Gonzalez (to bereavement list; get well soon to his young son)

July 17th
+ LHP Bobby Livingston (from AAA; now 5th starter)

July 20th
- RHP Aaron Harang (to bereavement list; grandfather passed)
+ RHP Ricky Stone (from AAA; local kid gets another shot)

July 22nd
= SS Alex Gonzalez (from bereavement to restricted list; son)
- RHP Ricky Stone (to AAA; so long, and thanks for all the fish)
+ RHP Aaron Harang (from bereavement list; condolences)

July 27th
- SS Pedro Lopez (to DL; broken face, scary)
+ IF Juan Castro (from DL; can't throw ball though)

July 28th
- RHP Kirk Saarloos (to AAA; no, he wasn't better this time)
+ RHP Victor Santos (from AAA; why not McBeth? Salmon? Bray? Majewski? No comprende!)

Coming up next--a look at the hitting, pitching, and defense in July.

Trading Deadline Ramblings

So, in the end, only two moves were made prior to the non-waiver trading deadline this season, and only one involved moving a player (Lohse) who was going to walk for no return at the end of the season. The other three candidates that I most expected to be traded -- Hatteberg, Weathers, and Conine -- are staying with the Reds, at least for now.

It's not impossible that one or all of them could squeak through trade waivers and be traded over these last two months. But it has to be considered less likely to happen than a trade prior to the deadline. The biggest surprise, to me, was the failure to move Hatteberg. I really like him, but I figured these last two months would be a great opportunity to bring up Votto and give him some big league experience, at least against right-handed pitchers. Hatteberg would be a great injury replacement for a team at first base, and would be a fantastic guy to have on your bench when you're making a playoff run. He's an ideal pinch hitter--a high OBP, high contact guy that is exactly who you want at the plate when you have a runner on third base. So it seems like he would have had value. ... But at the same time, he wouldn't have brought a top-flight prospect in return either.

Nevertheless, there are some good things that come from this rather uneventful deadline. Adam Dunn was not traded, and while we won't hear anything about it for a while, I'll be surprised if the Reds would take the talent hit of not picking up his extension for next year. As Joel points out, there is certainly room in the budget to keep him.

I had argued for a trade of Griffey (for good return). But Joel's runs scored analysis, which was featured in the Sunday Enquirer article, does provide a compelling argument about why the Reds should keep him (and Dunn). I think it's a bit risky, but if you're going to gamble on a hitter to keep producing at age 38, you can do worse than gambling on Griffey. If he comes through, and we see the improvements we expect to see next season among some of our other young offensive players, the Reds could have an outstanding offense next season. And a truly outstanding offense could mean that a playoff run is a legitimate possibility with only modest improvement in pitching and defense.

The surprising Matt Morris trade today indicates, to me, that the Reds got a reasonable return on Lohse--Rajai Davis has some on-base skills, but at 26.8 yrs, he's hardly a prospect, and I'm happier taking Maloney for the Reds' needs. At best, Davis seems comparable to Chris Denorfia with less power, and Denorfia "just" brought Marcus McBeth in return. Pittsburgh is taking on a sizable salary both this and next season, but Morris is still a decent pitcher, and they get control over him next year. Morris also has a better track record than Lohse, though Lohse's performance this season is a bit better. So I would have rated their value to a contender as more or less equivalent this season. He should help Pittsburgh.

So overall, while I would have liked to see another small deal or two, the Reds could have done a lot worse. Despite all the rumors about Adam Dunn's departure, Krivsky stuck to his guns and demanded the appropriate high price for Dunn. It meant that he didn't get a deal done, but it also meant that he didn't accept a return below Dunn's worth.

Reds send Lohse to Phils for Maloney

Today the Reds traded Kyle Lohse to the Phillies in exchange for LHP Matt Maloney.

Lohse has been an intriguing pitcher this year thanks to his Jekyll and Hyde routine, but his inconsistency actually may have resulted in him being more valuable than someone putting up comparable numbers via more consistent starts. His bad starts obviously have been near-unwinnable, but those excellent starts of his have made up for that by giving the Reds a great chance to win.

Lohse is certainly not an ace, but he's been valuable in our rotation this season and should give the Phillies an additional win or so down the stretch. Lohse's '07 VORP (9.2 runs) ranks fourth among the Phillies' starters behind Cole Hamels (29.9), Jamie Moyer (12.1), and Kyle Kendrick (11.2). With Freddy Garcia out 'til mid-August and Jon Lieber out for the season, Lohse should really solidify the back end of the Phils' rotation. Whether it will be enough to catch the Mets...who knows?

Trading Lohse does make sense for the Reds. As a Scott Boras client, he will probably get at least a Gil Meche-level deal, as he has a better track record than Meche ever did. And that kind of deal would not be an efficient use of money (though the Reds do have to find the starting talent somewhere, and if you can save one place, you can afford to overpay somewhere else if it improves the ballclub). Furthermore, I'm skeptical about whether Elias would rate Lohse among the top 40% of starting pitchers--especially given his bad numbers in the first half last year--which is what would be required for the Reds to get any kind of draft pick compensation if they let him walk.

So from that perspective, this deal makes sense. What about the guy the Reds got in exchange?

Matt Maloney, 23 yrs, LHP
Maloney was the Phillies' 3rd-round draft choice in the 2005 draft out of U-Miss. He has advanced each year since '05, and is currently having a nice season in AA. Baseball America ranked him the 9th best prospect in the Phillies' farm system this year, while John Sickels ranked him 6th (B- prospect). BPro's Kevin Goldstein also ranked him 6th this past offseason, but gave him the Philles' Pedroia/Clippard award a few months ago (awarded to players whose stats make them look better than they are likely to be), citing concerns about whether his poor command and mid-to-high 80's fastball would be enough to succeed at higher levels.

Stats:

Team	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	R/9	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2005/PHI-A-	21	37.0	8.8	3.6	0.49	0.324	4.86	3.89	3.17	6.36	-5.8	32%
2006/PHI-A	22	168.7	9.6	3.9	0.27	0.261	2.88	2.08	2.75	5.00	17	46%
2007/PHI-AA	23	125.7	8.2	3.2	0.93	0.284	5.01	3.94	3.79	---	---	41%

Maloney thus far has posted good strikeout numbers and excellent home run-allowed numbers in his minor league career. His walk rate has certainly been worse than average, but it has been better this year. The concern, if his stuff is not particularly good, is that his strikeout rate may decline dramatically as the quality of hitters improves. Furthermore, while not extreme, he generally seems to be a fly ball pitcher (~42% mean fly ball rate), which leads to concern that his nice homer rate may not be indicative of particular skill in keeping the ball in the park.

Still, while his numbers this season have taken a hit compared to what he did in single-A last year, he has continued to be effective. Next season, at AAA-Louisville, we'll get a much better idea of his ceiling when he faces that level of competition. If he can continue to improve his walk rate and eventually get it below 3 bb/9, he may have enough stuff to contribute in the starting rotation at the major league level. If not, he still may have some future as a reliever, given the fact that he's a lefty. Given Krivsky's apparent emphasis on scouting over stats (at least, that's my impression of his emphasis), I have to hope that they see more in Maloney's potential than Goldstein does, and that's why they went with him--Krivsky's comments certainly seem enthusiastic about the kid.

Just for comparison, here are peripherals for two other lowish-end young Reds' left-handers at A-, A, and AA levels (update: Following Fay's lead, I've added Zach Ward, given that he was who we sent to Minnesota for Lohse last July):

Phil Dumatrait
Class A - 21 yrs - 8.1 k/9, 3.5 bb/9, 0.4 hr/9
Class A+ - 22 yrs - 6.3 k/9, 5.0 bb/9, 0.4 hr/9
Class AA - 24 yrs - 7.9 k/9, 4.1 bb/9, 0.3 hr/9

Bobby Livingston
Class A- - 19 yrs - 8.5 k/9, 1.6 bb/9, 0.2 hr/9
Class A - 20 yrs - 5.3 k/9, 1.4 bb/9, 0.5 hr/9
Class AA - 22 yrs - 6.0 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 0.5 hr/9

Zach Ward
Class A- - 22 yrs - 7.4 k/9, 3.0 bb/9, 0.2 hr/9
Class A+ - 23 yrs - 7.5 k/9, 2.1 bb/9, 0.3 hr/9

Based on these numbers, Maloney looks a fair bit better than Dumatrait (better k-rates and bb-rates). And he's a much different pitcher than Livingston, though their overall performance levels have been somewhat similar. Maloney has had much higher strikeout rates, but also much higher walk rates. In general, I prefer prospects that have higher strikeout rates, as that indicates better overall stuff. You just hope that they can learn better command.

Maloney also compares favorably to Zach Ward, who I was disappointed to see the Reds lose last season in exchange for Lohse. While Ward has the edge on walk rates and home run rates (though Ward has very good GB%'s, indicating those HR-rates may remain as he moves up), Maloney has had a consistent advantage in strikeouts--and has done it at a younger age each step along the way.

So Maloney isn't a nobody. Based on the numbers, he's a better prospect than Livingston or Dumatrait ever were, and has to be considered to have a leg up on the same-aged Ward at this point as wel,l given that Maloney is a level above him. That might not be saying much, but the point is that he's definitely worth more than a bag of balls, and might be a good back of the rotation starter for the Reds in a few years. Overall, what we have is a deal in which a rental pitcher who is probably worth a win over replacement over the last two months was exchanged for a guy who has a legit shot as a back of the rotation starter in two years. It sounds like a pretty fair exchange.

Still, I can't help feeling a bit disappointed with this return for Lohse. With someone like Linebrink bringing Will Inman and two other pitchers just last week, I thought we might be able to get a little more for him. But it's hard to know for sure what the market for Lohse was, especially with his reputation for inconsistency and being a head-case. And I probably have tended to overvalue Lohse in his time with the Reds, and I think Linebrink was probably overvalued by the Brewers in that deal. So in the end, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that this is a pretty fair exchange--a decent return for Lohse, even though it's probably not a great return. Hopefully it'll pan out for both parties.

Enquirer mentions OPS, BABIP, RC, VORP!

Earlier this week, I mentioned I'd been having a lot of really interesting e-mail conversations. The result is a terrific set of articles in today's Enquirer by John Erardi. Also contributing to the articles was Slyde of Red Reporter fame, and Greg Gajus (who I don't really know). I'll have more on them later tonight, but for now, here are the links:

• Extreme Makeover: Crunching the Numbers (introduction)
• The Truth About RISP
• The Case for Keeping Dunn (this is the one that I had the most input on--though the runs comparison format of the analysis was all Joel, I just added some details)
  
• Stats: Trade Arroyo, Keep Dunn

Major kudos to John Erardi for seeking us out, and being so open to not only listening to, but really trying to understand our ideas. He did a wonderful job.

Update: For some reason, the online version of the Case for Keeping Dunn article has been truncated from its original version posted this morning. That's a shame, as much of the good stuff was below where they cut it off. Here's the original in its entirety, via RedsZone:

WHY IMPROVING TO 90 WINS WITHOUT ADAM DUNN WOULD BE A HUGE CHALLENGE

The Reds, statisticians say, are poised somewhere between being in contention in the next two years and being the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Blow the expected Adam Dunn trade, they say, and the Reds would be the Pirates - unless Homer Bailey and prospect Joey Votto become stars, Josh Hamilton and prospect Jay Bruce become All-Stars and Ken Griffey Jr. defies the aging/injury process.

"The Reds must pitch and defend better to win," we keep hearing.
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But here are the facts: If the Reds trade Dunn, there will be only two ways they could get into contention: 1) by replacing most of his offense and pitching and defending much better, or 2) by replacing all of his offense and pitching and defending reasonably better.

The math: To get into contention next year, the Reds must score at least 50 more runs than they allow. The runs scored/runs allowed stat can predict to within five victories either way how many games a team is going to win. The very best teams (95-plus wins) will score 100 more runs than they allow.

Given everybody's present pace, the Reds will score about 770 runs this season. The problem is that at the current rate, the Reds will allow about 815 runs. That ratio projects to a 77-85 win-loss record. The team needs to flip that ratio to make things interesting next season.

So, how do the Reds do it?

If they trade Dunn, they will need considerably more output from guys like Hamilton, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Phillips. If the Reds get that output, they barely will be able to make up for the loss of Dunn's offense.

Then - and here's the point - the pitching staff and defense would have to allow 130 fewer runs to have a shot at 90 wins, which is a reasonable number for winning the National League Central Division.

However, if the Reds keep Dunn and the other players improve as much as hoped (Freel and Hopper wouldn't get as much playing time as they would if Dunn weren't here), then the Reds would need to reduce their runs allowed by only 60 to reach 90 wins.

That would be a much easier bill to fill via free agents and minor trades.

How hard is it to improve pitching and defense by 60 runs vs. 130 runs? Let's explain it by the commonly understood concept of earned-run average. To save 60 runs in a season, the pitching staff would have to drop its ERA by .37; to drop 130 runs, the ERA would have to drop by .80. The Reds' team ERA is currently 4.70; saving 60 additional runs (assuming all are earned) would mean the staff ERA would need to drop to about 4.33. That's a reasonable improvement to make via free agency and some better performances from individuals already on the pitching staff and/or defense.

But improving by 130 runs would require the team ERA to drop from 4.70 to 3.90. That's not impossible, but it would be an enormous improvement. The last time the Reds staff had an ERA of 4.40 or lower was 2002 - not that long ago - and they were at 4.51 just last season. But the last time they had an ERA of 3.97 or lower? The strike year of 1994, although they were close in 1999. (Is it any surprise that only a strike and one loss to the New York Mets, respectively, kept the 1994 and 1999 Reds out of the postseason?)

To understand how much individual pitching will be required to reduce the runs-allowed by 60 vs. 130, one must understand a sabermetric principle called VORP (value over replacement player). Replacement players are defined as the expected performance of a journeyman "scrub" pitcher - say, a waiver-wire claim or a non-prospect called up from Triple-A - so VORP describes the improvement in runs saved over what that the journeyman pitcher should save.

Even adding the best pitcher in baseball last year - Johan Santana of the Twins - to the Reds staff would save the Reds just fewer than 80 runs; Santana had a VORP of 79.6 runs in 2006.

Here are the top pitchers, as measured by VORP, in 2006:

79.6 VORP - Santana, 233.7 IP, 2.77 ERA.
72.4 VORP - Roy Oswalt, 220.7 IP, 2.98 ERA.
68.9 VORP - Brandon Webb, 235 IP, 3.10 ERA.
68.0 VORP - Roy Halladay, 220 IP, 3.19 ERA.
67.8 VORP - Chris Carpenter, 221.7 IP, 3.09 ERA.
64.9 VORP - Bronson Arroyo, 240.7 IP, 3.29 ERA.

So, as you can see, none of these pitchers - by themselves - would improve the Reds by 130 runs just by being inserted into the rotation ahead of whoever the Reds' No. 5 starter would be next season.

Even if the Reds could do that, they'd still need to add a lot more talent to make up the 130-run deficit. (In case you're wondering, a plus-30-runs pitcher is someone who gives you 200-plus innings pitched with a league-average ERA. Think Dave Bush of Milwaukee or Zach Duke of Pittsburgh last year.)

But a 60-run improvement? That's doable. With some progress from the Reds' bullpen pitchers and by adding a good starter or two - say Bailey puts together a nice season, and the Reds add another starter in the offseason - pitching could improve by 60 runs.

WHY DUNN IS MORE VALUABLE THAN YOU THINK

The common misconception is that the Reds won't suffer a big loss in their offense if Dunn is traded. His relatively low RBI totals for a 40-HR-a-year man often are cited as evidence that he is not a run producer. But a statistic called runs created, which attempts to estimate the total number of runs a player contributes to a team's offense irrespective of the actions of others on their team, indicates that Dunn is, indeed, a major run producer.

Put aside what you think you know about the part that an individual player's batting average, home runs, RBI and runs play in a team's ability to score runs. A hitter's real job is to put runs on the scoreboard, no matter who scores them or drives them in.

Loosely defined, runs created is a statistic that attempts to convert all the contributions of a player's offense into the currency of runs. Hit a single? That's worth, on average, a certain fraction of a run. A double is worth more runs than a single, and a home run is worth more than that. Walks and stolen bases also are included, and outs generated at the plate or by getting caught stealing are subtracted from the total. The net result is an overall view of the total contribution of a player to the team's total runs scored.

The Reds had scored 470 runs as of Tuesday. Dunn led the team with 65 runs created, which accounts for 14 percent of the team's total runs scored. Griffey was second with 64 runs created, and from there it dropped to Phillips (56 RC; 12 percent) and Scott Hatteberg (44 RC; 9 percent).

Dunn's critics cannot logically argue that he's a lousy RBI man unless they know how many guys are on base in front of him. And one thing the critics might not know is that of the top 10 RBI men in the NL, only two (Prince Fielder, 244 runners, and Miguel Cabrera, 238 runners) have done more with less than Dunn (246 runners). In contrast, Andruw Jones' 65 RBI are largely because of the 317 runners he has had on base in front of him - 29 percent more opportunities than Dunn has had.

The math: When it comes to run production, Hamilton (if he stays healthy) might be able to replace Dunn offensively.

But who would replace Hamilton? Hopper and Freel? Realistically, the two would account for 50 fewer runs than Dunn and Hamilton. The Reds might get as many as 15-20 of those runs back with improved defense in left field (removing Dunn's negative fielding and adding Hopper's "plus" fielding) and maybe you could add 10 more if Freel returned to 2006 form (a huge "if" because Freel is older than you think and hasn't been that good defensively in the outfield this year).

WHAT THE REDS SHOULD SEEK IN TRADE

If the Reds insist on trading Dunn, they must quickly "replace" his offense, whether it be from the trade itself or elsewhere (free agents, other trades, etc).

Whom should they pursue? A young, go-get-'em center fielder who is a better hitter than Freel/Hopper and a better glove than Hamilton, the statisticians say. That way, the Reds can move Hamilton to right field and move Griffey to left. That way, they will upgrade all three defensive positions and not lose as much offensively by trying to replace Dunn with Freel and Hopper.

But nothing says the Reds have to trade Dunn. And if they can't get at least 80 percent of his value, they shouldn't.

HOW KEN GRIFFEY JR. FITS IN

It would make more sense to trade Griffey than Dunn because Griffey's trade value is higher. But the Reds are understandably interested in keeping Griffey because of his drawing power.

In keeping him, they risk Griffey's offense dropping off next season because of his age and recent track record with injuries. Or course, there's no guarantee he'll drop off next year; the way he's played this year is reminding people just how special a player he is. But at some point, one has to start expecting decline from the 37-year-old Griffey - especially when you're a team trying to improve rather than trying to maintain the status quo. He's a perfect player for a team trying to get into the playoffs - he's very productive right now - but he isn't a perfect player for the Reds, who might have a tough time making the playoffs before 2009.

HOW JAY BRUCE FITS IN

The Reds prospect with the silver bullet might be outfielder Bruce - but probably not by next year. The Reds must be able to replace Dunn in 2008 if they expect to compete.

Reds acquire Cantu, Cumberland for Medlock, Shackelford

Today the Reds announced a trade involving four minor leaguers. Let's look at what the Reds got and then at what we gave up:

What the Reds Got

Jorge Cantu - 25 yrs, RHB, 1B/2B/3B
Cantu's an interesting player if there ever was one. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Devil Rays at age 17 in 1998, he progressed fairly quickly through their minor leagues given his age, and made the somewhat surprising from high-A Durham to the big league club in 2004 (he had reached AA by age 19, but never hit well enough to stick). Surprisingly, despite the huge jump in levels, Cantu held his own while with the big league club...and then surprised even more with a strong 2005 season in which he hit 28 home runs while maintaining an 0.286 average.

It's been downhill from there. Injuries held him back a bit last season, though he showed big drop-offs in performance when he did play. And this season has been a nightmare. He lost his second base job to B.J. Upton and was sent to AAA to start the season, but then was called up--and very rarely used--for two months following Akinori Iwamura's injury. He's been in AAA for only about a week after being optioned on July 20.

Offense:

Year/Team	Age	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	SBRns	RC
2004/TB-A+	22	391	16%	4%	---	0.312	0.302	0.335	0.576	0.274	0.911	---	0.5	67
2004/TB	22	185	24%	5%	23%	0.391	0.301	0.341	0.462	0.162	0.803	0.670	0.0	26
2005/TB	23	630	13%	3%	21%	0.289	0.286	0.311	0.497	0.211	0.808	0.831	0.2	84
2006/TB-AA	24	33	27%	3%	---	0.190	0.194	0.212	0.387	0.194	0.599	---	0.0	2
2006/TB	24	448	20%	6%	20%	0.283	0.249	0.295	0.404	0.155	0.699	0.753	-0.3	46
2007/TB-AAA	25	99	21%	8%	---	0.304	0.244	0.303	0.356	0.111	0.659	---	0.0	10
2007/TB	25	65	25%	8%	19%	0.279	0.207	0.277	0.224	0.017	0.501	0.622	0.0	4

2005 was Cantu's best season in his still-young career. He showed excellent power, especially for someone spending a lot of time at second base. But his OBP was woeful, reflecting the fact that he walked in only 3% of his at-bats. This greatly reduced his overall value, and is somewhat reminiscent of what we see from Brandon Phillips--though even Phillips walks 4-6% of the time. Even so, his batting average and power allowed him to contribute 80-some runs to the ballclub, which is nothing to scoff at.

In 2006, even when he was able to play, Cantu was a shadow of his former self. His strikeout rate rose by 50%, which severely affected his batting average. At the same time, his power production also dropped, with his isolated power falling by 0.056 points. PrOPS indicates that he may have been a bit unlucky, as does his BABIP, which is a bit lower than you'd expect from someone with a 19.5% line drive rate. But the same thing could be said for his 2005 campaign, so that clearly wasn't the main problem. The one silver lining is that his walk rate doubled.

He has basically been riding the bench all season, so there's not much we can say about his numbers this year--though he has not hit well. Still, comparing his '05 and '06 numbers, I almost wonder if an effort to become more patient also resulted in Cantu being less able to avoid the strikeout, and that's what has killed his value. Therefore, it's possible that a key to his future success might be being more aggressive--and less patient--at the plate.

Defense (UZR data--2007 data through first half):

Year	pos	expOuts	runs_range	runs_fldErr	runs_othErr	runs_total	G	runs/150G
2007	1B	6	-1	0	0	-1	5	-21
2004	2B	82	-2	-1	0	-3	33	-13
2005	2B	176	-9	-1	0	-10	71	-20
2006	2B	246	-23	-2	0	-25	100	-37
2004	3B	25	0	-1	0	-1	13	-9
2005	3B	115	-17	-2	-1	-20	62	-49

The short of it is that Cantu has been a liability in the field at both second base and third. He makes errors at a high rate, and has shown bad range at both positions. Splitting time between these two positions in '05, he cost the Rays about 30 runs overall, which severely cuts into the 84 he generated on offense. Last season, he cost the Rays about 25 runs at second base in less playing time, while only contributing 46 with the bat. Yikes.

The Devil Rays have apparently tried to move him to first base to better hide his defense. The problem with doing this is that he goes from being a potentially plus-hitting middle infielder to a below-average hitter at first base. Rosecrans reports that he has played some outfield in the past, so left field might also be a destination that might work for the kid. But replacement level in left field is only slightly lower than replacement level at first base, so that doesn't help him much either.

Tidbit: Cantu apparently has his own blog, but he hasn't updated it since last August.

Shaun Cumberland, 23 yrs, LHB OF
Shaun was drafted in the 10th round of the 2003 draft out of high school, and has steadily risen through the Devil Rays farm system. Unfortunately, he hasn't really hit even reasonably well since 2004:

Year/Team	Age	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	SBRns	RC
2004/TB-A-	20	176	13%	6%	---	0.379	0.329	0.375	0.439	0.110	0.814	---	1.1	28
2005/TB-A	21	481	21%	8%	---	0.317	0.268	0.326	0.422	0.154	0.748	---	0.3	62
2006/TB-A+	22	571	23%	7%	---	0.316	0.258	0.319	0.396	0.138	0.715	---	0.9	70
2007/TB-AA	23	382	18%	7%	---	0.290	0.251	0.306	0.359	0.108	0.665	---	-2.7	36

...and even in 2004, his BABIP was unusually high, indicating that much if not all of that 0.375 OBP he showed was the result of luck. From 2005 onward, his fairly high strikeout rates have kept his batting average down, and he hasn't walked enough to compensate. On the positive side, he showed some modest power in '05...but has since seen that power drop each of the last two seasons. Cumberland also is fairly fast, as evidenced by the 20+ steals he posted in '05 and '06, but he has been caught enough to keep those steals from being much of a net positive (SBRns above is the estimated runs contributed by SB's and CS's, granting 0.175 runs for a successful steal, and deducting 0.467 runs for a getting caught--run values are from The Book). This year, his attempted steal rate has dropped significantly, as has his success rate--maybe he's had a leg injury or something? I haven't checked.

What the Reds gave up.

Calvin Medlock, 24 yrs, RHP Reliever
Medlock was the Reds' 39th-round selection in the 2002 amateur draft out of Junior College. He's not a particularly big kid (5'10", 195 lbs), and obviously wasn't thought of that highly when he was drafted. But he has done nothing but excel since he signed.

Team	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	R/9	ERA	FIP	BABIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/CIN-A	21	94.2	10.6	2.0	0.5	3.15	2.57	2.20	0.285	4.37	17.3	--
2004/STL-A+	21	46.2	9.0	4.3	1.6	7.01	6.36	4.89	0.301	8.31	-12.6	--
2005/CIN-A+	22	108.2	8.2	1.8	0.5	3.49	3.06	2.72	0.295	4.27	15.6	38%
2006/CIN-AA	23	63.2	10.0	4.0	0.6	3.42	2.97	3.14	0.306	4.72	8.6	49%
2007/CIN-AA	24	47.2	11.3	1.0	0.6	2.67	2.64	1.84	---	---	---	---
2007/CIN-AAA	24	14.0	10.9	8.4	0.0	6.43	6.43	3.56	---	---	---	---

Medlock has been a consistent strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, be it in the rotation ('04 and '05) or in the bullpen ('06 and '07). He also has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park, though that looks, on the surface, to be more a function of his strikeouts than of being a particularly good at inducing ground balls (though my data are limited on that). His control has been more spotty. Last year, his walk rate was a bit high, but the previous season and this season (in AA, at least), he his walk rates have been outstanding.

All in all, he looks like a very solid relief prospect to me, at least based strictly on his numbers. And based on the reports in Baseball Prospectus's Annual that he can deal in the 90's, and complement it with a good change-up, the stuff sounds like it's there too. So it seems quite likely that Medlock could compete for a spot in a major league bullpen next spring, especially if he can get his recent control issues straightened out in his next outing or two.

Brian Shackelford, 31 yrs, LHP Reliever
Shack was drafted out of the University of Oklahoma in 1994 by the Florida Marlins in the 21st round as an outfielder, but made the switch to pitching in 2002 after he failed to master hitting above low-A ball. The Reds picked him up along with Jeff Austin for a pair of minor leaguers the following March, and he's been pitching in their system ever since.

Team	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	R/9	ERA	FIP	BABIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/CIN-AAA	28	73.0	7.8	5.2	0.7	3.82	3.58	4.27	0.263	5.28	13.0	--
2005/CIN-AAA	29	32.2	5.9	2.8	0.3	5.31	5.23	3.23	0.333	3.94	0.7	57%
2005/CIN	29	29.2	5.2	2.8	0.6	2.77	2.43	3.85	0.226	4.79	9.1	45%
2006/CIN-AAA	30	29.2	7.1	4.3	0.0	1.85	1.82	3.06	0.326	4.30	9.1	46%
2006/CIN	30	16.1	8.4	5.6	2.2	7.27	7.16	6.43	0.292	6.31	-1.8	37%
2007/CIN-AAA	31	32.2	3.9	3.6	0.0	5.59	4.96	3.54	---	---	---	---

Shackelford became a fan favorite in 2005 when he came up mid-season and did a nice job as a situational left-hander. Unfortunately, he never ranked high enough on the depth charts to get much playing time last year or this year, though I argued for using him instead of Cormier about this time last year.

Overall, Shackelford has shown average to below average strikeout and walk rates, though he typically does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park--he hasn't allowed a home run the minor leagues since 2005! Unfortunately, he's getting a bit long in the tooth to be considered much of a prospect, and this year has shown a dramatic drop in his strikeout rates. So how much longer he can be useful has to be considered in doubt.

Additional aspects to this deal
The Reds apparently do receive some cash in this deal, which I'm sure is at least enough to offset Cantu's league-minimum salary. Furthermore, the Devil Rays are to receive "future considerations," which could potentially mean another player at some point.

My Take
I don't see much of anything to be excited about with Cumberland, so Cantu is the only booty here. And the most attractive thing about him is that he is still young, and already has shown decent performance in the major leagues in the past. So maybe he'll somehow put it together and be a nice source of power off the bench or as a part-time starter. Unfortunately, his defense at 2B and 3B has been atrocious, which means that his future probably lies at either first base or left field. And at those positions, his power-only offense looks, at best, average...and probably well below average. Still, in a limited role, I can see him proving useful.

In terms of the cost that it took to get him, I can't get too upset about losing Shackelford. But Medlock seems to me to be a legitimate contender for a bullpen spot next year, and goodness knows they could use some new arms out there. He still might not have made the staff out of spring training next year, but he absolutely would have represented some quality organizational depth as we opened the season.

So I don't like this deal very much. It's not that I hate Cantu or even that I see this as a lopsided deal in terms of the talent being exchanged. The issue I have is that Medlock is precisely the kind of player that I'd like to see the Reds hoarding right now--he's young, clearly has some talent, and could provide a boost to the bullpen as early as next season. I'm not saying that the kid is a future closer by any means. But it won't surprise me if he's performing well in a middle relief or set up role in the near future. And that's clearly something that the Reds need. Furthermore, it bugs me that this deal seems to be have moved the Reds away from, not toward, the goal of improved pitching and defense, even if only a small amount.

But I'm not going to get that upset about it either...in the grand scheme of things, it's a pretty small deal, and probably isn't going to make or break the Reds now or in the future.

As long as the Reds don't go and do something stupid like start Cantu in front of Encarnacion or Votto, of course.