I was thinking about this Linebrink deal, in which the Padres netted talented pitching prospect Will Inman, among others.
Linebrink has been very good out of the pen over the last many years with San Diego. But there's a way in which this deal reminds me of the Cormier deal last year. I'm not the only one either, though Nate Silver's comparison is a bit more harsh. Here are Linebrink's peripherals over the past four years:
2004 (28 yrs) - 9.9 k/9, 3.1 bb/9, 0.95 hr/9, 32% GB
2005 (29 yrs) - 9.3 k/9, 3.1 bb/9, 0.53 hr/9, 38% GB
2006 (30 yrs) - 8.4 k/9, 2.7 bb/9, 1.11 hr/9, 39% GB
2007 (31 yrs) - 5.2 k/9, 2.9 bb/9, 1.88 hr/9, 39% GB
Ok, so the surge in his homer rate might just be a matter of being lucky earlier in his career, as he's consistently been a fly ball pitcher in his career. But his strikeout rate was waaay down this year after a modest drop the year before. In case you're wondering, here's his ERA, FIP, and BABIP over those seasons:
Year - ERA - FIP - BABIP
2004 - 2.14 - 3.17 - 0.257
2005 - 1.83 - 2.56 - 0.265
2006 - 3.56 - 3.76 - 0.285
2007 - 3.80 - 5.64 - 0.234
From everything I'm seeing here, Linebrink has declined this year, even though his ERA has barely shifted--mostly thanks to that shiny 0.234 BABIP this season. If I was a Brewers' fan, I'd be hoping that Melvin has some really good scouting data that is leading him to believe that the strikeout rate will get back up to its levels last year...or else the Brewers may have just given away a fine prospect--plus two other players--for a guy that is substantially worse that the relievers they already have. Will Carroll says that they're banking on pitching coach Mike Maddux's ability to repair pitchers--I wish them luck, but needless to say, I'm a bit skeptical.
Edit: Apparently, Linebrink is a Class-A free agent. That shifts the deal a bit more back in Melvin's direction. But it may be that the two draft picks the Brewers receive when Linebrink leaves at the end of the year will be the primary benefit Milwaukee gets from this deal. Not really what you're looking for when you're trying to win your division.
How can they know that what class free agent Linebrink is? The season isn't over, and the class is calculated in October based on performance over the two previous seasons. Elias keeps their formulae a secret, but the one used for position players is reportedly based on less enlightened stats like RBI and hits, etc. I have to believe that saves are a big part of the formula for relievers, and if so Linebrink would have a tough time being ranked as a class A, in the top 30% of relievers.
ReplyDeleteYa got me. :) Maybe they have separate categories for closers and middle relievers?
ReplyDeleteBTW, do you have any sources on how free agents are determined, and when? I was looking for that recently, and all I've found is that class A free agents are in the top 20%, and class B are in the 20-40% (as of the new CBA--it used to be 30%).
It's a bit strange to me that MLB would allow such a big decision (where a free agent ranks) to be conducted behind closed doors by Elias. Is it just secret to the public, or is also kept from MLB?
-j
Aha - I didn't know that the new CBA revised the percentages. At least they didn't take compensation picks entirely out, as was first rumoured.
ReplyDeleteElias is very secretive about all that stuff, but I'd think that someone at MLB would be privy to those classified formulae. I think that making it public would only lead to criticism from people like us on how dumb the formulae are. Incidentally, they do release the result of the formula - just a raw number - for each free agent. So you can get an idea of how close a player is to the next group above and/or below.
The Elias list is released in late October, from what I have read.
I have found this information: "the Elias system is something agreed on by MLB and the PA. They just have Elias calculate them." And Nationals blog Capitol Punishment analyzing the concept of signing Dmitri Young says of Elias' formula, "they consider Plate Appearances, Batting Average, On-Base %, HR and RBI. They weigh each of those factors for what the player has done over the previous two seasons. I've heard that they pro-rate some of those stats for time missed on the DL, but I can't find any actual confirmation of that."
Also, the players are ranked in groups as follows:
ReplyDelete• [1B, DH, OF]
• [2B, SS, 3B]
• [C]
• [SP]
• [RP]
No separate category for middle relief and closers.