Table of Contents

Wednesday, July 25, 2007


I've been working on a lot of stuff related to the site lately, but unfortunately that hasn't resulted in as many posts here as I like. Here's some of what I've been up to:
  • Trying to master the techniques used to regress statistics to the mean, especially how to determine how much one should regress any particular stat, relearning things like intraclass correlation coefficients, etc.
  • Trying to apply those techniques to create detailed, regressed park factors that I'm working up for all MLB stadiums. I want to go beyond the typical runs and home runs park factors we see usually, and have them be more sophisticated that what is posted at ESPN.
  • Having some really interesting and in-depth e-mail conversations about which I'll be talking more about in the coming days.
  • Trying to keep track of all the trade rumors involving Reds players. ... And yet at the same time ignore them until we hear an official announcement.
  • Trying to remain calm as Jeff Keppinger--a guy I really like as a reserve infielder--is given AB's that should be going to the still-struggling and yet still very talented Edwin Encarnacion. I just don't get what the Reds are doing with that kid.
  • Reveling in the clutch-god that is the Latin Love Machine:

Photo by AP/David Kohl


  1. Justin, I figured this would be a nice place to tell you how much I enjoy your site. I read it just about everyday and I'm not a Reds fan (though I do generally root for them..). I'm looking forward to what you have coming up. Keep up the great work!

  2. On the bright side, Edwin is playing tonight. I am not sure I can think of another Red that has been jerked around as much as Edwin has been, that was generally acknowledged as a starter.

  3. Yeah...Kearns got some of the same treatment at times under Miley, though I'm not sure that he was ever really The Starter with Wily Mo hanging around as well.

    Kearns never really has shown his complete promise, and I'm amazed at how badly he's hit this season (0.251/0.332/0.369). Sometimes I wonder if the Reds were correct in being more skeptical of his future performance and thus their lack of commitment to him was justified?

    Or, alternatively, whether his handling by the Reds impaired his development as a player. Hard to know. -j

  4. I blame Ray King's large posterior for ruining Kearns's career. It may not be completely his fault, but it helps me sleep better at night.

    I posted this at Red Reporter, but I thought you might find it interesting too. When you compare Tony Perez's age 23-24 seasons with Edwin at the same age, there are a lot of similarities, especially when you put them in the same run environment:
    Perez (neutralized RE):
    23 - .262/.317/.468
    24 - .265/.305/.381

    Edwin (neutralized RE):
    23 - .259/.340/.446
    24 - .247/.324/.351

    Tony had more power, Edwin gets on base better, but other than that they really aren't that far off from each other. The point of this is to say that I really hope the Reds aren't giving up on Edwin at age 24, because it doesn't look like Perez was all that good at that point either. However, at age 25, Perez came out and had a great season. I don't know if Edwin will do that, but I hope the Reds don't screw him up so much that we don't get the chance to find out.

  5. I agree, Joel. Effing Ray King.

    Justin, I had hoped you'd provide an answer for the EE thing. If you can't figure it out, there's no hope. That whole situation pisses me off - and then you get d-bags like Hal McCoy piling on with cracks about EE being greedy (with his league-minimum salary - sure).

  6. Joel, great stuff--thanks.

    Chris, I thought that McCoy's comments were incredibly out of line. Encarnacion is from the freaking Dominican Republic. I don't know his personal background, but most of the kids from there are from families living in extreme poverty, and baseball is one of the few ways to find a better life. So yes, of course he's motivated--at least in part--by money. Those kids don't have the luxury of playing the game "just for the fun of it."

    Somehow fans think less of players who are motivated by the finances, but that, to me, indicates that he might take the game more seriously than some others. He certainly is all business out there--but isn't that what you want? Players who take the game seriously? -j

  7. Screw Hal McCoy and Screw Marty and Thom.

    Those guys are all the most opinionated, yet more often than not, uninformed loud mouths around. They drive me nuts. I can't even listen to the radio anymore because I literally start screaming at it whenever Marty or Thom start talking about something.

  8. For what it's worth, I just received a courteous response from Hal about an e-mail I sent him regarding the issues associated with calling Dominican players greedy. He didn't exactly concede the point, but he did acknowledge that it might have been a poor choice of words.