Pythagorean Standings - As of 7/18/07 | ||||
National League East | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
NYN | 50 | 0.532 | 0 | 1st |
ATL | 48 | 0.505 | 2.5 | 2nd, 2.5 out |
PHI | 47 | 0.500 | 3 | 3rd, 5 out |
FLA | 44 | 0.463 | 6.5 | 4th, 7.5 out |
WAS | 36 | 0.383 | 14 | 5th, 13 out |
National League Central | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
CHN | 52 | 0.559 | 0 | 2nd, 3.5 out |
MIL | 51 | 0.543 | 1.5 | 1st |
CIN | 45 | 0.474 | 8 | 5th, 13.5 out |
HOU | 42 | 0.442 | 11 | 5th, 13.5 out |
STL | 39 | 0.429 | 12 | 3rd, 8.5 out |
PIT | 39 | 0.415 | 13.5 | 4th, 13 out |
National League West | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
SD | 55 | 0.591 | 0 | 2nd, 1 out |
LAN | 52 | 0.547 | 4 | 1st |
COL | 47 | 0.500 | 8.5 | 4th, 5.5 out |
SF | 44 | 0.478 | 10.5 | 5th, 13.5 out |
ARI | 45 | 0.469 | 11.5 | 3rd, 4.5 out |
American League East | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
BOS | 56 | 0.596 | 0 | 1st |
NYA | 54 | 0.587 | 1 | 2nd, 7 out |
TOR | 47 | 0.500 | 9 | 3rd, 11 out |
BAL | 46 | 0.489 | 10 | 4th, 14 out |
TB | 35 | 0.376 | 20.5 | 5th, 18.5 out |
American League Central | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
DET | 56 | 0.609 | 0 | 1st |
CLE | 52 | 0.553 | 5 | 2nd, 2 out |
MIN | 51 | 0.543 | 6 | 3rd, 8 out |
KC | 44 | 0.468 | 13 | 5th, 16 out |
CHA | 40 | 0.430 | 16.5 | 4th, 14.5 out |
American League West | ||||
Team | Wins | W% | Games Back | Real position |
LAA | 51 | 0.548 | 0 | 1st |
OAK | 49 | 0.516 | 3 | 3rd, 11 out |
SEA | 47 | 0.511 | 3.5 | 2nd, 1.5 out |
TEX | 43 | 0.457 | 8.5 | 4th, 14.5 out |
In two cases, the NL Central and the NL West, the top two teams are reversed. Otherwise, the leaders are maintained, though some teams look closer or further from contention than they actually are. Pythagorean Wild Card leaders are currently the Dodgers over the Brewers in the National League, and the Yankees over the Indians in the American League.
There's a sense in which these standings are irrelevant, of course, as these games have already been played and the wins/losses determined. Nevertheless, all things being equal, we can probably expect teams to regress toward their Pythagorean records over the course of the rest of this season. So as a follow-up, I was interested in seeing which teams were helped and hurt the most by the reality of playing actual games (as opposed to just scoring and allowing runs). Because teams play against one another, I opted to compare actual Games Back with the Games Back according to the above Pythagorean standings.
Here are the differences (positive values indicate teams that are doing better than predicted, whereas negative values indicate teams that are doing worse than expected):
Team | ExpGB-ActualGB |
ARI | 7 |
LAN | 4 |
STL | 3.5 |
COL | 3 |
CLE | 3 |
TB | 2 |
CHA | 2 |
SEA | 2 |
MIL | 1.5 |
WAS | 1 |
PIT | 0.5 |
NYN | 0 |
ATL | 0 |
BOS | 0 |
DET | 0 |
LAA | 0 |
FLA | -1 |
SD | -1 |
PHI | -2 |
TOR | -2 |
MIN | -2 |
HOU | -2.5 |
SF | -3 |
KC | -3 |
CHN | -3.5 |
BAL | -4 |
CIN | -5.5 |
NYA | -6 |
TEX | -6 |
OAK | -8 |
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Oakland is about eight games behind where they "should be" in their division, thanks to an "overperforming" Angels ballclub and an A's team that is four games below expectations. Interestingly for the New York/Boston-centered sports media, the Yankees also show up as being much worse than run differentials predict, one game behind the Red Sox according to Pythagoras--and that's all on the Yanks, as Boston is spot-on with their predicted record. Other top "unlucky"/"underperforming" teams include the Rangers, Reds, Orioles, and Cubs.
It will be interesting to compare these predicted standings to actual standings at the end of the season. My guess is that teams will be ranked closer to their present Pythagorean standings than their present actual standings.
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