Hamilton, Duran, and a few other links

A few news stories that caught my eye...

The Rangers Heart Josh Hamilton

Let me know when this starts to sound familiar...

But after working with Hamilton this spring, Rudy Jaramillo noted, “This kid is off the charts when it comes to the complete package of talent.”

Manager Ron Washington, a baseball lifer, dealt with some immense talent that came through the A’s system. “For having all the skills, I never saw one like Josh,” he said. “He has all the somethings you are looking for. Now we’ve got to find out what it all means.”

..."I’ve never worked with anyone who can hit a baseball as far as Josh can,” said Jaramillo, “and I’ve had some big bombers along the way. Just nothing like him.”

Rangers catcher Gerald Laird was speaking of Hamilton on Tuesday, and he was stuck for the proper description. “I see him do something, and go, ‘Wow.’ About five times a day, I say, ‘Wow.’”

I'm going to miss Josh. I sure hope that Volquez is able to turn into something, because I have little doubt that we lost something big with Hamilton. Yeah, he's already 27, but he still should have three-four years of outstanding performance left in him if he can stay healthy. Hat tip: BBTF

Reds Shell Out Big Bucks for Dominican Kid

From Baseball America (for free), with a hat tip to Doug:

The international signing period is still four months away, but the Reds have already made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a $2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Juan Duran, a player who many thought would not be eligible to sign until July 2.
...
"His body and offensive ability stick out like a sore thumb," Arias said. "In batting practice, he was just hitting them over the trees in our complex, hitting them out to center and right-center field. You can tell just tell from the way the ball jumps off his bat.
"I've never seen a 16-year-old with this type of ability. I talked to some people in the Dominican Republic who crossed paths with Vladimir Guerrero at that age, guys who have been scouting in the Dominican for more than 20 years, and they said they've never come into contact with a bat like this. He's got 80 power potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and just gets tremendous loft.

I wrote this at Doug's site:

This strikes me as something the Reds absolutely should be doing. Maybe he’ll never amount to a hill of beans. But $2 million now, given how much scouts like him, gives the Reds a chance at a huge payout 4-5 years down the road. In contrast, they’d only get about a half-win better investing that money into MLB free agents. So bravo Cinci. :)

It also can’t help but be a good thing to make a splash like this for their operations moving forward down there. The Reds have never been a place that signs the top prospects down in the D.R., or anywhere else on the international scene for that matter. Hopefully this will give them a better shot at competing with teams like the Yankees in the international free agent market moving forward…

What changes do you want to see in MLB?

Tango links to an interesting roundtable discussion asking about changes that we'd like to see in baseball. Tango touches on the issue of hooking kids early in his comments about the questions. Two thoughts on that:

1. Too many games, particularly in the playoffs, don't start until much too late at night. How in the world am I going to share the excitement of the postseason with my kid if most games start after her bedtime?

2. I like the idea of trying to reduce the number of pickoff throws, as well as other events (like stepping out of the box) that slow the game down and make it harder to get into as a non-fan. For example, I'd support making a pickoff throw equivalent to a pitchout (i.e. a ball is called) on counts of less than three balls. I also would advocate not permitting hitters to call time out, provided that pitchers were on some kind of clock with respect to how quickly they delivered the pitch.

Bruce vs. Rasmus

John Sickels did a point-by-point comparison of Jay Bruce and the Cardinals' Coby Rasmus on Monday. That outfielder rivalry could be a pretty exciting rivalry to watch in the NL Central, as both are breaking into the big leagues at about the same time.

Bruce won the "smackdown," though not overwhelmingly so. Rasmus seems to have an edge on defense, in particular, which, of course, tends to be underrated...

Help me help you!

Speaking of Jay Bruce, while this is a few weeks old, I found this post regarding his agent to be pretty interesting. I don't know if that was a paid endorsement or not. But I think it's revealing to get this kind of peek into how players interact with their agents in Real Life.

Erardi, Gajus, and Luckhaupt do it again

John Erardi has once again solicited the help of some of the top minds in the Reds fanbase to put together an interesting article (actually, there's about 10 of them, but you can get to them from that link) about the Reds' chances this year. I thought they did a really fine job of it, so I thought I'd pass on my congrats. Unfortunately, the article was literally being put together while I was away interviewing for that job last month, so I couldn't participate. Obviously, they didn't need me! :)

Also interesting was Daugherty's counter article, which has been thoroughly torn to shreds by at FJM (though frankly I couldn't get through their entire mean-spirited rebuttal). Greg Gajus appears on Doc's show tomorrow night, so I'll try to listen via XM Radio...though there's a way in which appearing on that show is kind of like appearing on the O'Reilly Factor.

Daugherty was reasonably respectful to Joel after the last big article, at least when talking to him in person. Given the response to Daugherty's article around the internets, I'm not sure that Gajus is going to be received quite as warmly...

Adios, Sergio Valenzuela

So, today the Reds sold Sergio Valenzuela back to the Braves for $25k, meaning that they're down a net $25k from that Rule 5 selection.

It's one thing when Rule 5 picks don't work out. They're always a gamble--after all, they require you to keep someone on your 25-man roster all season who didn't even make the 40-man roster on another team.

But this one looked ridiculous to almost every single observer from day one. Here's my initial take on it (to say I was giving Krivsky the benefit of the doubt is an understatement). And I'll again quote Kevin Goldstein:

6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta’s Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he’s got plus velocity, but he’s not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he’s going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?
Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?

Ah, well.

The annoyance here isn't really the $25k that the Reds wasted. After all, they made $50k when the Ray stook Guevara in the same draft. The issue is the loss of a borderline relief pitching prospect (Guevara) in the draft to make room for Valenzuela, as well as the lost opportunity to select someone else who had a chance to do something for the Reds this season. So, bleh.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

The other signing yesterday was veteran infielder/outfielder Jerry Hairston Jr. Hairston is part of an outstanding baseball family: his grandfather, Sammy, had a cup of coffee with the White Sox in 1951, while his father played for 14 big league seasons as a reserve outfielder. Furthermore, Jerry's younger brother, Scott, is currently with the San Diego Padres.

Hairston is also notable because of his associations with allegations of human growth hormone use. His name, along with a photocopy of a personal check made out to Kirk Radomski, who claimed he supplied Hairston with HGH, appeared in George Mitchell's report in December. He also was implicated as among those players who had purchased HGH from an online pharmacy, though he vehemently denied those allegations. To my knowledge, he has not yet addressed the Radomski allegations.

Back to baseball...Hairston was Baltimore's 11th round selection out of Southern Illinois University in the 1997 draft. He moved up quickly, getting his first taste of the big leagues in 1998, and ultimately securing the starting gig at second base with the Orioles in 2000. In the minors, he showed good doubles power to go with his plus speed. But unfortunately, he never hit for any kind of power in the major leagues, relying on his on base percentage to provide value to his club. In the end, after a few years as a starter with the O's, Hairston has settled into a reserve utility role.

Recent stats:

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	SBRuns	R/G	RAR
2005	29	CHC	430	11%	7%	23%	0.282	0.261	0.336	0.368	0.107	0.704	-2.803	4.4	8.6
2006	30	TOT	192	18%	7%	12%	0.245	0.206	0.270	0.253	0.047	0.523	-0.059	2.0	-9.3
2007	31	TEX	184	13%	6%	14%	0.189	0.189	0.249	0.289	0.100	0.538	0.408	2.2	-8.0
3yrs	---	---	806	13%	7%	19%	0.252	0.231	0.293	0.323	0.092	0.616	-2.454	3.2	-8.6

It's hard to look at his numbers the past few years and see much reason for optimism moving forward. Entering his age-32 season, Hairston is showing a fairly typical aging curve for a borderline talent. He seemed to peak in 2004 at age 28 (0.378 OBP), and then he quickly fell off. His performances the last two seasons have been dreadful, especially when one considers that he played half his games in Arlington--a fairly severe hitters park (5-year regressed park factor=1.05). Last season, his BABIP was unusually low, but his line drive rate was such that one wonders if he's making any kind of hard contact any more. Even his speed has been unimpressive--particularly his 8 for 17 success rate in 2005 when playing for Dusty Baker.

On the positive side, I guess I could say that he does walk more often that Brandon Phillips or Corey Patterson, while keeping his strikeouts at a reasonable level. ... but that's not enough to make someone worth plugging into a lineup.

Fielding

Hairston is a versatile fielder, having logged substantial numbers of MLB innings at second base and all three outfield positions. His 2003-2007 UZR totals put him at +3 runs/season at 2B, +16 runs/season in LF, -2 runs/season in CF, and +0 runs/season in right field. Altogether, including position adjustments, that pegs him as about a +3 fielder at a neutral position (like second or third base).

The Fans Scouting Report hasn't been quite as generous. While they had him well above average in 2004, his ratings have been routinely a tick below average the past three seasons (typically 1-3 runs below average). I think what we may be seeing here is an indication that he may have a lost a step as he's aged.

Money Matters

He's on a minor league deal, of course, so he's essentially "free." And unlike Corey Patterson, I'm not sure that he's likely to make more than league minimum ($400k) if he makes the team, or more likely, gets called up mid-season as an injury replacement. But is he even worth 400k?

In terms of projections...he's averaged below-replacement level hitting the past three years, and the most optimistic fielding estimate would have him as an average defender, accounting for position adjustments. We also should deduct a half-win or so for aging.

So, we're essentially looking at someone who projects as a sub-replacement level performer. It's fine to have more warm bodies in camp and all, but he ranks well below guys like Paul Janish, Jerry Gil, Chris Dickerson, etc, on my depth list. And even then, the Reds should be able to acquire someone for almost zero cost who can provide more value than Hairston. I don't mind giving the guy a chance in the spring, but unless Dusty is feeling incredibly loyal to his old player, I'd project that we're unlikely to ever see the guy in a Reds uniform after March.

Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Wireimage

Corey Patterson

Tonight, the Reds signed 28 year old LHB outfielder Corey Patterson to a minor league deal and invited him to compete for a job on the ballclub. The move is something of a surprise, given the already-thick competition for the center field job between Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, and Jay Bruce. Nevertheless, Patterson is an intriguing player, and one who might provide surprisingly good value for the Reds.

Patterson has a very rich pedigree. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 1998 draft out of Harrison High School in Kennesaw, Georgia. He skyrocketed through the minor leagues, making his major league debut at 20 years old, and played his first full season at age 22 in 2002. Scouts absolutely adored his combination of power and speed. Unfortunately, as John Sickels might put it, his skills never caught up with his talent.

Here are his recent stats:

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	SBRuns	R/G	RAR
2005	25	CHC	481	25%	5%	18%	0.258	0.215	0.254	0.348	0.133	0.602	0.29	2.9	-9.2
2006	26	BAL	498	19%	4%	21%	0.309	0.276	0.314	0.443	0.167	0.757	3.672	5.4	21.4
2007	27	BAL	503	13%	4%	15%	0.286	0.269	0.304	0.386	0.117	0.690	2.272	4.4	10.2
3yrs	---	---	1482	19%	4%	18%	0.285	0.254	0.286	0.393	0.139	0.679	6.234	4.2	22.4

Looking at this 3-year line, you can immediately see where a lot of his troubles lie. He strikes out at a pretty high clip (19%, on average), which prevents him from having a high batting average. At the same time, he doesn't walk at all. High strikeouts + low walks = zero OBP. His power also hasn't been overwhelming either, though it was respectable enough in 2006 (and '03 and '04). The one silver lining is that when Patterson does get on, he's been superb on the bases the past few years--few players net more than two runs in stolen bases a year, and Patterson has averaged more than that over the past three years.

Krivsky cited a decline in Corey's tendency to strike out as a reason for optimism, and his K-numbers did show a dramatic improvement from 2005-2007. He didn't see a corresponding improvement in his batting average last season, but that is apparently due to the drop in his line drive percentage. Assuming that the two aren't related--and they could be if he's now swinging weakly and just trying to make contact--he might yet be improving. Also, moving from a slight pitcher's park (Camden) to a slight hitter's park (GABP) might result in a nice surge in his numbers. Patterson's not young anymore, but he's not old either, and the guy is Darn Talented. Those guys can surprise (see Phillips, Brandon).

On the other hand, people have been predicting improvements from Patterson since 2002, with little to show for it. So, forecasting improvements this season is hard to do. FWIW, PECOTA isn't particularly optimistic, though there is an enormous range between his 90th and 10th percentile projections...

Fielding

Despite his offensive woes, Patterson does have a reputation as a plus fielder. His 2003-2007 average per 150 G according to UZR is a fine +13 in center field. The Fans Scouting Report had him at +0.5 wins/season in center field last year. ZR and RZR had him about average in '07, but I'm not crazy about either of those stats when assessing CF's. Dan Fox's SFR stat (which includes throwing arm) from 2003-2007 has him at +16.3 runs, or ~+3 runs/season, with a big spike of +12.9 runs in 2006.

The safe thing is probably to assume that he's a +0.5 wins fielder in center. That corresponds to his Fans rating, and is also the approximate average between the various objective metrics cited above. That also would rank him as arguably the best defensive center fielder on the ballclub...

Money Matters

I can't find anything about the sort of deal that Patterson might get if he makes the ballclub. It might be that he'd only make the league-minimum 400k. But my guess is that he'll make a tad above that (perhaps with incentives), though not more than a few million.

What is he worth? Well, on offense, he's averaged ~7.5 runs above replacement per season, or ~0.8 wins. Fielding-wise, I have him at +0.5 wins. He gains a half-win in value for playing a premium defensive position (center field), which puts him at ~1.8 wins above replacement overall.

I'm torn about whether to deduct a half-win for aging, as 28 is still within a player's prime years. So, let's just project his value as a range of between 1.3-1.8 wins above a replacement player. Such a player, as a free agent, should be worth ~$5.8-7.9 million per year, so the Reds are in for a nice value here.

Nevertheless, 2 wins above replacement is about what we'd expect from an average ballplayer, and most starters are approximately average or better players. Therefore, Patterson's suitability for a starting job is questionable. Then again, I'm not sure that Freel or Hopper can be counted on to be an average ballplayer next season either, so I can see Patterson taking the starting job--and if not, certainly making the club as a reserve outfielder.

The X-factor in all of this is Jay Bruce. He has already been raising eyebrows with his early spring training performance, and he may well play himself onto the ballclub. That would shift Freel and Hopper to reserve roles...and I have a hard time seeing how either of those guys won't be on the club come opening day. Given how packed the Reds' roster already is, what happens with Jay Bruce may be the biggest factor affecting Patterson's future with the Reds.

I'll try to take a look at Hairston in the next few days...he's a bit less interesting of a case, at least initially.

Employment

No, I'm not talking about this job with the Pirates, though if I could program worth a lick I might have been tempted to apply. It's exactly the kind of thing I'm excited about in baseball research right now--the integration of scouting and more traditional sabermetrics.

Anyway, today I received an offer for a position that's pretty damn close to my dream job. It was the interview I went on last week, and referenced here and here. I'm very excited about it. I don't really want to get into details here, but I can assure you that it has absolutely nothing to do with baseball. :)

What this means for the blog is that I am likely to be very busy until June/Julyish or so, because I need to finish this here de-gree before I can start the new position in August. And while I was going to be busy over that stretch anyway, this thing serves as a big time motivator to get my stuff done.

I will continue to try to keep this blog active. But I do anticipate that my postings might become more intermittent, and perhaps a bit more like this kind of thing (which was pretty quick to put together), and less like this kind of thing (which was a major investment of time and thought). It probably also means that my historical Reds project will have to wait for now...just can't devote the neural pathways to it.

But we'll see--you never know how it will go, and I might get a few nights off here and there to work on this stuff. Hopefully the site will continue to be a place worth visiting. But if the quality declines a bit, you'll know why. :)

Oh, and I received my copy of the Hardball Times Season Preview today. It's much improved over last year's version, and I hope that you folks will check it out. It was a lot of fun being involved in putting it together again this year.

Josh Fogg

Today, the Reds signed 31-year old righthander Josh Fogg to a 1-year, $1 million contract. Fogg was originally a 3rd-round selection by the Chicago White Sox in the 1998 amateur draft out of the University of Florida. He had an impressive debut at 25 with the Pirates, but otherwise has had a fairly invisible career through mid-last year.

Then, Fogg made headlines in September and October by pitching during the Rockies' amazing postseason run, including the one-game playoff against the San Diego Padres for the wild card berth (which, unfortunately, turned out to be the best game of the playoffs). Fogg earned his nickname "Dragon Slayer" by besting several top pitchers in September, including Brandon Webb, Chris Young, and Derek Lowe, while also holding his own against Brad Penny. He also pitched an impressive Game 3 in the NLCS before losing Game 3 of the World Series in spectacular fashion.

Fogg turned down a $5 million contract offer by the Rockies this offseason thinking he could get more on the market, but ultimately settled for a $1 million deal with the Reds. As he put it, "the offseason didn't go like a lot of free agents planned." Apparently, teams are unwilling to shell out the cash for sub-Carlos Silva starters these days.

Recent Stats:

Year	Age	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OBPa	SLGa	OPSa	R/G	RAR	FIPRuns
2005	28	PIT	169.3	4.5	2.8	1.4	40.8%	0.296	5.05	5.13	0.344	0.480	0.824	5.6	7.4	7.2
2006	29	COL	172.0	4.9	3.1	1.3	42.5%	0.313	5.49	5.03	0.356	0.504	0.860	5.1	23.7	20.5
2007	30	COL	165.7	5.1	3.2	1.2	40.0%	0.308	4.94	5.21	0.357	0.495	0.852	5.2	16.2	12.8
3years	---	---	507.0	4.8	3.1	1.3	41.1%	0.305	5.17	5.09	0.352	0.493	0.845	5.3	47.4	40.5

Fogg's numbers aren't particularly impressive. Below-average strikeouts, average walks, and above-average home runs allowed. He's largely a fly ball pitcher, though he isn't as extreme as some. Ultimately, though, a combination of high fly ball rates and low strikeout rates will result in lots of home runs allowed, which is reflected in his numbers (though remember he pitched in Coors the last few years). The only silver lining to all of this is that he's pitched almost exclusively as a starter for most of his career...so we can ballpark that he might have turned in a 4.2ish ERA if he'd been in the bullpen the last three years. That's decent enough.

Josh Kalk's pitchf/x card on Fogg confirms that he's a soft-tosser (88 mph fastball), but that he also throws a sinker, slider, and change-up. Top comparables in terms of pitch types and action include Mark Redman, Claudio Vargas, and Phil Dumatrait. Here's a figure showing his pitches from Kalk's site:
Projections and value

Based on my RAR and FIPRuns estimates, both of which are park corrected, Fogg has averaged ~14-16 runs above replacement per season over the past several years. So, we can call him a ~+1.5 win pitcher over that time frame.

Projecting into next season, I'll subtract a half-win for aging and such, and assume he remains in the rotation. That puts him at +1 wins in 2008, which would value him at $4.4 million. Pretty nice pickup for just $1 million.

Of course, the groan from fans is likely to be that we now could potentially start the season with this rotation:

Harang
Arroyo
Fogg
Belisle
Affeldt

And meanwhile, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and Maloney could all start the season in AAA.

I tend to think that this will not happen. My guess is that Bailey will need to pitch badly in spring training to not make the club. Affeldt's chances of making the rotation may be reduced as long as Bill Bray is unable to pitch. I'm also thinking that Belisle's spot is a bit more tenuous now that Fogg is in the picture, as he's no longer the only guy around with experience in the back end of the rotation.

Overall, my personal ranking of the starting candidates prior to playing any spring training games is: Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, Volquez, Fogg, Affeldt, Cueto, and Maloney. The latter two are placed where they are simply because they've thrown so few innings above AA. I also rank Volquez and Fogg very close to one another going into this season, though Volquez clearly has the higher upside. It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Even if it is the case that we do see the above rotation to start the year, I'm going to try not to freak out. That rotation won't last an entire season, and the young kids will almost certainly play their way back into the rotation once one or more of the older guys either get hurt or are proven ineffective. It's nice to have some depth. And who knows? Maybe one of Fogg or Affeldt will be a guy who can net an A-ball prospect come July if the Reds aren't in it.

My interview with J.C. Bradbury: stadiums, spring training, and the Reds' offseason

Dr. J.C. Bradbury is an Associate Professor at Kennesaw State University, and the author of The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, which will be out in paperback on February 26th, and will include updated 2007 player values for all MLB players. He also maintains an active blog at sabernomics.com, and is the creator of PrOPS, a diagnostic hitting statistic that I often use here in my player profiles.

In light of some of the recent news surrounding the Reds, I asked Bradbury if he'd participate in a short e-mail interview, and he kindly agreed. Topics addressed include the public financing of baseball stadiums and spring training facilities, and his takes on the Reds' offseason activities.


Question: I've seen reports critiquing the use of public funds for MLB stadium projects. Hamilton county (through a half-cent sales tax increase) has invested an enormous amount of money into revitalizing the Riverfront area, which has included the construction of the Reds' and the Bengals' new stadiums. How do you view these sorts of stadium projects, from the perspective of economic return to the cities or counties that pay for them?

JCB: The economic return is zero. I have not seen a single study that shows a positive impact from such efforts. The state of the research is such that if an economist attempted to publish another economic impact study, that journal editor would reject the study for being redundant. Spending on sports replaces spending that would have happened anyway. The idea that these projects confer financial benefits is a myth. Any positive return to taxpayers is non-monetary.

And you don't need studies to understand this. I go to about five Braves games a year. It's been 10 years since the Braves started playing at Turner Field (which was the 1996 Olympic Stadium). The area surrounding the stadium is a dump. It's the type of place where at night, you run red lights just to get out of the area faster. There are no restaurants, bars, or shops. Those things are inside the stadium. The same is true for many stadiums around the country.

I have no problem with a community reaching a political decision that it will chose to raise taxes because its citizens value having a sports team. But, it really bothers me when people argue that these projects are beneficial. It is time to be honest and say, "if you want to pay $5 more in taxes a year, we can host a team or have a nicer stadium." As long as everyone agrees that this will cost money, not make it, I have no problem with government choosing to fund such projects.


Question: Sarasota county commissioners recently voted to contribute $17.6 million towards a $41 million renovation of their Florida spring training facility, Ed Smith Stadium. However, their delay in making this decision has resulted in the Reds entering an exclusive negotiation agreement with a Cactus League facility, which lasts through mid-April. Signs are that the Reds will be heading west. Again from the perspective of the cities/counties, to what degree do you think the economic benefits of building and maintaining a spring training facility for a team is worth the cost? Does the ability to attract vacationing fans make spring training facilities a more worthwhile investment?

JCB: It's not like Sarasota won't attract outsiders without spring training visitors. Florida is a nice place to be this time of year. I suspect that the hotels and restaurants will do about the same without the team. I can't imagine that the improvements in Sarasota's stadium will generate enough value in one month to justify nearly $18 million in public subsidies.


Question: Why do you think the Cactus league has been so successful in luring teams--even those not from the West Coast like the Indians and Cubs--away from their former Florida spring training homes?

JCB: I haven't looked at this, but my guess is that they have been able to offer newer and nicer facilities. I suspect that Florida residents know that the tourists will come, with or without baseball, which gives Cactus League hosts an advantage. Taxpayers in Arizona may be more willing to support public subsidies, because they aren't as certain as Florida taxpayers that visitors will come anyway.


Question: Switching gears a bit, the Reds' most significant free agent signing in a long time was the 4-year, $42 million deal they gave to Francisco Cordero this winter. What do you think of this signing?

JCB: This is an awful signing. It is a huge mistake to pay a player who plays so little so much money. Plus, it's a little too early for the Reds to be shopping for a closer. I think the club should have devoted Cordero's salary to improving other aspects of the team. I'm never a fan of paying a reliever big money. But, if you do so, you better anticipate that he's going to get the final out of the World Series.


Question: The Reds have also been involved in trade discussions for players like Erik Bedard and Danny Haren this winter. Both of those deals would have required the Reds to give up at least one, if not more of the Reds' Big Four prospects (Bruce, Votto, Bailey, and Cueto), and the Reds apparently opted not to go this route. How would you rate the relative value of top-tier prospects (~zero service time) compared to a established, still-young players like Bedard or Haren (3-4 years in MLB)?

JCB: I'm not sure. Bedard and Haren are both good with service time left, and to get pitchers like them, you have to give up a lot. Both the Mariners and the D-Backs surrendered a lot. Do you make such a deal? It's just so hard to say. If I am the Reds GM, I wait to see how the season is going. If things go well, then maybe I am willing to move some top prospects. Because, if things don't go well, you've paid a high price to acquire a pitcher that you don't need, and the prospects you do need are gone. This strategy is not without risk, but until the Reds show that they are ready to contend, I think it is unwise to give up too much of the future. So, I think the Reds have done the right thing.


Thanks once again to J.C. Bradbury for participating in this interview!