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Friday, February 15, 2008

Phillips signed to long term deal?

Hal McCoy is reporting on his new blog that the Reds and Brandon Phillips have agreed to a long term contract extension. Terms were not available. We'll see... some of the long term deals that have been signed this offseason have been extremely good deals for the teams, but those usually have been for pre-arbitration eligible players (Tulowitzki, Granderson, etc).

Unfortunately, I'm leaving town for an interview first thing Saturday, and therefore might not have a chance to post an analysis until mid-next week on whatever the deal turns out to be. But I will do my best to break down the deal when I have a bit of time. In the meantime, here's a link to the post where I tried to analyze his arbitration case.


  1. Good luck in your interview Justin! Make sure you tell them that your work cannot infringe on your blogging responsibilities!

  2. Ha! Yeah, I think I'm going to leave the whole blogging thing out of the interview... -j

  3. Reports have it at 4 & 27 with a team option for 2012. A trade makes the options mutual. Looks to be extremely back-loaded.

    If Phillips can maintain that level of performance, it seems the Reds go a solid deal.

    CINCINNATI (AP) — Second baseman Brandon Phillips has agreed to a $27 million, four-year deal, settling the Cincinnati Reds’ final arbitration case.

    The 26-year-old infielder had a breakout season last year, when he joined Alfonso Soriano as the only second basemen in major league history to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases.

    Agents Sam and Seth Levinson negotiated the deal for Phillips, who wants to stay with the team that gave him a second chance by getting him from Cleveland in a trade. Phillips had asked for $4.2 million in arbitration, and the Reds had offered $2.7 million.
    The new contract includes a club option for a fifth season. If Phillips is traded, it becomes a mutual option that would bring the total value of the contract to $43.25 million.

  4. I had him at 3.5 WAR next season, without aging. If we go slightly more pessimistic and assume 0.5 WAR per season aging, that projects him as:
    2008: 3.0 WAR
    2009: 2.5 WAR
    2010: 2.0 WAR
    2011: 1.5 WAR

    That puts him at 9 WAR over the guaranteed part of his contract. Assuming 10% inflation in $ per WAR ($4.4 million this season), and 40%, 60%, and 80% of free agent value in his three years of arbitration, I get a total predicted contract value of $29.9 million over four years.

    To quote Tom Tango, bingo!