Wednesday, October 01, 2008
My 2008 Awards post
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore - 64 RAR, +9 fielding, +2 position adjustment = 76 total value
His team's 0.500 season may have been a disappointment, but Sizemore had a spectacular season. Not only was he an effective offensive force in the pitching-heavy AL, but he played outstanding defense at a premium position. 745 plate appearances batting leadoff in 157 games also helps his cause--playing time matters. Sizemore's 76 total runs above replacement level is a good 1.5 wins better than the next closest player on a playoff team.
2. Alex Rodriguez - 60 RAR, +7 fielding, +2 position adjustment = 69 total value
Rodriguez had a monster year from a rate standpoint relative to the rest of his league. This is also the first year in recent memory (iirc) that he's shown an above-average fielding contribution from the hot corner. But he missed half of May with an injury, and that probably cost him his title this year. Again, playing time matters.
3. Tie @ 61 RAR: Joe Mauer (44 RAR + 7 field + 10 posadj) & Dustin Pedroia (50 RAR + 9 field + 2 posadj)
You can make a legitimate argument that either of these guys should be get the #2 slot instead of Rodriguez, simply because they were so important to teams that made the playoffs (or, in the Twins case, missed the playoffs by a single game). But I'll stick with the stats-based ranking, mostly because I think Sizemore is the AL MVP and so it's kind of a moot point.
Mauer seems to be drastically underappreciated by the press, who focus on his teammate Morneau (who, incidentally, I have ranked 46th in the AL thanks to poor defense at an offensive position). But Mauer, who provides outstanding offense and defense at the most challenging position in baseball, was clearly their best player...and arguably the third most valuable in the league.
Pedroia must continue to generate a huge collective shrug from scouts for his crazy-long swing, but the guy clearly can hit. And he can pick it in the field too, while proving to be quite durable over his first two seasons.
If I have to pick one, I'll go with Mauer, who has a full win lead in WPA over Pedroia.
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols (89 RAR, +20 field, -11 posadj = 98 total value)
His team may have faded down the stretch, but Albert continues to be the standard against which all hitters are judged. The guy's an absolute beast as a hitter (led all of MLB in RAR), and is perhaps the top defensive first basemen in baseball. If you could forecast that a player would be worth ~100 runs above replacement this year, he would have been worth ~$44 million/year on the free agent market. That's ridiculous.
2. Chipper Jones (66 RAR, +14 field, +2 posadj = 81 RAR)
Chipper had an amazing season that like Rodriguez's in the AL was hampered only by a brief time on the disabled list. His '08 numbers indicate that he has been a top fielder this season, and he kept his OPS above 1.000 all season long. Another strong season or two, and he's going to make a pretty strong argument for the Hall of Fame.
3. Hanley Ramirez (69 RAR, +3 fielding, +7 posadj = 80 RAR)
Total value-wise, Ramirez essentially tied Chipper. But I don't trust his fielding numbers, because they've been so positively dreadful up until this season. If they're a small sample size effect (fielding stats need several seasons to stabilize), and he really hasn't improved, he probably should be kicked out of the top spot, giving the #3 position to the eternally underrated Chase Utley. But I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, at least until I see the 2008 Fan's Scouting Report numbers for Ramirez.
Crossovers
Manny Ramirez: 35 total value in the NL + 21 total value in the AL = 56 runs.
Mark Teixeira: 39 total value in the NL + 36 total value in the AL = 74 runs.
I tend to think that the MVP awards (like all of these league-specific awards) need to be based on specific contributions in a given league, but Teixeira's season puts him in the upper eschelon of players, and might have netted him an MVP award if he'd been with the Angels all year. Manny's defense continues to hamper his value, as usual.
AL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay (82 RAR, 74 FIP-RAR)
It's been a two-horse race all year long, but in the end I'm giving the award to Roy Halladay. He led MLB in both RAR and FIP-RAR this season, and that pretty much is the definition of a Cy Young winner in my book. He also led all starters with more than 150 innings in BsR/G. His FIP wasn't quite as good as Lee's this year, but he pitched 23 more innings. That's more than two games when he was on the mound for the Jays, and that's ultimately what pushes him over the top. Dominant season. Again.
2. Cliff Lee (70 RAR, 70 FIP-RAR)
What a freaking improbable season by Lee. He went from battling for a starting job to the second-best season of any pitcher in baseball. There's already been a lot written about him, and there probably would be a lot more this offseason if the Indians had made the playoffs. But this year he saw huge upswings in his strikeout rate, huge decrease in his walks, and even his gb% went up by a good 10% this season. He turned 30 years old on August 30th...so is he a late bloomer, or a one-time flash in the pan? I really have no idea. I guess that's why we have Marcels.
3. Ervin Santana (59 RAR, 56 FIP-RAR)
He comes in a fairly distant third, but Santana continues to be a rather overlooked pitcher. A.J. Burnett actually finished just above him in FIP-RAR, but I'll give it to Santana in recognition of his vastly superior non-DIPSy numbers. Some of that might be luck or fielding, but pitchers do have some control over these things.
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum (70 RAR, 70 FIP-RAR)
Lincecum led the league in both RAR and FIP-RAR, which again makes it pretty easy for me to give him the award* (see note on Sabathia below). How long he'll last is anyone's guess, but I think it's clear that most teams drastically underrated the guy. ... And yes, I'll point out again that the Reds took Drew Stubbs ahead of this guy just three drafts ago. I will probably continue to beat that dead horse until his arm falls off. :)
2 & 3. Tie: Dan Haren (58 RAR, 61 FIP-RAR) & Brandon Webb (66 RAR, 56 FIP-RAR)
I can't decide between AZ's pair of starters. Haren's DIPS numbers are a tad better than Webb's, but Webb had a better BsR/G and threw a few more innings. I always expected that Haren was going to be a quality contributor this season, but I didn't expect that'd he'd be able to be competitive with a guy like Webb. I'd probably still rather have Webb on my team, but that's two Cy Young-caliber seasons in a row from Haren now...and he'll still just be 28 next season.
Crossovers
In case you're wondering, here's C.C Sabathia
RAR: 27 with Cleveland + 50 with Milwaukee = 77 RAR overall
FIP-RAR: 30 with Cleveland + 44 with Milwaukee = 74 FIP-RAR overall
That's essentially tied with Halladay's performance. It's better than Cliff Lee, and better than Tim Lincecum. So, overall, Sabathia is the #2 pitcher of the season. But does that mean that he wins the NL Cy Young? Personally, I'd probably say no, because again it's the NL Cy Young...but it wouldn't take a lot to convince me otherwise.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Evan Longoria (36 RAR, +8 field, +2 posadj = 46 runs above replacement)
After signing an unprecedented contract extension to start his rookie year, Longoria had a magnificent opening season, despite missing a month to injury. His combination of a tremendous offensive threat and plus defense at the hot corner makes him the cream of this year's rookie class. Between Lincecum & Longoria, that 2006 amateur draft is looking pretty darn productive.
2. Mike Aviles (25 RAR, +6 field, +4 posadj = 35 runs)
While fairly old for a rookie at 27 years, and offensively outperforming anything he'd done prior to this year, Aviles rescued the Kansas City shortstop position with his plus defense and gap power. Not sure that he's a good candidate to continue this next year, but he had a great season and is the #2 rookie in the AL by my rankings.
3. Denard Span (27 RAR, +5 field, - 3 posadj = 29 runs)
It may come as a surprise to much of the media, but according to these data, newcomer Denard Span had a better season than teammate Justin Morneau, and was the #2 Twins position player behind Joe Mauer. Not much power from him, but an 0.387 OBP is acceptable production at just about any position.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Geovany Soto (31 RAR, +2 field, + 10 posadj = 43 runs above replacement)
Duh. This one's a no-brainer, right? Soto had an outstanding position at the position that is the most difficult to fill on any major league roster. Terrific offense & competent defense puts Soto's name next to Mauer, McCann, and Martin as the elite catchers in the game today. It turns out, though, that it was closer than I expected...
2 & 3. Tie: Jair Jurrjens (33 RAR, 39 FIP-RAR) & Hiroki Kuroda (43 RAR, 39 FIP-RAR)
This pair of pitchers effectively tied for second in the rankings, just edging out the Reds' Joey Votto. If you go by straight-up RAR, Votto ranks ahead of Jurrjens. But I tend to favor FIP-RAR when evaluating pitchers because we're always dealing with relatively small samples with pitchers--even starting pitchers--and DIPS stats stabilize sooner than traditional statistics.
Jurrjens was acquired in the Edgar Renteria trade, and at 22 years old basically took over the role of ace on the beleaguered Atlanta Braves pitching staff. Clearly, that's looking like a bit of a steal.
On the other end of his career is Hiroki Kuroda, this season's top performing Japanese import. While he may not be in the majors for long at 33 years old, Kuroda stabilized the middle of the Dodgers rotation and is as much of a reason as any for the Dodgers' first division title since 2004.
Preliminary 2008 Total Value Estimates
You can read about all the methods in this series of posts. I have some additional comments on the methods at the bottom of this post for those who are interested.
Features:
- Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
- Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
- Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above replacement).
- League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
- Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).
I'll let you tour through the spreadsheet to see final player rankings. I'll submit a post in a few minutes with my picks for MVP, Cy Young, & Rookie of the Year.
A few additional comments for people interested in methods:
I say that these are preliminary, because there are a few additional adjustments I still have yet to do.
One, these are based on a base runs equation (for pitchers) and linear weights (for hitters) that are all based on 2003-2007 data. I'm going to calculate new equations that are optimized for 2004-2008 data one of these days. It won't make much difference, but the runs environment is decreasing in MLB and so it's worth doing.
Two, there is some discussion again about whether the most appropriate measure of chances for OOZ plays is innings played or balls in zone (BIZ). BIZ has always been a rather shaky estimate, but I've felt it was more likely to reflect the gb/fb tendencies of a given pitching staff. It may, however, confound the results, because it essentially measures chances in regions where OOZ plays were not possible. Innings is less likely to be biased, but is a bit coarser. I may make that change one of these days. This won't make much difference on a gross level, but it could conceivably make a big difference for some individual players with unusually high or low BIZ for their innings played.
One change I have made is that I'm now using the new position adjustment paradigm developed in this thread at Tango's blog. The net effect is to increase the value of skilled infielders (2b, 3b, & ss), and to decrease the value of the center fielders. CF's now have the same defensive value as 2B's & 3B's. C's also get a further boost in this design, whereas 1B's get knocked down a tad. This seems to be more reflective of the current state of thinking of how to rank the different positions than the old scheme. We're talking about a few runs over the course of the season, though, so this doesn't make a big difference.
Watching Griffey
I wonder what it's like for the guy. He's playing a much diminished role with them vs. what he's accustomed to in Cincinnati & Seattle, center field bizzaroness notwithstanding. And he's only been there two months now, so he's essentially a rent-a-player--not a role he's experienced before. I almost felt bad for him when he left the game for a pinch runner today after his double. But at the same time, that's probably how he should be used these days, as Anderson's game-halting catch so clearly demonstrated (Griffey wouldn't have made that play).
I'm sure it's not as sweet as when his Mariners made it to the playoffs back in the '90's. But I'm also sure it feels good to finally be going to a playoff series. I certainly will keep trying to root for them to go all the way.
-j
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Carroll tests positive, suspended
Update:This is a real shame. I have a lot of sympathy for the guys like this, as I can imagine the sort of temptations and pressures that lead them to this. Carroll’s not a top tier prospect, but he’s the sort of guy who could make it to and be successful in the majors if he’s able to develop like we think he can. If you make it to the majors, you get a paycheck and you realize your life’s ambition. If you don’t, you’ve “wasted” most of your life and are left with virtually nothing…
Doesn’t excuse it, and doesn’t make me tolerant of it…but it helps me understand how this kind of thing can happen.
Someone claiming to be Scott’s parents wrote me a few months ago and indicated that he was frustrated by the fanbase down in Sarasota. My reply was bounced back address unknown, so I don’t know if it was real or not. But assuming it was, I wonder if that frustration also was contributing to frustration in his progress through the system or something. We’ll never know.
As for the prospect of releasing him…I’m a liberal, so I believe in redemption. He needs to serve his time, and it will be a set-back for his career. But I see no reason to think that this can’t be a learning experience for him, and that he’ll be back on the field mid-next year looking to prove that he can do it legitimately.
Bumped up from the comments (er...comment), Doug brings news that there may be something else going on here:
Sounds like there is a bit more to the story than what was originally thought.The wikipedia article I linked above also mentions that hCG can be a tumor marker. As a biologist, I wish I knew more about this stuff...but I'm not an endocrine guy. I work on the evolution and neurophysiology of insect eyes. So I'm not going to be of much help.
Interestingly enough, I read something posted by Scott’s brother on Redszone. Sounds like something fishy is going on. Apparently what he tested positive for is something you must inject, not something you could take in a pill/spray form. Scott says he has never injected anything like that and the Reds and himself actually got bloodwork done to refute his positive test. One scary thing is, testicular cancer has been linked to producing what he tested positive for. Apparently there is a history of that in his family and he is being checked for it.
It sounds like Scott and the Reds are on the same page that he didn’t take anything illegal and have tried to show their case. Apparently of the 60+ players suspended recently, over 50 of them tested positive for the exact same substance as Scott. That also comes off as very weird.
It will be interesting to see what comes of it all in the end.
Hopefully everything will check out health-wise for Scott...but if something like this can be medically demonstrated to be the cause of his positive test, I would think that the league would have to release Scott from this suspension. If Doug's quote is right and the majority of minor league suspensions have been for this particular marker--and they indicate something other than drug use--then MiLB may need to modify their testing parameters. I'd much rather err on the side of false negatives than have false positives messing up peoples' careers.
At the same time, if this test helps Scott catch a serious medical problem early, then there's something positive that can come out of this situation as well. We'll see what happens.
I Speaking Statistically
In all seriousness, thanks again to Pizza Cutter for the chance to contribute.
Anyway, click here to see the discussion. We trade views on advances in baseball research, what new data we need to advance fielding statistics, whether one should bring back an ace early for a particularly important game, overlooked players, and what to make of the Astros' recent surge.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Total Value Estimates - Through 5 September, 2008
I've updated the total value estimates for 2008 players. You can read about all the methods in this series of posts.
Features:
- Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
- Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
- Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above replacement).
- League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
- Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).
Note: I've heard a report that someone was getting server errors trying to access this spreadsheet. If you do, please let me know, because I haven't been able to replicate it and want to know how widespread the issue is.
A huge thanks to Joel Luckhaupt, who used his visual basic wizardly to automate the population of my makeshift spreadsheets. Thanks also to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data.
Current MVP Rankings
American League
| Last | First | Lg | Team | Pos | PA | OPS | R/G | RAR | Fielding | PosAdj | TtlValue |
| Sizemore | Grady | AL | CLE | CF | 639 | 0.908 | 7.7 | 62.5 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 76.6 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | AL | NYA | 3B | 524 | 0.997 | 8.4 | 57.9 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 63.0 |
| Pedroia | Dustin L | AL | BOS | 2B | 638 | 0.883 | 6.6 | 47.2 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 53.5 |
| Granderson | Curtis | AL | DET | CF | 534 | 0.898 | 7.3 | 47.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 52.3 |
| Roberts | Brian | AL | BAL | 2B | 626 | 0.838 | 6.6 | 46.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 50.2 |
| Mauer | Joe | AL | MIN | C | 539 | 0.858 | 6.6 | 36.7 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 49.9 |
| Hamilton | Josh H | AL | TEX | CF | 615 | 0.903 | 6.6 | 45.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 49.2 |
| Beltre | Adrian | AL | SEA | 3B | 587 | 0.780 | 5.2 | 25.9 | 22.3 | 0.8 | 49.0 |
| Youkilis | Kevin E | AL | BOS | 1B | 538 | 0.947 | 7.1 | 45.4 | 4.5 | -5.4 | 44.6 |
| Markakis | Nick | AL | BAL | RF | 620 | 0.897 | 7.3 | 52.5 | -3.5 | -5.1 | 44.0 |
Sizemore still has a commanding lead, though A-Rod is holding his own despite 100 fewer PA's. If you value rate stats, you probably go with A-Rod. But if you count playing time, as replacement-level statistics do, Sizemore is the clear choice. Similar offensive contributions, and excellent defense at a premium position.
National League
| Last | First | Lg | Team | Pos | PA | OPS | R/G | RAR | Fielding | PosAdj | TtlValue |
| Pujols | Albert | NL | STL | 1B | 558 | 1.110 | 10.7 | 78.2 | 15.7 | -6.6 | 87.3 |
| Berkman | Lance | NL | HOU | 1B | 584 | 1.027 | 9.1 | 68.0 | 14.6 | -7.1 | 75.5 |
| Jones | Chipper | NL | ATL | 3B | 480 | 1.021 | 9.4 | 56.0 | 10.7 | 0.6 | 67.4 |
| Utley | Chase | NL | PHI | 2B | 620 | 0.925 | 7.1 | 48.6 | 17.5 | 0.8 | 66.8 |
| Ramirez | Hanley | NL | FLA | SS | 626 | 0.926 | 7.9 | 59.2 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 65.2 |
| Beltran | Carlos | NL | NYN | CF | 614 | 0.851 | 6.5 | 40.3 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 56.8 |
| Holliday | Matt T | NL | COL | LF | 562 | 0.974 | 7.9 | 51.9 | 9.2 | -4.6 | 56.6 |
| Wright | David A | NL | NYN | 3B | 641 | 0.897 | 7.0 | 48.2 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 53.7 |
| Giles | Brian | NL | SD | RF | 567 | 0.839 | 6.8 | 40.1 | 16.9 | -4.6 | 52.4 |
| Braun | Ryan J | NL | MIL | LF | 570 | 0.934 | 7.0 | 45.2 | 7.9 | -4.7 | 48.4 |
Current Cy Young Rankings
American League
| Last | First | Lg | Team | IP | ERA | FIP | OPSa | BsR/G | RAR | FIPRAR |
| Lee | Cliff | AL | CLE | 194.3 | 2.32 | 2.60 | 0.601 | 2.82 | 68.7 | 65.9 |
| Halladay | Roy | AL | TOR | 218.0 | 2.64 | 2.98 | 0.621 | 3.04 | 71.8 | 64.8 |
| Santana | Ervin R | AL | LAA | 192.0 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 0.638 | 3.44 | 54.7 | 51.7 |
| Burnett | A.J. | AL | TOR | 193.3 | 4.47 | 3.52 | 0.740 | 4.52 | 31.8 | 45.7 |
| Vazquez | Javier | AL | CHA | 182.7 | 4.34 | 3.41 | 0.747 | 4.43 | 31.9 | 45.5 |
| Mussina | Mike | AL | NYA | 172.3 | 3.39 | 3.34 | 0.729 | 4.12 | 36.0 | 44.3 |
| Danks | John W | AL | CHA | 164.7 | 3.44 | 3.33 | 0.692 | 3.78 | 40.7 | 42.5 |
| Pettitte | Andy | AL | NYA | 188.3 | 4.49 | 3.68 | 0.751 | 4.60 | 29.4 | 41.3 |
| Beckett | Josh | AL | BOS | 154.3 | 4.20 | 3.32 | 0.706 | 3.88 | 36.3 | 40.0 |
| Lester | Jon T | AL | BOS | 181.7 | 3.37 | 3.72 | 0.706 | 3.84 | 43.6 | 39.1 |
National League
| Last | First | Lg | Team | IP | ERA | FIP | OPSa | BsR/G | RAR | FIPRAR |
| Lincecum | Tim | NL | SF | 190.3 | 2.60 | 2.77 | 0.610 | 3.06 | 57.3 | 56.0 |
| Haren | Dan | NL | ARI | 190.0 | 3.41 | 3.00 | 0.664 | 3.41 | 49.9 | 51.1 |
| Webb | Brandon | NL | ARI | 192.0 | 3.19 | 3.13 | 0.628 | 3.10 | 56.9 | 49.0 |
| Lowe | Derek | NL | LAN | 188.7 | 3.53 | 3.28 | 0.652 | 3.43 | 49.0 | 44.8 |
| Sheets | Ben | NL | MIL | 179.0 | 2.97 | 3.17 | 0.660 | 3.45 | 46.2 | 44.7 |
| Hamels | Cole | NL | PHI | 203.0 | 3.01 | 3.47 | 0.634 | 3.18 | 58.4 | 44.1 |
| Billingsley | Chad R | NL | LAN | 175.7 | 3.13 | 3.22 | 0.672 | 3.89 | 36.8 | 43.0 |
| Dempster | Ryan | NL | CHN | 183.7 | 2.99 | 3.38 | 0.630 | 3.24 | 51.6 | 41.7 |
| Volquez | Edinson | NL | CIN | 170.0 | 3.12 | 3.33 | 0.669 | 3.77 | 37.8 | 39.5 |
| Santana | Johan | NL | NYN | 196.0 | 2.71 | 3.77 | 0.660 | 3.69 | 45.3 | 35.9 |