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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Aurilia defeats Astros with 3-run homer

I don't highlight many games, but I do try to at least document some of the most dramatic games over the course of the season. The amazing thing about the Reds is that they've had so darn many of these amazing games this year. For all my frustrations over management decisions, and my ongoing concern about future implosions, these guys just keep on winning.

Last night, it was Rich Aurilia doing the honors, smashing a 3-run homer to tie up a 3-0 lead by the Astros in what had to that point been a frustrating game for the Reds' offense. It sure is fun when they win.

As has become my custom, here is the WPA graph for last night's game, courtesy of If you haven't already, you owe it to yourself to go exploring over at FanGraphs. The WPA graphs are their hottest commodity, but there is far more to the site than just win probability.
One of the interesting things about this graph is that it shows Aurilia's homer as pushing the Reds well over the 50% mark, even though the game was tied at that point. This was caused by two factors: 1. the Reds had more outs left than the Astros at that point in the game, and 2. the Reds possessed home-field advantage.

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