Thoughts on some of today's games. I watched as many as I could tonight, usually fast forwarding until there were runners in scoring position. I'll catch up with the remainder tomorrow--today is probably the largest number of games I get to see and record on Dish, so keeping up will be easier in the future. My picks from my bracket are indicated by an asterisk.
China(*) over Taiwan, 4-1
Ray Chang put on a show. Maybe he's not much of a prospect, but it was a neat story and made the losers' game worth watching. It's also a mild upset, and made me one for one since posting my bracket. :)
Japan(*) over Korea, 14-2
Lee's homer in the first inning off of Dice-K made it seem like it might be interesting. Then the second inning happened. After that, the game was mostly just about waiting for the mercy rule to kick in. I picked Korea to win their next match-up, and I hope I don't regret that.
Netherlands over Dominican Republic(*), 3-2
So at what point did you start to think that the Dominican Republic could lose this game? I think it was after they failed to score in the 7th that I started to realize it was a real possibility. Given that I picked the Dominican to win it all, this could potentially be a problem for my bracket. They'll be back...they just can't lose again.
Anyway, it wasn't the start I was hoping to see by Volquez, but it's not like they were slugging the ball all over the place either--infield hits, errors, a blockable wild pitch, etc. I also have to wonder, assuming the Dominican Republic stays in this, whether Reyes will play some 2B over Cano. I'd sure rather have Reyes and Ramirez over Cano and Ramirez or Cano and Reyes. And Reyes has played there before. I aso cannot fathom why ESPN insists on sending Gary Thorne to do games in Puerto Rico. It's Ta-VER-as, not Ta-VAR-ES. But his lack of understanding of the Spanish language is an old issue...
I pick Canada(*) over the USA
I chose Canada to win this game as a salute to their victory over the USA in the last WBC. And, of course, because they've got Joey Votto. It's about midnight, so it's time to go to bed. Currently, by my DVR, it's a tie game after the bottom of the 2nd. Please, no spoilers. :)
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Friday, March 06, 2009
WBC Brackets
This is kind of late, given that we're already underway. But whatever.
Patriot put out a friendly WBC bracket "challenge." Here's my response:
Dominican Republic (gently) rides Volquez and Cueto to victory. :)
If anyone wants to do their own, here's a blank bracket (filled in through today's game 2 in the Asian bracket). I'll volunteer to score any that are posted elsewhere and/or sent to me (I'll put them on Picasa if enough people submit). 1 point per correct name.
If you need help understanding the bracket rules (especially the drop-down loser brackets), check out Patriot's write-up on how everything works.
Patriot put out a friendly WBC bracket "challenge." Here's my response:
Dominican Republic (gently) rides Volquez and Cueto to victory. :)If anyone wants to do their own, here's a blank bracket (filled in through today's game 2 in the Asian bracket). I'll volunteer to score any that are posted elsewhere and/or sent to me (I'll put them on Picasa if enough people submit). 1 point per correct name.
If you need help understanding the bracket rules (especially the drop-down loser brackets), check out Patriot's write-up on how everything works.
Thursday, March 05, 2009
On the USA Today WBC Story
So I read the USA today article on pitchers.
My feeling is that it's in desperate need of controls and not particularly helpful. Quick thoughts.
1. 2006 is the highest-scoring year of the last five. Trying to point at ERA escalations in that year is a hard thing to do, because run scoring was up across the board. At least the authors did make some attempt to compare those pitchers to the overall MLB population, but they were inconsistent about it.
2. Perhaps more importantly, players chosen for the WBC were chosen in part based on the prior year. When you the players who have a good season that prior year, that sample of pitchers will be more prone to regress the next year than a random selection of pitchers.
Pitchers' ERA's vary a LOT from season to season, so if you choose the top-25 pitchers in a given year and compare their performance in the next season, that elite group will undoubtedly show a larger increase in ERA compared to a random sampling of MLB pitchers. This is classic regression to mean stuff. Maybe I'll run some examples tonight if I get in the mood.
3. Injury stats in that article provide absolutely no comparison to typical injury rates. To my eye, that makes their use border on dishonest and deceptive.
4. How much more were these players used compared to how they would have been used in spring training? How much more intense was the usage? I'm sure it's a bit higher (at least in intensity), but I'm frankly pretty skeptical that it's all that much higher.
My feeling is that it's in desperate need of controls and not particularly helpful. Quick thoughts.
1. 2006 is the highest-scoring year of the last five. Trying to point at ERA escalations in that year is a hard thing to do, because run scoring was up across the board. At least the authors did make some attempt to compare those pitchers to the overall MLB population, but they were inconsistent about it.
2. Perhaps more importantly, players chosen for the WBC were chosen in part based on the prior year. When you the players who have a good season that prior year, that sample of pitchers will be more prone to regress the next year than a random selection of pitchers.
Pitchers' ERA's vary a LOT from season to season, so if you choose the top-25 pitchers in a given year and compare their performance in the next season, that elite group will undoubtedly show a larger increase in ERA compared to a random sampling of MLB pitchers. This is classic regression to mean stuff. Maybe I'll run some examples tonight if I get in the mood.
3. Injury stats in that article provide absolutely no comparison to typical injury rates. To my eye, that makes their use border on dishonest and deceptive.
4. How much more were these players used compared to how they would have been used in spring training? How much more intense was the usage? I'm sure it's a bit higher (at least in intensity), but I'm frankly pretty skeptical that it's all that much higher.
I heart the WBC
The WBC is officially underway! I haven't written much about it yet, but I've been pretty excited for the tournament. And this time, my perception is that despite the vocal naysayers here and there, overall interest in the tournament is better now than it was the first time around.
I was able to attend two games last season--USA vs. Mexico and USA vs. Canada in round one. Unfortunately, much to my surprise, there won't be any games held here in Altoona, PA. So I'll have to settle for TV. But at least I have HDTV this time around on the Deuce (even if I'm a poor Dish subscriber and don't have access to MLB Network).
I think the main reason I like the WBC so much is that it provides some additional context to the players we see in the regular season. I think one of the things that we often lose sight of with the players is their identity as individuals. We see the people on our team as "our" heroes, but the truth is that they're employees of a large conglomerate who ultimately are playing for our team because a) that's who drafted them, or b) that's who offered them the best contract. They will have loyalty to their teammates, and over time some may adopt a city as their second home. But I think for most players, their team and "home" city is just the place where they go to work. That's probably especially true for players born outside of the USA.
My perception is that the World Baseball Classic is different. Players are playing for their true home countries (or, at least, the country of their ancestors). My sense is that many of them take real pride in these games and play them with an intensity that is at least on the level of the regular season, if not the postseason. On top of that, you get to see the fan pride on display from the home countries. Last year, the Mexico vs. USA game was amazing, simply because of the enthusiasm shown by the fans of team Mexico. It verged on a postseason atmosphere, but with a flair that made it distinctly different from what you see from traditional US fans.
On top of that, this tournament should be greatly enhanced thanks to some key rule changes. The most important of these is the adoption of a double-elimination format, rather than the round-robin + ludicrous tiebreakers we saw in the last tourney. As I've written before, that gets these games much closer to feeling like real baseball. It doesn't hurt that at least some of the teams that have been assembled--even if they could have been better--are legitimate squads of all-stars, almost certainly better than any modern MLB team (some, of course, are more on the level of a college squad--but hey, that sets up a neat David and Goliath-type drama).
I'm not sure that the WBC will ever be on the level of something like the World Cup. But I think it's going to continue to grow in popularity and importance over the years. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go finish watching my recording of the China/Japan game while I try to simultaneously grade some papers.
A couple of links:
Patriot has written a few things of late on the WBC. And for the record, despite the fact that I'm a card-carrying liberal and thrilled about Obama, I'm pretty nationalistic myself--and I love to see the nationalism of other countries on display.
Aaron at East Side Chronicle has written a ton about the WBC over the past many months. Here's his WBC 2009 tag link. Everything from rule changes, roster composition, previews of players and teams, etc. Great resource--and always interesting to see the opinions of this event (and others in baseball) from an informed fan/part-time scout living in Far East.
I was able to attend two games last season--USA vs. Mexico and USA vs. Canada in round one. Unfortunately, much to my surprise, there won't be any games held here in Altoona, PA. So I'll have to settle for TV. But at least I have HDTV this time around on the Deuce (even if I'm a poor Dish subscriber and don't have access to MLB Network).
I think the main reason I like the WBC so much is that it provides some additional context to the players we see in the regular season. I think one of the things that we often lose sight of with the players is their identity as individuals. We see the people on our team as "our" heroes, but the truth is that they're employees of a large conglomerate who ultimately are playing for our team because a) that's who drafted them, or b) that's who offered them the best contract. They will have loyalty to their teammates, and over time some may adopt a city as their second home. But I think for most players, their team and "home" city is just the place where they go to work. That's probably especially true for players born outside of the USA.
My perception is that the World Baseball Classic is different. Players are playing for their true home countries (or, at least, the country of their ancestors). My sense is that many of them take real pride in these games and play them with an intensity that is at least on the level of the regular season, if not the postseason. On top of that, you get to see the fan pride on display from the home countries. Last year, the Mexico vs. USA game was amazing, simply because of the enthusiasm shown by the fans of team Mexico. It verged on a postseason atmosphere, but with a flair that made it distinctly different from what you see from traditional US fans.
On top of that, this tournament should be greatly enhanced thanks to some key rule changes. The most important of these is the adoption of a double-elimination format, rather than the round-robin + ludicrous tiebreakers we saw in the last tourney. As I've written before, that gets these games much closer to feeling like real baseball. It doesn't hurt that at least some of the teams that have been assembled--even if they could have been better--are legitimate squads of all-stars, almost certainly better than any modern MLB team (some, of course, are more on the level of a college squad--but hey, that sets up a neat David and Goliath-type drama).
I'm not sure that the WBC will ever be on the level of something like the World Cup. But I think it's going to continue to grow in popularity and importance over the years. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go finish watching my recording of the China/Japan game while I try to simultaneously grade some papers.
A couple of links:
Patriot has written a few things of late on the WBC. And for the record, despite the fact that I'm a card-carrying liberal and thrilled about Obama, I'm pretty nationalistic myself--and I love to see the nationalism of other countries on display.
Aaron at East Side Chronicle has written a ton about the WBC over the past many months. Here's his WBC 2009 tag link. Everything from rule changes, roster composition, previews of players and teams, etc. Great resource--and always interesting to see the opinions of this event (and others in baseball) from an informed fan/part-time scout living in Far East.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Math on the Hernandez + [2009 LF] over Bako + Dunn claim
My claim from the Hernandez piece that his acquisition plus our left fielders may negate the loss of Dunn generated some perfectly justified skepticism over at Redleg Nation. I posted this in the interest of showing my work:
Now, if you give Dunn a boost, subtract away from Hernandez's value due to shoddy defense, and use a more pessimistic projection of Hernandez's offense, then the numbers start to not add up. Even so, I think Dunn is still probably overrated by a lot of fans who don't take into full account his defensive inadequacies. That's not to say that he's not a good player. Just that he's not one that can't be replaced once you start taking into account his defense.Math on the Adam Dunn claim:
Based on my the article, the projected improvement at catcher, assuming average defense (which is probably overly optimistic…), was 20 runs. So, if Dunn’s loss is negated, the difference between Dunn’s projected offense+defense and the 2009 Reds’ left fielder offense+defense must be 20 or fewer runs.
According to CHONE, Dunn projects in 2009 as a +16 RAA hitter per 150g and a -13 RAA fielder per 150g. That makes him a tad above average as a player overall, +3 RAA. I’ll be the first to admit this seems like a low projection for a guy who’s been a favorite of mine for years, but it actually matches his salary pretty well and CHONE’s as good as it gets in terms of projections. CHONE is pretty aggressive about discounting home runs at GABP when projecting players in other parks, so that’s a big part of why Dunn’s rated so “low” on offense.
Here are some of the 2009 Reds LF options, on a per-season basis in left field:
Dickerson projects as a -15 run hitter and a +3 run fielder = -12 RAA left fielder, 15 runs below Dunn.
Gomes projects as a +7 run hitter and a -14 run fielder = -7 RAA left fielder, or 10 runs below Dunn.
Hairston projects as a -12 run hitter and a +4 run fielder = -8 RAA left fielder, or 11 runs below Dunn.
I still think CHONE is underestimating on Dunn, but even if you give him a subjective 5-run bump on offense the difference between the main LF candidates and Dunn is no worse than the projected improvement at catcher with Hernandez & Hanigan vs. the 2008 catchers.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
On Ramon Hernandez
I wrote an article on Ramon Hernandez for SpringTraining09.com that was published today. Here's an excerpt:
Lots of "if"s there, of course...
...
Thanks to everyone who participated in the NL Central chat at BtB today. It was fun--I've never been on the other side before, and it's bewildering. Never quite appreciated the extent to which moderation is needed in that kind of thing, but Sky did a nice job of getting the majority of good questions into the discussion. CoverItLive is a nice piece of software for this purpose, too.
Update: looking at the chat log, looks like I missed a question targeted at me. Here it is:
This offseason, the Reds only made one substantial trade: they acquired Ramon Hernandez and cash from the Orioles for Ryan Freel and a pair of lesser prospects. It didn't receive a lot of attention. Both Hernandez and Freel appear on the decline. Moreover, Hernandez received a lot of criticism about his effort level with the struggling Orioles last season, while Freel has missed enormous amounts of time over the last several years due to injuries. To some, it seemed like a pair of teams that were just swapping problem players.To put it another way, if Hernandez can be an average-fielding catcher, and hit as projected, the boost in offense at catcher plus the defensive gains in the outfield can negate the loss of Adam Dunn.
And yet, it may turn out to be the most important acquisition of the offseason, at least in terms of the Reds' win column. The reason is that Hernandez, even in decline, represents a major upgrade over the 2008 Reds "starting" catcher, Paul Bako.
Lots of "if"s there, of course...
...
Thanks to everyone who participated in the NL Central chat at BtB today. It was fun--I've never been on the other side before, and it's bewildering. Never quite appreciated the extent to which moderation is needed in that kind of thing, but Sky did a nice job of getting the majority of good questions into the discussion. CoverItLive is a nice piece of software for this purpose, too.
Update: looking at the chat log, looks like I missed a question targeted at me. Here it is:
[Comment From Chris Quick (xanthan)]Answer: The Reds had a great opportunity to do so this offseason. Keppinger or Hairston could have been installed at 3B while moving Eddie to LF. But they didn't do it. That means either a) they still think he can improve (which, honestly, at this point seems absurd) or b) they are trying to trade him and think he has more value as a corner infielder. Or c) they just don't realize how bad he is. I think all of these are misguided and not good enough reasons to not move him. But if they weren't going to move him this past offseason, then I don't see how they're ever going to move him.
Question for Justin, will the Reds ever move EE defensively? LF maybe? He's always rated very poorly at 3B.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Chatting Reds Tuesday 3/3/09
Thanks to the arrival of my spring break and thus a small amount of free time, I'm able to participate in a saber-slanted chat about the NL Central organized by Beyond the Boxscore. Also appearing will be Charlie from Bucs Dugout, Evan from The Crawfish Boxes, and Kyle from Brew Crew Ball, plus some of the regulars from BtB. Thanks to Sky for the invite!
The chat will begin tomorrow around 2pm EST, and will run on Coveritlive. Should be fun! Here's your main link.
The chat will begin tomorrow around 2pm EST, and will run on Coveritlive. Should be fun! Here's your main link.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)