Table of Contents

Friday, June 03, 2011

A WBC League (a whimsy)

Several years ago, I put together a custom OOTP baseball league file that was loosely based on the World Baseball Classic.  As I remember, it was a 28-team system (WBC teams, plus a bunch of others I added for fun), two leagues, 3 divisions each, and each team represented a different country.  It was awesome--custom team names, unis, logos, etc.  I think the file has probably vanished into the ether by now...

Anyway, with the news that the 3rd WBC has been expanded to 28 teams, I thought it would be fun to run through the exercise again.

The list of countries can be found in this post...it's a difficult task to make it work.  The main reason is that the teams divide pretty obviously into three major geographic groups: Western Hemisphere (11), Eastern Asia/Australia (8), and Europe/West Asia/Africa (9).  That invites the creation of three separate leagues, with occasional interleague play to keep things interesting outside of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, odd-numbered leagues don't work well scheduling-wise, so I opted to move South Africa from the Europe group over to the Western group.  This is justifiable: South Africa is roughly the same distance from Israel (closest in "Europe" group) as it is to Brazil (closest in Western group).  Unfortunately, the most distant flight will be 1000 miles greater for South Africa under this system.  Sorry, South Africa!  If they opt to withdraw from the league, they would probably either invite a new Western country or just add a second USA team.

So, that gives us three leagues with two to three divisions of 4 teams each.  Here's the layout:
Eastern League
Imperial League
Colonial League
Pacific Division
Australia
New Zealand
Philippines
Chinese Taipei
Eastern Division
Czech Republic
Germany
Israel
Netherlands
Caribbean Division
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Panama
Puerto Rico
Asian Division
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Western Division
France
Great Britain
Italy
Spain
Northern Division
Canada
Mexico
Nicaragua
USA


Southern Division
Brazil
Colombia
Venezuela
South Africa

Here are the divisions visually:

Team Composition and Finances
  • To keep the nationalistic flavor of the league intact, teams would be required to have at least 5 players from the home country on the 25-man team roster.  The other 20 could be from anywhere (still want very high quality of play).
    • Eligibility for home country would follow rules similar to that used in the WBC (i.e. very permissive, but there has to be some legitimate claim).
    • Allowances for temporary drops below this number would be permitted in cases of injury.
  • Substantial revenue sharing would exist to subsidize the budgets of poorer teams.
    • TV contracts would be run entirely by the governing body of the league, and profits would be distributed equitably across teams.
    • The league would subsidize 10% of a player's salary when he signs with a home-country team.  If the TV contracts don't cover this, teams would need to pay into a revenue sharing system.
In-Season Play
  • Teams would compete within their own league, with an unbalanced schedule favoring division rivals.  
  • Because of the difficulty of travel, teams would face off in five-game series (Wed through Sun) throughout the season.  There would be two days off permitted between each series to allow for travel/acclimation.
  • The basic schedule guidelines would be:
    • 60 games within division (two rounds of 5 games home and 5 games away with each of the three teams within the division)
    • 60 games outside of division (six rounds of 5 games home and 5 games away, spread across 4-8 teams)
    • 20 games outside of league (two rounds of 5 games home and 5 games away, spread across three teams)
  • This gives us 140 games across 28 weeks.  That spans roughly 6.5 months, and so would be a tad longer than MLB's season (although with 22 fewer games because of the off-days).
  • The season would run from ~July through mid-January.  Teams in temperate countries, or countries with substantial wet/dry seasons, would need to play the majority of their home games when the whether is appropriate unless they build climate-controlled, covered stadiums (retractable roofs would be mandatory, of course).
Playoff Structure
  • Each division winner would be guaranteed a playoff slot.  That gives us 7 playoff teams for a traditional three-stage playoffs.  
  • The eighth team would be chosen from four wild card teams (based on best overall records of non-division winners), who would compete in a College World Series-style, two-losses-and-you're-out tournament in a single location (would rotate around the three leagues each year).  
  • The remaining playoffs would be typical best-of-7 series, again with two days off in between each game for travel.
Some notes & implications
  • Pitching rotations would be interesting.  I suspect that many teams would attempt to throw their ace starter in the first game and then on short rest in the 5th game during important series.  This could be done every third series to give the starter (alternately) three days rest, four days rest, and seven days rest.
  • Because the season is shorter, it would take a bit less skill to win a division than in MLB.  That said, the talent disparities may be greater among teams than in MLB because of the 5 home country player requirement.  I would expect better teams to win more often than not.
  • Some divisions will feature lower levels of competition than others.  The Northern, Carribean, and Asian Divisions should be very competitive.  The Imperial League divisions will probably be less so.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Musings on the World Baseball Classic Expansion

The World Baseball Classic is apparently expanding from 16 to 28 teams.  The wrinkle is that those 12 new teams, plus four of the mainstay countries in the last tournament, will compete in a "play-in" round during Fall 2012.  Four teams will emerge from this round to enter the main tournament in Spring 2013.

So, the teams guaranteed a spot in the Spring 2013 tournament are:
Australia
China
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
Puerto Rico
United States
Venezuela

They'll be joined by four of:
Canada*
Chinese Taipei*
Panama*
South Africa*
France
Spain
Great Britain
Germany
New Zealand
Colombia
Nicaragua
Brazil
Izrael
Thailand
Czech Republic
Phillipines
* = played in 2009 WBC

The "play-in" teams will be divided into four pools.  I don't know how that is going to work, but here's a guess, simply based on time zone geography:

Americas
Brazil
Colombia
Panama*
Nicaragua
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic
Germany
Israel
South Africa*
Eastern Asia
Chinese Taipei*
New Zealand
Philippines
Thailand
Western Europe
Canada*
France
Great Britain
Spain
Obviously the regional names are poorly chosen, as there are countries that don't fit.  But it helped me keep track of things to use a geographic name.  The biggest oddball is Canada, but I unfortunately don't see a way to put it in the "Americas" group with all of those countries being so close to one another.  Aside from that, it makes a lot of sense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the WBC follow this very scenario.  It also has the advantage of having one "incumbent" team in each group.  Without knowing a lot about international baseball, I'd guess that they also would represent the putative favorites in each pool--although South Africa would seem to be the weakest of the bunch.  There was a small league (for a year) in Israel, and I'm pretty sure that Germany has some kind of semi-pro baseball league.

Anyway, I don't know how this will all shake out, but I enjoy thinking about stuff like this.

Monday, May 30, 2011

Scorecard - 5/29/11 Braves over Reds

Kept score.  It was a fun game to watch, except that the Reds didn't win it.  I don't know if Janish was safe either.

The general state of the Reds fan right now seems to be one of anger and frustration, with a tad of hopelessness.  I feel a bit of that, though at the same time I feel like the team is still showing signs of quality.  They still play good defense.  Their offense is still at least average.  And their pitching, I think, is better than the on-field results indicate.  It doesn't help that 2/5 of the expected rotation is injured (and roughly that ratio has been injured all year), and they're in the middle of this this streak of...what, 34 games in 35 days?  The team still has resiliency, and has good pieces all over the place.  The might just not have enough great pieces.

But all's not lost.  They're only (as I write this) 4.5 games out.  If Arroyo's back is ok, and if Volquez can indeed get at least back to competency, their rotation might finally start to stabilize.  Really, one good winning streak, and the Reds are right back with there with the Cardinals.  Right now, BPro's PECOTA projects the Reds to finish with 82 wins.  THT's Oliver has them at 88 wins.  I think that represents the most likely range of possibilities from here on out...though if they're out of that range, I think they're more likely to miss low than high.

As for me and this site, I think I may try to post here a bit more often for now.  It's fun to have my own place to ramble again, even if no one reads it.  But my main outlets will continue to be at Red Reporter and Rotographs.  Speaking of which, I have started doing series previews at RR.  Last week's was on the Braves, while today's is on the Brew Crew.  I also appeared in FanGraphs Audio last week.  Havin' fun...

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Horst promoted to Reds

Lefty reliever Jeremy Horst was promoted to the Reds today, the latest in a musical chair sequence of pitchers to arrive on this long road trip. Horst was converted back to relief last year after a one-year stay as a starter. He has posted good to solid k-rates, solid walk rates, and roughly average ground ball rates.

Perhaps the most important thing is that he's a lefty. As the lone left-hander in the pen, Bill Bray has gotten a ton of use lately, and might not be available tonight. And even if he is, this gives the Reds more options in the middle innings. We'll see how long he's here!

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Changes I'd like to see in baseball

Wishlist for the next CBA, in bullet form:

  • No more home plate collisions.
  • Bats should be equipped with something like the batglove to prevent spears from flying around the field (or stands).  No more Tyler Colvin incidents.  Next time, somebody is going to die.
  • Add a second wild card team and the wild card series, but structure it so that the winning wild card team will have a disrupted pitching rotation for the division series.  The easiest way is to do a 1-game wild card series.
  • (this isn't actually a change, but...) Do not implement a hard slotting system for the draft.  Its main effect will be to send players to other sports.
  • Allow for the trading of draft picks, though no more than two drafts in advance.

Home Plate Collisions

Buster Posey broke his leg last night in a collision with Scott Cousins. The play was deemed "clean," but it nevertheless means that Posey will likely miss the rest of the season.

Last year, Carlos Santana injured his knee on a similar play. He missed the rest of his rookie season.

I just don't get why this has to continue: there is no obvious reason to me why collisions at home plate should continue be permitted. If they did not exist, would they be invented? No, I don't think they would. And it isn't like they remove all excitement from the game. Rather than a collision, wouldn't you instead want to see something like this?



Players are getting hurt. Beyond this being a workplace issue for them, their injuries means that we don't get to see exciting players play. Let's fix this.

It's an easy solution too.  The play is already illegal.  Catchers shouldn't block the plate without the ball, and baserunners should never be permitted to crush the opposing team's catcher.

Follow-ups
After writing this, I discovered I was not the only one having these same thoughts:
  • Rob Neyer talks about it, and he's right. 
  • Tom Tango talks about it, and proposes and an even more extreme solution.  I don't think force-outs are necessary.  Let's just enforce the rules that are already on the books and keep baserunners from knocking over catchers.
  • Also, Dave Cameron.  Nice quote from Kevin Millar.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Scorecard - 5/9/11 Reds over Astros

No, probably not starting up with the blog again. But I wanted to post this scorecard from the Reds/Astros game on May 9th. 'Cause there's no way you could get this info by opening up MLBAM Gameday, nosir.