May 2007 Reds Review Part 3: Hitting and Pitching

Teaching summer session has sapped away a lot of my time and energy this month. Given that it's already mid-month in June, I'm going to forgo the in-depth May graphical hitting and pitching analysis. Nevertheless, for posterity, here are hitting and pitching stats for May, with limited commentary.

Hitters

Name	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	BIPaOPS	wOBA	RC	SB	SB%
K. Griffey	134	14%	15%	0.282	0.306	0.403	0.595	0.288	0.998	1.013	0.409	27	2	100%
A. Dunn	121	34%	13%	0.327	0.252	0.355	0.573	0.320	0.928	0.900	0.389	21	2	67%
B. Phillips	128	15%	5%	0.320	0.294	0.336	0.496	0.202	0.832	0.802	0.350	20	3	60%
A. Gonzalez	123	18%	4%	0.224	0.228	0.285	0.482	0.254	0.767	0.883	0.326	16	0	0%
S. Hatteberg	82	10%	11%	0.317	0.310	0.402	0.521	0.211	0.924	0.904	0.402	15	0	---
E. Encarnacion	71	10%	8%	0.283	0.286	0.366	0.476	0.190	0.842	0.876	0.369	11	0	---
R. Freel	101	13%	6%	0.263	0.242	0.287	0.400	0.158	0.687	0.755	0.298	11	3	60%
D. Ross	77	36%	10%	0.306	0.232	0.312	0.464	0.232	0.775	0.774	0.306	10	0	---
N. Hopper	53	17%	2%	0.442	0.365	0.377	0.462	0.096	0.839	0.613	0.368	9	3	60%
J. Hamilton	60	15%	5%	0.267	0.255	0.300	0.418	0.164	0.718	0.766	0.310	7	2	67%
J. Conine	64	9%	13%	0.280	0.259	0.344	0.296	0.037	0.640	0.660	0.298	6	1	100%
J. Valentin	25	4%	4%	0.182	0.208	0.240	0.417	0.208	0.657	0.876	0.278	2	0	---
C. Moeller	20	35%	0%	0.333	0.250	0.250	0.400	0.150	0.650	0.615	0.278	2	0	---
J. Castro	31	19%	0%	0.240	0.200	0.194	0.233	0.033	0.427	0.512	0.185	1	0	---
J. Keppinger	9	0%	11%	0.250	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.583	0.685	0.280	1	0	---

Comments:

• The most impressive thing about Griffey's brilliant month? He may have actually been a bit unlucky. His BABIP was only 0.282, and my BABIP-adjustment to OPS would put him 0ver 1.000 on the month. Amazing.
• Dunn looked like the Dunn we almost take for granted. But my goodness, if you take away the last two months of the '06 season, how many players have been as consistently productive at the plate over the past three and a half seasons?
  
• Phillips' month was solid, but somehow looks a bit disappointing for a guy who had a 22-game hitting streak in May. As always with him, it's that OBP that brings him down. Still, he's a middle infielder with nice power, and has the second-best range in baseball this year at 2B. When all is said and done, he may turn out to be Krivsky's best pickup.
  
• Gonzalez looked like he had turned back into a pumpkin, but his May BABIP was an absurdly low 0.224. He's having a heck of a resurgence at the plate this year. Now if only his glove was equal to the hype...
• Did I mention that Eddie Encarnacion is back? 'Cause he is. Welcome back, Eddie.
• Hopper's 0.839 OPS on the month was driven almost entirely by his 0.442 BABIP. It's been fun, but he won't maintain this level of productivity.
• On the other side of the coin, Valentin looks like he was much better than his 0.657 OPS would indicate, thanks to a very unlucky 0.182 BABIP. My BABIP-adjustment to OPS puts him in the mid-0.800's for the month.
  

Pitching

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	R/9	ERA	FIP
A. Harang	42.7	6.7	1.9	0.8	0.275	4.43	4.22	3.69
M. Belisle	38.3	6.1	1.6	1.2	0.357	5.64	4.93	4.17
B. Arroyo	37.7	5.7	4.5	0.7	0.347	6.92	6.45	4.55
K. Lohse	32.3	4.5	2.2	1.1	0.362	7.24	6.41	4.75
V. Santos	19.0	7.6	3.8	1.9	0.334	5.68	5.68	5.52
D. Weathers	14.0	9.6	4.5	0.0	0.265	5.14	5.14	2.77
K. Saarloos	11.7	3.1	5.4	0.8	0.341	9.23	9.23	5.42
M. Stanton	11.3	7.2	4.8	0.0	0.441	6.37	5.58	3.73
T. Coffey	11.3	5.6	4.8	3.2	0.236	3.98	3.19	8.16
J. Coutlangus	11.0	5.7	4.1	0.8	0.281	4.91	4.91	4.47
E. Milton	10.3	4.4	3.5	0.9	0.352	6.99	6.12	4.66
B. Salmon	10.0	9.0	3.6	0.9	0.174	4.50	4.50	4.00
J. Burton	8.3	9.8	3.3	1.1	0.250	7.59	4.34	4.40
B. Livingston	5.3	1.7	1.7	1.7	0.429	6.79	6.79	5.84
G. Majewski	2.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.455	6.67	6.67	3.57

Comments:

• Harang continues to underperform his peripherals. But I'd rather have that then the other way around, even if it means poorer in-game performance, because solid FIP predicts future success. He's a good one.
• Belisle, Arroyo, and Lohse all look ok when judged by their peripherals and FIP, even if they got severely lit up on the month. Look at those BABIP's. It's hard to imagine that much of your pitching staff running into that much bad luck at once, but that's exactly what happened in May. Of course, Bronson's 4.5 bb/9 and Lohse's 4.5 k/9 didn't help much.
  
• Not looking ok is Coffey. What the heck happened? I can write off the hr/9 to bad luck. But 4.8 bb/9? That's very uncharacteristic for him.
• Speaking of uncharacteristic, David Weathers struck out more than a batter per inning in May. But he also walked 4.6 bb/9, which is high for him. His FIP looks great, but his ERA didn't. I'm still worried about him. If the Reds can trade him soon and get something valuable in return, I think they should cash in now.
  
• I mentioned this over at Red Reporter, but Stanton seems to be more a victim of bad luck than of being a bad pitcher. His peripherals on the season are right in line with his career norms, and his 3.73 FIP in May was in stark contrast to that 5.58 ERA. Hang with him, I think he's still a quality reliever.
• Both Salmon and Burton reached the 9 k/9 barrier on the month.