Table of Contents

Friday, June 15, 2007

May 2007 Reds Review Part 3: Hitting and Pitching

Teaching summer session has sapped away a lot of my time and energy this month. Given that it's already mid-month in June, I'm going to forgo the in-depth May graphical hitting and pitching analysis. Nevertheless, for posterity, here are hitting and pitching stats for May, with limited commentary.

Hitters
Name PA %K %BB BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS BIPaOPS wOBA RC SB SB%
K. Griffey 134 14% 15% 0.282 0.306 0.403 0.595 0.288 0.998 1.013 0.409 27 2 100%
A. Dunn 121 34% 13% 0.327 0.252 0.355 0.573 0.320 0.928 0.900 0.389 21 2 67%
B. Phillips 128 15% 5% 0.320 0.294 0.336 0.496 0.202 0.832 0.802 0.350 20 3 60%
A. Gonzalez 123 18% 4% 0.224 0.228 0.285 0.482 0.254 0.767 0.883 0.326 16 0 0%
S. Hatteberg 82 10% 11% 0.317 0.310 0.402 0.521 0.211 0.924 0.904 0.402 15 0 ---
E. Encarnacion 71 10% 8% 0.283 0.286 0.366 0.476 0.190 0.842 0.876 0.369 11 0 ---
R. Freel 101 13% 6% 0.263 0.242 0.287 0.400 0.158 0.687 0.755 0.298 11 3 60%
D. Ross 77 36% 10% 0.306 0.232 0.312 0.464 0.232 0.775 0.774 0.306 10 0 ---
N. Hopper 53 17% 2% 0.442 0.365 0.377 0.462 0.096 0.839 0.613 0.368 9 3 60%
J. Hamilton 60 15% 5% 0.267 0.255 0.300 0.418 0.164 0.718 0.766 0.310 7 2 67%
J. Conine 64 9% 13% 0.280 0.259 0.344 0.296 0.037 0.640 0.660 0.298 6 1 100%
J. Valentin 25 4% 4% 0.182 0.208 0.240 0.417 0.208 0.657 0.876 0.278 2 0 ---
C. Moeller 20 35% 0% 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.150 0.650 0.615 0.278 2 0 ---
J. Castro 31 19% 0% 0.240 0.200 0.194 0.233 0.033 0.427 0.512 0.185 1 0 ---
J. Keppinger 9 0% 11% 0.250 0.250 0.333 0.250 0.000 0.583 0.685 0.280 1 0 ---
Comments:
  • The most impressive thing about Griffey's brilliant month? He may have actually been a bit unlucky. His BABIP was only 0.282, and my BABIP-adjustment to OPS would put him 0ver 1.000 on the month. Amazing.
  • Dunn looked like the Dunn we almost take for granted. But my goodness, if you take away the last two months of the '06 season, how many players have been as consistently productive at the plate over the past three and a half seasons?
  • Phillips' month was solid, but somehow looks a bit disappointing for a guy who had a 22-game hitting streak in May. As always with him, it's that OBP that brings him down. Still, he's a middle infielder with nice power, and has the second-best range in baseball this year at 2B. When all is said and done, he may turn out to be Krivsky's best pickup.
  • Gonzalez looked like he had turned back into a pumpkin, but his May BABIP was an absurdly low 0.224. He's having a heck of a resurgence at the plate this year. Now if only his glove was equal to the hype...
  • Did I mention that Eddie Encarnacion is back? 'Cause he is. Welcome back, Eddie.
  • Hopper's 0.839 OPS on the month was driven almost entirely by his 0.442 BABIP. It's been fun, but he won't maintain this level of productivity.
  • On the other side of the coin, Valentin looks like he was much better than his 0.657 OPS would indicate, thanks to a very unlucky 0.182 BABIP. My BABIP-adjustment to OPS puts him in the mid-0.800's for the month.
Pitching
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP R/9 ERA FIP
A. Harang 42.7 6.7 1.9 0.8 0.275 4.43 4.22 3.69
M. Belisle 38.3 6.1 1.6 1.2 0.357 5.64 4.93 4.17
B. Arroyo 37.7 5.7 4.5 0.7 0.347 6.92 6.45 4.55
K. Lohse 32.3 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.362 7.24 6.41 4.75
V. Santos 19.0 7.6 3.8 1.9 0.334 5.68 5.68 5.52
D. Weathers 14.0 9.6 4.5 0.0 0.265 5.14 5.14 2.77
K. Saarloos 11.7 3.1 5.4 0.8 0.341 9.23 9.23 5.42
M. Stanton 11.3 7.2 4.8 0.0 0.441 6.37 5.58 3.73
T. Coffey 11.3 5.6 4.8 3.2 0.236 3.98 3.19 8.16
J. Coutlangus 11.0 5.7 4.1 0.8 0.281 4.91 4.91 4.47
E. Milton 10.3 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.352 6.99 6.12 4.66
B. Salmon 10.0 9.0 3.6 0.9 0.174 4.50 4.50 4.00
J. Burton 8.3 9.8 3.3 1.1 0.250 7.59 4.34 4.40
B. Livingston 5.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.429 6.79 6.79 5.84
G. Majewski 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.455 6.67 6.67 3.57
Comments:
  • Harang continues to underperform his peripherals. But I'd rather have that then the other way around, even if it means poorer in-game performance, because solid FIP predicts future success. He's a good one.
  • Belisle, Arroyo, and Lohse all look ok when judged by their peripherals and FIP, even if they got severely lit up on the month. Look at those BABIP's. It's hard to imagine that much of your pitching staff running into that much bad luck at once, but that's exactly what happened in May. Of course, Bronson's 4.5 bb/9 and Lohse's 4.5 k/9 didn't help much.
  • Not looking ok is Coffey. What the heck happened? I can write off the hr/9 to bad luck. But 4.8 bb/9? That's very uncharacteristic for him.
  • Speaking of uncharacteristic, David Weathers struck out more than a batter per inning in May. But he also walked 4.6 bb/9, which is high for him. His FIP looks great, but his ERA didn't. I'm still worried about him. If the Reds can trade him soon and get something valuable in return, I think they should cash in now.
  • I mentioned this over at Red Reporter, but Stanton seems to be more a victim of bad luck than of being a bad pitcher. His peripherals on the season are right in line with his career norms, and his 3.73 FIP in May was in stark contrast to that 5.58 ERA. Hang with him, I think he's still a quality reliever.
  • Both Salmon and Burton reached the 9 k/9 barrier on the month.