Table of Contents

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

CHONE projections released

Sean Smith has released his 2009 hitting projections just in time for the holidays (pitching projections are forthcoming). This year, he's doing it all on a new site dedicated to his projection work. Here are the Reds.

These are my projections of choice. They are essentially our best estimate of a player's true talent level moving forward. While you have other options, it's worth noting that in a comparison earlier this year, Tango found that CHONE was routinely at or right near the top of the projection systems. I consider these to be every bit as good as PECOTA. Except that they're free.

Also, unlike Marcels, which I talk about frequently around here, CHONE does include minor league statistics, and so it's appropriate to use it as a forecasting system for rookies or players for whom we have little information (e.g. Ryan Hanigan is projected at -13 runs/season on offense next year, or 12 runs above replacement).

CHONE also has fielding projections (which I've mentioned a lot lately) but that site has somehow disappeared in the past week or so. Sean has assured us that they will return. And once they are available, we will be able to easily calculate projected total value for 2009 players. This, provided we have decent playing time projections, will be a great tool to evaluate future deals this offseason.


Also, FWIW, depending on the contract, I like the idea of signing Rocco Baldelli. Projected at 5 runs above average per season by CHONE, or ~30 runs per full season. No idea if he can play a full season, but recent news about his health is promising. The guy can field too, iirc.