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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

CHONE projections released

Sean Smith has released his 2009 hitting projections just in time for the holidays (pitching projections are forthcoming). This year, he's doing it all on a new site dedicated to his projection work. Here are the Reds.

These are my projections of choice. They are essentially our best estimate of a player's true talent level moving forward. While you have other options, it's worth noting that in a comparison earlier this year, Tango found that CHONE was routinely at or right near the top of the projection systems. I consider these to be every bit as good as PECOTA. Except that they're free.

Also, unlike Marcels, which I talk about frequently around here, CHONE does include minor league statistics, and so it's appropriate to use it as a forecasting system for rookies or players for whom we have little information (e.g. Ryan Hanigan is projected at -13 runs/season on offense next year, or 12 runs above replacement).

CHONE also has fielding projections (which I've mentioned a lot lately) but that site has somehow disappeared in the past week or so. Sean has assured us that they will return. And once they are available, we will be able to easily calculate projected total value for 2009 players. This, provided we have decent playing time projections, will be a great tool to evaluate future deals this offseason.

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Also, FWIW, depending on the contract, I like the idea of signing Rocco Baldelli. Projected at 5 runs above average per season by CHONE, or ~30 runs per full season. No idea if he can play a full season, but recent news about his health is promising. The guy can field too, iirc.

8 comments:

  1. The Reds are a lot worse offensively than I had expected (and I expect them to be bad). Only three positive projections? They really need some help.

    Interesting that he has Keppinger outperforming Phillips. My guess is the general public sees it as BP > Kepp > EdE. Any idea why he didn't project Gonzalez? Does missing one year screw his projections up that much?

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  2. Yeah, not good. You generally want to have above-average hitters if you want to have a team that wins more than it loses. :D

    Re: Phillips vs. Keppinger, the big difference there is playing time projection, I think. I just ran wOBA's on Rally's numbers, and Kepp comes out at 0.339 and Phillips comes in at 0.338. Not sure why that results in as large a R150 gap as it does, though, as Kepp's projected playing time isn't that much smaller (certainly isn't half). I'll have to ask.

    I'll see if he can do Gonzalez as well--I think he generally just goes off of who played last year.
    -j

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  3. Yeah, the lack of OBP on this team is scary. As far as I can tell, only 2 of the 8 regulars (Votto and EdE) have above average on base skill. I do feel like Bruce is capable of a larger leap forward than is projected here, but I know that most projections anywhere tend to hedge.

    That's why I feel like paying a premium for Bradley or Burrell is preferable to saving money and signing a guy like Baldelli or Rivera. Rivera had some on base skills back in the day, but CHONE has him back down in the .330s.

    This pitching staff will only be together for another couple seasons, and I believe a bounceback from Harang and progression from Cueto will mean even fewer runs allowed than last season. It's imperative to put at least an average offense out there to take advantage of the staff.

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  4. The Reds do need some help offensively. I think Dickerson is undervalued. I see him having a solid OBP.

    Edwin and Brandon need to step up offensively.

    The seeking a RH bat is traditional thinking and not looking at the Reds biggest problem last year. The biggest problem with the offense was we struggled big time vs Right Hand pitching. We nearlty dead last in all metics. Vs lefties we were middle of the pack. What really hurts is that 2/3 of our abs were against Righties.

    So IMO to improve the offense the most you need to find hitters that hit RH pitching. That is why Guys like Dye and Abreu are more valuable since they are equally effective vs Right and Left handers. If we get guys like Burrell and Wiggington who have a hard time against RH pitching will make our problem even worse.

    With guys like Abreu too many says you can not have 3 lefties in a row but if you look at 2005 Reds who lead the NL in scoring they had Casey/Jr/Dunn in a row. If at least two of the lefties can can hit lefties it does not matter.
    Patrick

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  5. I'll add Gonzalez to the next round of projections. A missing season doesn't really hurt my ability to project, I was pretty close on Sammy Sosa's 2007 comeback.

    But I have to remember to tell the program that the reason he didn't play was an injury, not a retirement. A poster on my blog, Aaron B, reminded me about Kevin Frandsen, so if I missed anyone else put a note on the blog.

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  6. Those are really depressing numbers. Let's hope we overperform.

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  7. On Rocco, the +5 runs is +5 per 150 games. He's certainly not a +30 player, but he is good if healthy.

    On BP and JK: It is as I said. Put them in a park that depresses homers but helps all types of balls in play, and Keppinger projects to 299/351/410, and Phillips 266/316/421.

    But Phillips is better suited to the Great American ballpark, and their WOBA's are about equal.

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  8. I saw elsewhere that you're using 20 runs as the gap between replacement level and average. I was using 25. That's part of why I overestimated Baldelli (and everyone else above).

    Interesting stuff on Phillips. GABP's such a weird park. I never would have guessed that it helps him that much, but then I guess I generally just look at runs park factors and don't worry so much about HR park factors. Looks like I should.
    -j

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