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Thursday, December 17, 2015

Comps for Peraza & Schebler

Scott Schebler the next Josh Donaldson?
Well, no.  Photo credit: Dustin Nosler
Chris Mitchell at FanGraphs ran his KATOH system on the Reds' new prospects, and posted tables showing their comparables in his system.  Comparables are always flawed...but they are still interesting.  Here's what he had for Peraza and Schebler:

Jose Peraza

Top Comps: Miguel Cairo & Joaquin Arias
Best-case Comps: Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Young (sr.), Adam Kennedy, Damion Easley, Omar Infante.

We all know Miguel Cairo, he of the good season or two as a super-utility guy for the Reds.

Joaquin Arias is currently on a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks entering his age-31 season.  He didn't show Peraza's speed in the minors, but he certainly profiles as a high-contact, low-walk, minimal-power infielder.  Across 1100+ PA's, he has 0.3 WAR to his name, mostly driven by his baserunning (+2 runs over his career).

Of the good comps, Ellsbury, Young, and Easley always walked.  Omar Infante wasn't exactly patient, but also had acceptable walk numbers in some of his minor league seasons.  But Adam Kennedy seems about right for a good-case comp.  He wasn't patient, but developed modest power, and made enough contact to get his OBP up high enough to be a decent starter at second base.  He peaked out as a 3-win player for the Angels from 2002-2005...And then played for the Cardinals while now-Reds President Walt Jocketty was the GM in 2007.  So.

Needless to say, none of this is making me feel much better about him as a prospect.  Mitchell correctly points out that Peraza has been playing at very high levels for his age.  That's probably the best thing you can say about him right now.

Scott Schebler

Top Comps: Benji Gil, Josh Wilson
Best-case Comps: Ian Kinsler, Vernon Wells, Josh Donaldson

Benji Gil and Josh Wilson had similar walk- and strikeout profiles to Schebler, and flashed modest power in the minor leagues.  Neither posted the kind of home run production that Schebler has, however.  Wilson has never translated any of that power in the major leagues, whereas Gil at least had a few decent season in part-time roles for the Rangers and Angels.  The difference, however, is that Gil and Wilson both broke in as shortstops.  Schebler, on the other hand, is limited to the corner outfield, and there's no indication that he has any hope of being better than average over there (...and he's probably worse than average).

Those upside comps, though, are enough to make me a little giddy inside.  Until I go back and read the scouting questions on Schebler.  He's not going to be one of those guys.  But maybe he can still help the team, at least in a platoon role.

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