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Monday, February 19, 2007

Lincoln and Lincecum

I've been a bit hard on the Reds for taking a pass on Tim Lincecum in last year's amateur draft in favor of Drew Stubbs (0.252/0.368/0.400 in rookie ball). Lincecum has been nothing but brilliant for the Giants (31.7 IP, 58/12 k/bb, 1.73 ERA across A- and A+ ball last season), who took him two picks after the Reds, and there is even word that he might compete for a spot in the rotation this season. He's look awfully good in the Reds' system right now.

Nevertheless, Kevin Goldstein reported in today's baseball prospectus that another of the top college pitchers in the draft, Brad Lincoln, is feeling "irritation" in his elbow and may be sidelined for up to a month. That's far from a career-ending injury (hopefully), but it's a good reminder (to me, at least) that there is significant risk in taking college pitchers who have had heavy inning loads like Lincoln or Lincecum. College hitters are far more reliable...I just wish I had more confidence that Stubbs is going to hit well enough to make it to the majors and be at least a decent hitter.