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Monday, February 19, 2007

Lincoln and Lincecum

I've been a bit hard on the Reds for taking a pass on Tim Lincecum in last year's amateur draft in favor of Drew Stubbs (0.252/0.368/0.400 in rookie ball). Lincecum has been nothing but brilliant for the Giants (31.7 IP, 58/12 k/bb, 1.73 ERA across A- and A+ ball last season), who took him two picks after the Reds, and there is even word that he might compete for a spot in the rotation this season. He's look awfully good in the Reds' system right now.

Nevertheless, Kevin Goldstein reported in today's baseball prospectus that another of the top college pitchers in the draft, Brad Lincoln, is feeling "irritation" in his elbow and may be sidelined for up to a month. That's far from a career-ending injury (hopefully), but it's a good reminder (to me, at least) that there is significant risk in taking college pitchers who have had heavy inning loads like Lincoln or Lincecum. College hitters are far more reliable...I just wish I had more confidence that Stubbs is going to hit well enough to make it to the majors and be at least a decent hitter.

5 comments:

  1. The thing that worries me about Lincecum is both his size and his mechanics. The Giants pitching coach does not like his mechanics, but the owner stepped in and said that no one is allowed to tinker with Lincecums mechanics. Something seems wrong to me when a non baseball guy steps in to tell a coach, not to try and coach a player.

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  2. I definitely agree. If the delivery is a potential problem--especially in terms of injury, but also in terms of control lapses or something similar--now's the time to try to fix it. You can always go back.

    Unless the owner has genuine expertise, I agree, they should rely on their people to do the coaching. -j

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  3. woulda/coulda/shoulda. Sigh.

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  4. I watched every one of Lincecum's college outings except one or two and I've always been irritated with the notion that exists that his delivery or mechanics are problematic ... In my opinion, his mechanics are perfect and put much less strain than normal on his arm. Unusual, perhaps, but to me, his delivery should be copied, not changed. For a guy his size to get that much velocity and NEVER be sore or miss a turn or anything of the nature tends to show that he's doing something very right, not wrong. (not to pick on anyone here ... you're not the first to repeat the idea that his delivery raises questions).

    Of course, only time will tell.

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  5. Anonymous, thanks for your comment! It's good to hear from someone who has watched Lincecum closely. -j

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